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In Week 16, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens are in for one of the more interesting games of the 2024 NFL season.
On one hand, the game is on a Saturday, which technically happens every year but is a bit of a left turn when it happens every year, especially with a slate of games on Christmas coming up this Wednesday. The game also has incredible ramifications on the playoffs depending on which team wins and how the rest of the weekend shakes out, with the potential for the AFC North to be clinched or broken wide open, depending on how things shake out.
And last but not least – one could actually argue most – is the fact that it's the Steelers versus the Ravens, which is among the biggest rivalry games in all of football, nay, sports, period.
Now granted, the Steelers have been coming out on top more often than not in these outcomes, and it's been seriously bothering the Ravens to the point where Marlon Humphrey has made it his mission to beat Pittsburgh on the way to a very Baltimore playoff berth.
“I didn't know that it was eight out of the last nine until the last game, but it bothers me,” Humphrey told reporters. “When I found out, it was surprising, but I know the guys in the locker room, we want to win this rivalry. Eight out of the last nine [games] – it's not a good number at all. So, the focus has to be at a premium this week, and it's going to take a lot to get that back on our side, but you want to be able to beat your rival.”
Does Humphrey have a reason to be upset by the fact that the Steelers consistently eat the Ravens' lunch? Sure, that must be incredibly frustrating, but will that additional motivation be enough for Baltimore to secure the win in Week 16? That will be easier said than done, as there's a reason why the Steelers have been so effective in this feud as of late: they are a very good team. In a game that could come down to execution over talent, the margins all ultimately define which team comes out on top in this one.
1. The Steelers and Ravens run for under 300 rushing yards combined
If there's one thing the Steelers and Ravens both like to do, it's run the ball.
Ranking in the top 10 in rushing attempts and yards on the season, even if the Ravens have been far more efficient, Pittsburgh and Baltimore both like to establish the run before they air it out, forcing stacked boxes to really open up the passing game.
Unfortunately for, well, both teams, really, stopping the run is kind of a calling card for both the Steelers and Ravens as well, with the former having the fourth-ranked rushing defense with 1,321 yards allowed and the Ravens performing even better, allowing just 1,130 rushing yards through 15 weeks despite facing off against prolific rushing teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Chargers, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Now granted, neither team is at 100 percent going into the contest; the Steelers have Larry Ogunjobi questionable for the game, and the Ravens have given Odafe Oweh the same designation. TJ Watt looked questionable for the game for much of the week, and even though he's been given the green light to go in this game, he might be limited, too. Still, when you consider just how important slowing down the run is to both teams, expecting either to put up big numbers on the ground is incredibly unlikely, leading to this game being a pass-first showdown between two very different teams.
2. The Steelers do their best to test the Ravens' passing defense
For much of the 2024 season, the Ravens have been the unfortunate owners of the worst passing defense in the NFL.
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In Week 16, they've officially ditched that title, though not by much, with Baltimore now only ranking 31st against the pass, 3,625 yards through the air on 526 attempts. Now, normally, that would have an opposing team licking their chops, as even a team as inept as the Giants was able to flirt with 300 passing yards against the Ravens' defense with a backup under center, but can the Steelers really be trusted to do the same? They are without George Pickens for the second week in a row and struggled to get much going from a passing perspective in Week 15 against an Eagles defense that is as good as it gets through the air.
Was that just a byproduct of facing the architect of the NFL's in-vogue defensive scheme? Or are the Steelers just not that good of a passing offense without their top guy? In Week 16, if the Steelers' passing offense looks like Week 15 instead of Week 14, not even mentioning their incredible efforts in Week 13, it will be incredibly hard to win this game in a commanding fashion, if at all. Mike Williams, Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin, it's time to step up or watch as fans in the Steel City beg desperately for a reunion with Diontae Johnson, who might just be the only man who can fix this offense until Pickens is able to finally come back into the lineup at full strength.
3. The Steelers have tough conversations after a Week 16 loss
When the Steelers played the Ravens earlier this season, they benefitted from one of the worst games you will see all year from Lamar Jackson.
That's right, despite being arguably the NFL MVP in 2024, turning in the best season of his NFL career versus a resume with an actual MVP Award on it, Jackson was making poor decisions, airballing passes to receivers, and, ultimately, playing losing football where he is usually the engine of winning.
But why? Sure, the Steelers have a good rushing defense, but their passing D isn't exactly prolific, ranking 22nd overall. They are the best team in the NFL when it comes to turnover differential, from making smart decisions with the ball on offense to forcing big plays on defense, and very few opposing quarterbacks have been immune to that fact. And yet, in Week 16, it took a pick, two forced fumbles, and an uncharacteristically inefficient performance by an MVP-caliber QB to squeak out a two-point win at home.
Is that trend sustainable? Can the Steelers go from allowing almost 300 yards to Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, who rank dead last in passing offense, to holding Jackson at bay for the second time in as many months? Will Russell Wilson turn in another massive performance through the air like his Week 13 effort down his top receiver, or will a game manager-y game prove simply not enough to get Pittsburgh where it needs to be?
Are the Steelers a better team than the Ravens overall? Maybe yes, maybe no, but right now, Pittsburgh is missing key pieces where it matters most, is coming off of a surprisingly lopsided loss, and is playing an opponent who is absolutely desperate to pull out a win in front of their hometown fans just before Christmas. If that isn't a recipe for a loss, I don't know what is.
Fortunately, even if the Steelers lose, they will still be playoff-bound and could end up playing Baltimore a third time depending on who ends up winning the division.
