The Tampa Bay Buccaneers head north to Highmark Stadium for a pivotal Week 11 showdown against the Buffalo Bills. Both teams sit at 6-3 and eager to rebound after tough losses. Tampa Bay’s 28-23 defeat to the New England Patriots last week left fans frustrated. The defense allowed multiple explosive plays and failed to close out drives. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been the team’s heartbeat this season. However, his margin for error remains thin. Against Buffalo, he’ll need to protect the football and stay composed against one of the league’s most opportunistic defenses. For a Buccaneers squad fighting to keep pace in the NFC playoff race, this game feels like a crossroads.
Buccaneers seek redemption
The Bills, meanwhile, are coming off a 30-13 meltdown against the Miami Dolphins that cost them the AFC’s top seed. Josh Allen looked out of sync. He committed two turnovers and failed to sustain drives in key moments. Despite the setback, Buffalo remains a dangerous opponent. They boast one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses and a top-10 rushing attack. Yet, the cracks are showing, particularly on defense. Their 153.2 rushing yards allowed per game is the most in the league. It's a weakness the Buccaneers could exploit if they can finally get their run game rolling. The outcome may hinge on which version of each team shows up: the disciplined contender or the error-prone pretender.
Both teams enter Week 11 licking their wounds, but one will emerge rejuvenated. Buffalo is 4-1 at home this season and has typically thrived in cold-weather matchups. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is 2-2 on the road. The conditions, intensity, and stakes all point toward a hard-hitting battle. It's one that could define the rest of the Buccaneers’ season.
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Here we will look at and discuss some bold predictions for the game between the Bills and the Buccaneers in week 11 of the 2025 NFL season.
Baker Mayfield’s turnovers prove costly
For all his competitive fire, Mayfield still has one Achilles’ heel: his decision-making under pressure. When blitzed or forced off script, he tends to revert to risky throws. Against a Bills defense desperate for redemption, that’s dangerous. Buffalo’s pass rush, led by Greg Rousseau and Joey Bosa, can collapse pockets in a hurry. Their secondary also thrives on capitalizing off tipped passes. After recording zero takeaways in Week 10, the Bills’ defense is primed for a rebound game.
Mayfield will turn the ball over twice, both of which result in Buffalo points. Expect the Bills’ defense to play aggressively early. They will bait Mayfield into forcing throws downfield. Tampa Bay’s offensive line has been inconsistent in pass protection, especially on the edges. If the Buccaneers fall behind early, Mayfield will have to throw into tighter windows. That's a formula that often ends poorly. Sure, Mayfield’s competitive streak keeps the Buccaneers in most games. However, turnovers could once again swing momentum the wrong way in Week 11.
Buccaneers’ run game comes to life
For all of Tampa Bay’s offensive struggles, there’s reason for optimism on the ground this week. The Buccaneers’ run game has a favorable matchup against a Buffalo defense ranked 30th in run defense DVOA. The Bills have been shredded by opposing running backs all season. The loss of key interior defenders has also left their front seven vulnerable.
The Buccaneers could take full advantage with a balanced rushing attack featuring Rachaad White and potentially the return of Bucky Irving. White’s dual-threat ability out of the backfield has quietly kept the offense afloat.
The Buccaneers will rush for 150+ yards and score at least one touchdown on the ground. They will prioritize ball control to keep Josh Allen off the field. In the cold, windy conditions of Orchard Park, a strong ground game might be the key to keeping this one competitive deep into the fourth quarter.
Josh Allen torches Buccaneers’ defense
As good as Tampa Bay’s defensive front can be, its secondary remains a glaring weakness. That's bad news when facing Allen. After a lackluster outing against Miami, Allen is due for a statement performance. It's hard to imagine a better setup. Tampa Bay has struggled to defend mobile quarterbacks and vertical passing attacks. They rank in the bottom third of the league in opponent yards per play.
Allen’s ability to extend plays with his legs and attack downfield could prove fatal for the Buccaneers’ defense. Expect him to target Keon Coleman and Dawson Knox early and often. Allen’s efficiency at home has been impressive this season, too. Now, he faces a tired Bucs defense that could lead to another big night.
Allen will surpass 300 total yards and account for three touchdowns. He will silence doubts about Buffalo’s offensive rhythm. Sure, Tampa Bay’s defensive line might generate occasional pressure. However, Allen’s escapability and quick release will neutralize much of it.
Bucs lose another one
This Week 11 clash feels like a defining moment for both clubs. A win keeps either team comfortably in the playoff picture. On the flip side, a loss tightens the pressure and exposes deeper flaws. For Tampa Bay, injuries and inconsistency on both sides of the ball continue to plague their momentum. Without Chris Godwin and Irving at full strength, the Buccaneers simply lack the firepower to match Buffalo’s offensive versatility.
Buffalo, buoyed by a home crowd and a sense of urgency, should deliver a controlled and convincing victory, 27-17. Allen’s aerial dominance and a rejuvenated defense will prove too much.
The Buccaneers will fight hard but fall short. They will be undone by turnovers and an inability to contain Allen’s dual-threat brilliance. The silver lining? A stronger run game and competitive spirit that suggest Tampa Bay isn’t out of the playoff picture just yet.
