Two teams with playoff aspirations collide in Orchard Park this Sunday as the Buffalo Bills (6-3) host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) in a crucial Week 11 matchup. Both teams are coming off frustrating losses, and both desperately need a bounce-back performance to stay in the thick of their respective playoff races.
High-stakes Week 11 showdown
The Bills surpisingly fell flat in a 30-13 loss to the Miami Dolphins. Quarterback Josh Allen has faced criticism for inconsistency, but the Bills’ ground game, anchored by James Cook, has been a rare point of reliability.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, suffered a tough 28-23 loss to the New England Patriots. It slipped through their fingers in the final minutes. To make matters worse, the Buccaneers will be without several key offensive weapons. These include wide receiver Chris Godwin and running back Bucky Irving. That puts added pressure on quarterback Baker Mayfield to carry the offense. The Bucs will now face a Bills offense that ranks among the league’s most explosive when firing on all cylinders.
Despite both teams sharing identical records, the contrasts are sharp. Buffalo’s defensive struggles against the run are well-documented. They are allowing a league-high 153.2 rushing yards per game. On the flip side, Tampa Bay’s depleted ground attack may not be able to capitalize. Conversely, Tampa’s pass defense has been susceptible to breakdowns in recent weeks. The question isn’t which team wants it more. It's which one has more left in the tank to correct its flaws.
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Here we will look at and discuss some bold predictions for the game between the Buccaneers and the Bills in week 11 of the 2025 NFL season.
The Bills’ defense and shuts down Buccaneers’ deep threats
Buffalo’s defense was embarrassed in Week 10. Against the Dolphins, they gave up multiple chunk plays and looked disorganized in coverage. Expect defensive coordinator Bobby Babich to respond with a far more aggressive game plan against the Buccaneers. The Bills’ defense has been at its best when forcing opponents to play short-field football. They will return to that formula in Week 11.
The Buccaneers’ depleted receiving corps plays right into Buffalo’s hands. With Mike Evans and Godwin sidelined, Mayfield will be forced to rely on depth receivers who don’t stretch the field in the same way. The Bills’ secondary will crowd intermediate routes and make Mayfield win through precision. Expect cornerback Tre'Davious White and safety Jordan Poyer to play key roles in limiting Tampa’s downfield options. Buffalo allows fewer than 200 passing yards and keeps Tampa Bay’s longest play under 25 yards.
James Cook takes advantage
Sure, the spotlight often shines on Josh Allen. However, it’s James Cook who could be the game’s true difference-maker. Tampa Bay’s run defense surrendered 166 rushing yards to New England last week.. With top defensive tackle Ben Bredeson sidelined, the middle of the Buccaneers’ defense looks vulnerable.
Cook has also emerged as one of the most efficient backs in the league. Buffalo’s offensive line has quietly improved in run-blocking, and the coaching staff has shown more commitment to the ground game in recent weeks. Look for Cook to eclipse 120 total yards and find the end zone at least once. Against a Tampa Bay defense that’s reeling, Cook’s performance could set the tone early and often.
Baker Mayfield’s turnovers prove costly
Baker Mayfield has played inspired football this season. When pressured, though, his old habits tend to resurface. The Bills will look to exploit that tendency. After recording no takeaways in Week 10, Buffalo’s defense is due for a breakthrough performance. With Greg Rousseau and Joey Bosa coming off the edge, the Bills have the personnel to make Mayfield uncomfortable from the opening snap.
Mayfield turns the ball over at least twice, both of which lead to Buffalo points. The Bills’ defensive front will keep Mayfield under constant duress. Meanwhile, the secondary’s improved communication should lead to better positioning on tipped passes and misreads. If Buffalo can generate early pressure, the game could snowball quickly in their favor.
Bills survive in a must-win game
This matchup feels like a crossroads for both teams. A win keeps each squad firmly in the playoff picture. Conversely, a loss could start a dangerous slide toward the Wild Card bubble. However, the edge belongs to Buffalo. The Buccaneers’ injuries on offense strip them of their ability to fully test the Bills’ weaknesses. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s balanced attack is built to thrive at home. Josh Allen will do just enough through the air. The combination of Cook’s rushing and a rejuvenated defense will secure a much-needed victory for Buffalo, 27-17.
The Bills may not be perfect, but they’re resilient. At Highmark Stadium, they’ve been dominant. Expect a statement performance from Buffalo’s defense, a ground-heavy offensive game plan, and a much-needed rebound win that reaffirms their place among the AFC’s elite.
