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In Week 15 of the 2024 NFL season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a chance to take a commanding lead in the NFC South, recording their fourth-straight win to either maintain their lead over the struggling Atlanta Falcons – who get to play against a Maxx Crosby-less Las Vegas Raiders – or jump up to a two-game lead with three games left to go in the regular season.
That's right, after struggling with consistency earlier in the season, winning a tough game one week only to lose an easy one the next, the Buccaneers have seemingly found a winning formula to keep things going on the ground with the one-two punch of Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, picking up at least 150 yards on the ground in each of the last three games since the bye. Irving has thrust himself into the Offensive Rookie of the Year conversation; White is having his most efficient season as a pro, averaging 4.2 yards per carry versus a 3.8 career average; and even Baker Mayfield has gotten in on the fun, picking up 241 rushing yards on 45 attempts plus three rushing touchdowns on the ground to go with his 28 passing TDs.
Needless to say, this has the potential to be a seriously special weekend for the Buccaneers, but for that to happen, Tampa Bay will need to beat a Los Angeles Chargers team that is very good, having won five of their last seven games, including Ws against the Denver Broncos, the Cincinnati Bengals, and those pesky Atlanta Falcons. Will the Buccaneers be able to take care of business against a John Harbaugh-led Chargers team that has almost won twice as many games as they did in 2024 with four games left to play? Needless to say, this is going to be a quarterbacks duel, but the Buccaneers might just have enough talent around their signal caller to secure a win at the end of a sweet LA December Sunday.
1. Baker Mayfield steps up to the occasion in Week 15
In 2024, Mayfield has turned in a B+ season.
On one hand, he's turned the ball over a few more times than most fans would like, throwing the ball to the other team 13 times, fumbling it 12 more, and taking 32 sacks on the year, which isn't technically a turnover but does set his offense back and can be a sign of a quarterback who isn't making the most decisive decisions with the ball. When Mayfield was playing on a seven-figure contract instead of one with eight zeros overall, that wasn't a huge deal, as the Buccaneers were effectively playing with house money, but now? Mayfield is supposed to play like a $100 million man, as that's what the Buccaneers are paying him to do.
And yet, when the Buccaneers need him most, Mayfield often rises to the occasion, but don't just take my word for it, as Harbaugh had similar to say in the lead-up to the game.
“Yeah, he's a winner. I think the thing that strikes me, I mean, about him, I mean, you see a ton of quarterbacks try to emulate him, copy him,” Mayfield told reporters. “He's that guy. He's that guy that he plays his best when his best is needed most.”
Completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 3,329 yards and 28 touchdowns, Mayfield is a huge reason why the Buccaneers are in first place in the NFC South with just four games left to play. Even going up against the eighth-ranked passing defense in the NFL, with a challenging secondary headlined by Derwin James, expect Mayfield to make some important passes if the Buccaneers secure the win and for the Heisman trophy winner to make some crucial mistakes if they come up short.
2. Justin Herbert can stress the Buccaneers' defense too
While the Chargers' brass fully know that Mayfield can turn in an incredible effort when his team needs him, the Buccaneers have similar feelings about LA quarterback Justin Herbert, who might just be the best quarterback in the NFL who only throws the ball 28 times per game, which ranks 30th in the NFL through 14 weeks.
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Discussing the challenge Herbert presents heading into Week 15, Buccaneers' offensive coordinator Liam Coen perfectly explains what makes the Oregon product special, noting that he can produce as well as anyone in the NFL.
“You're still talking about arguably a top-ten quarterback across anybody's board in the league. [He] has all [the] arm strength, athletic, can run, can make all the throws, but the way they utilize him in their system – they're buying into the culture change [of] running the ball, then when everybody cuts off the run, they're throwing over their head. That's exactly what they're doing,” Coen told reporters.
“[Ladd] McConkey is having a heck of a year, but you know, if you watch the routes he's getting, everybody is getting sucked up trying to stop [the run], and he's fast and elusive and making a lot of plays. It's all what you see, from the way they're utilizing the quarterback is kind of into the culture that they want. We all know he can throw it 40 times a game if need be, but that's just not the way they play.”
While the Chargers don't throw the ball a ton, opting to instead focus more on strong defensive play and a commitment to moving the ball on the ground, when they do, Herbert has been darn impressive, completing 63.9 of his passes for 2,764 yards, 14 touchdowns, and just one interception in 13 games. While those numbers aren't particularly impressive, they show a quarterback who simply doesn't make many mistakes, which, unfortunately, is a stark contrast to Mayfield, who tends to turn over the ball at least twice per game.
3. The Buccaneers' run game proves the difference in Week 15
Whether you like Mayfield's risk-it-for-the-biscuit approach or Herbert's safe style of supplemental passing in Harbaugh's system, it's safe to say the two signal-callers are more or less a wash, right?
Sure, but one aspect of the game where the Buccaneers have a clear advantage is in the running game, with the dynamic duo of Irving and White running for at least 150 yards in each of the last three weeks, whereas the Chargers have had to put a bigger workload on Gus Edwards' shoulders after J.K. Dobbins was placed on IR. Now granted, Edwards is still a good player, but Dobbins was having a by far better season of the two Baltimore transplants, and his presence will certainly be missed in Week 15.
Factor in the fact that the Buccaneers have a better rushing offense and rushing defense than the Chargers, and it's safe to assume that Todd Bowles, Coen, and company will be able to lean on their run game like LA did earlier this year. Tampa Bay should be able to control the clock, limit Mayfield's mistakes by setting him up with easy situations on third downs, and in the end, secure their eighth win of the season on the way to another trip to the playoffs.
