Cam Ward wasn't the most highly touted number one pick ever, but the 2025 first overall selection of the Tennessee Titans was still expected to be a superstar. The Titans are struggling, and thus far, the rookie from Miami hasn't met expectations. Ward has plenty of time to reach his potential, but his uninspiring start has fans concerned that he could be on a draft bust trajectory. So, how does Ward stack up to other recent number one picks at the quarterback position, as well as other signal callers who were drafted high but ended up failing? Can Ward still become a star, or does his rough start have him down a scary path that he may never recover from?
How has Cam Ward's rookie season compared to Bryce Young's?
Being the number one pick doesn't guarantee success, but it comes with lofty expectations. Number one picks are supposed to become future Hall of Famers, especially when they play the quarterback position. Players such as Peyton Manning and John Elway are prime examples of what a QB taken 1-1 should be. Others haven't been so lucky, though, including some recent players taken at the top of the draft.
Bryce Young, for example, has been battling the bust label since being drafted. The Carolina Panthers gave up a surplus of capital to move up and take Young, but he was benched early in his second season. Young is back to starting for the team now, but the results have been mixed.
When looking back at Young's rookie season in 2023, it becomes painfully clear that his first season, which set his career off on the wrong foot, looked eerily similar to Ward's first year. Young went 2-14 in 16 starts, and he only threw for 2,877 yards and 11 touchdowns to go with 10 interceptions. After a zero-touchdown, zero-interception game in Week 13, Ward's touchdown-to-interception ratio stays at seven-to-six. Neither player had the worst interception problem ever, but neither of them found much success punching the ball into the end zone in year one. Ward has 2,210 passing yards through 13 games, which ranks 18th in the league. Young's 2,877 yards as a rookie were the 20th most.
If Ward continues on a Bryce Young-like trajectory, then Titans fans will have every right to be worried. Young has flashed throughout his career, but more often than not, he has looked below average. He definitely hasn't impressed as much as the player who was drafted right after him. C.J. Stroud has had his own issues over the last two years, but his rookie season was the stuff of legend, and his ceiling seems to be much higher.
How does Cam Ward stack up to recent No. 1 picks?
Ward's early-career performance is most reminiscent of Young when it comes to recent number one picks, but quarterbacks Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, and Jared Goff have all been drafted with the first pick within the last decade as well.
Williams was criticized after his rookie season, but that is perhaps because hype was built so high when he was drafted. He actually had one of the best quarterbacking seasons in Chicago Bears history as a rookie, and he has been even better in year two. Williams already has the Bears looking like Super Bowl contenders. He threw for 2,722 yards and 17 touchdowns as a rookie, and so far, he has 3,541 yards and 20 touchdowns in year two.
Burrow, of course, has been one of the best players in the NFL since he stepped foot on the field for the Cincinnati Bengals. He is an MVP-caliber player when healthy, but injury issues have been what have most plagued the former LSU player, who was responsible for one of the greatest Heisman-winning seasons ever. Burrow was limited to 10 games because of one such injury during his rookie season, but he has since led the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns in a season. He also led the Bengals to a Super Bowl appearance.
Lawrence was one of the most highly touted prospects of the 21st century when the Jacksonville Jaguars took him in 2021. He has been somewhat mediocre for much of his career, but he still has two 4,000-plus-yard seasons to his name. He has the Jaguars lined up to make the postseason this year. Lawrence had 3,641 yards and 11 touchdowns as a rookie, but he also led the NFL with 17 interceptions.
Excluding Young, Murray has been perhaps the most disappointing first-overall pick quarterback over the last decade. Although he is dealing with a foot injury, some have called the Arizona Cardinals' decision to put him on injured reserve a “soft” benching. Murray was the first overall pick in 2019. He showed promise with 3,722 yards and 20 touchdowns through the air and 544 more yards on the ground as a rookie, but he has, for the most part, regressed ever since then.
Mayfield and Goff, the 2018 and 2016 first overall picks, respectively, have had resurgences later on in their career. Mayfield did find more success than most quarterbacks with the Cleveland Browns, but they moved on from him nonetheless, which led to a journeyman arc for a couple of seasons. He has landed on his feet as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, though. The Browns should have never given up on Mayfield. His rookie season was evidence enough, as he had 3,725 yards and 27 touchdowns that year.
Goff now leads one of the best offenses in the NFL with the Detroit Lions. He only played in seven games as a rookie, so his statistics of 1,089 yards and five touchdowns greatly underwhelmed. He eventually led the Los Angeles Rams to a Super Bowl appearance, though, and now he regularly surpasses more than 4,000 yards per season.
How does Cam Ward compare to recent draft busts?
Of the aforementioned players, none of them are surefire busts, and only Young, Murray, and Lawrence can even be talked about in draft bust conversations. They are all solid players, but it can be concluded that they have yet to become as great as they were billed to be coming out of college.
There have been some clear-cut draft busts at the quarterback position who were drafted after the first selection in recent years. Zach Wilson was taken second overall in 2021, Trey Lance was taken one pick later, and Anthony Richardson was the fourth pick in 2023.
These quarterbacks were taken not long after pick number one and became not just some of the biggest draft busts in recent memory, but in NFL history. Ward already has more career passing yards than Lance (1,153), and he should pass Richardson (2,400) in his next game. Those players were bad enough that their respective teams were never even willing to give them much of an opportunity. Wilson lasted three years as the starter of the New York Jets, but those years weren't pretty. In 13 games as a rookie starter, Wilson had 2,334 yards for nine touchdowns, which are numbers that Ward sits around after 13 games in his own right.
Ward already seems to have avoided all-time bust status. He will need to vastly improve to meet the expectations that come with being the number one pick, though. Luckily, Ward has plenty of time to do so, although the NFL is in an era where young quarterbacks have extremely short leashes. The Titans seem poised to land the number one pick yet again, and they need to surround their franchise player with playmakers.
A lot of recent quarterback draftees struggled early before figuring things out later. It is worrisome how little Ward has produced thus far, but a lot of his struggles could be attributed to the players around him. Tennessee's offensive line is terrible, and the receiving corps is arguably the worst in the NFL. Ward has some special traits; he may just need time to put everything together.
