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As improbably as it may sound, the Washington Commanders are sitting pretty at 3-1 through the first month of the 2024 NFL season. They've beaten up on a division rival, secured the win against a one-time Super Bowl favorite, and in Week 4? In Week 4, Jayden Daniels took care of business against the Cardinals in a blowout win reminiscent of Arizona's Week 2 efforts against the Los Angeles Rams.
Suddenly, accolades are pouring in, Daniels is the Rookie of the Year favorite, and both Brian Johnson and Kliff Kingsbury are heading coaching favorites in 2025, which felt impossible even four months earlier.
And the best part? The legend of Dan Quinn's Commanders may only continue to grow in Week 5, as they are facing off against a Cleveland Browns team with some flaws on both sides of the ball and even more external questions about the direction of the franchise. Buckle up, Commanders fans; this has the makings of another marquee matchup for Washington's finest.
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1. Jayden Daniels' completion percentage finally comes back to earth
Through the first four games of the 2024 NFL season, no quarterback in the NFL has been more accurate than Jayden Daniels.
After only completing 70.8 percent of his passes in Week 1, Daniels hit the 79.2 percent mark in Week 2, the 91.3 percent mark in Week 3, and then fell back to earth slightly in Week 4, where he only completed 86.7 percent of his career-high 30 passing attempts. But how? Well, part of it has to do with Washington's passing strategy, as Daniels is only averaging 8.5 yards per attempt and 10.3 yards per catch, but the real key actually comes in the run game.
You see, where some quarterbacks might take questionable shots downfield or throw a pass out of bounds to avoid the rush if nothing is there, Daniels just takes off running, picking up a few yards on the ground instead of an incompletion.
Unfortunately for Daniels, his incredible, NFL-leading completion percentage should be tested in Week 4, as the Browns' defense has been pretty stingy against the pass.
While the Browns have only allowed 703 passing yards on the season, good for the tenth fewest in the NFL, they've been targeted 121 times but only allowed 71 completions, good for a 58.7 percent completion percentage. Dak Prescott completed 59.4 percent of his passes in Week 1, Trevor Lawrence completed 46.6 percent of his passes in Week 2, Daniel Jones completed 70.6 percent of his passing yards in Week 3, and Gardner Minshew came in right at the middle at 14-24 for 130 yards and a completion percentage of 58.3.
Throw that all together, and the chances of even an incredibly accurate passer like Daniels connecting on 82.1 percent of his passes just feel incredibly unlikely.
Fortunately, even if Daniels only completes 70, 60, or even 50 percent of his passes, that shouldn't limit his ceiling overall against Jim Schwartz's defense, as even if he throws for less than 200 yards – the Browns are averaging 175.75 per game – the pride of LSU can still attack opposing defenses with more than just his arm.
2. Brian Robinson Jr. and Jayden Daniels run wild
While the Browns are a pretty good passing defense, they haven't been particularly effective in the run game on either side of the ball.
On offense, the Browns have recorded just 379 rushing yards on 88 attempts, good for the 26th best mark in the NFL. But on the defensive side of the ball? They've been far less effective, allowing 493 yards and five touchdowns on 107 attempts, good for an average rush of 4.6.
Now, part of this inefficiency on offense can be explained by the absence of Nick Chubb, who still hasn't seen the field in 2024, but their defensive issues are harder to identify, as they really hadn't changed much from 2023 when they had a much better run defense. With the same starting defensive line minus Maurice Hurts – who is on IR – but with the addition of Ogbo Okorokwo and an improved linebacking corps headlined by the additions of Devin Bush and Jordan Hicks, the Browns should be able to hold things down in the middle of the defense.
Unfortunately, it hasn't worked out as well as Schwartz might have hoped, as they rank 19th in rushing yards allowed through four games.
The Commanders, by contrast, rank third in rushing yards and fourth in rushing attempts in the NFL at 677 and 134, respectively, with their ten rushing touchdowns the best mark in the NFL. With Brian Robinson Jr. leading the way at 307 rushing yards on 66 attempts and Daniels following close behind with 2018 yards on 46 attempts, Kliff Kingsbury has orchestrated a rushing attack that plays to his team's strengths, and it's worked remarkably well despite having a middle-of-the-pack offensive line.
Even if the Browns sell out on giving Daniels fits through the air, it's hard to imagine a world where they allow less than triple-digit rushing yards in Week 5, as the Commanders are averaging 169.25 rushing yards per game and don't have a game below 100 yet this season.
3. The white-hot Commanders bully the Browns
So, if the Commanders are able to run wild on the Browns even if Daniels has a, by his stands, poor passing game, Washington should still eke out a win, right?
Yes, even if they began the season expected to finish third or fourth in the NFC East, the Commanders have proven themselves a legitimate playoff contender in the division, sitting in sole possession of first place through four games. Unless things really fall apart or Kingsbury turns into a pumpkin in October, the Commanders have to be considered the favorite not just in Week 5 but at least in four of their next five games, minus maybe Baltimore in Week 6; they're just that good.
