The Toronto Maple Leafs can close out the series after winning three straight over the Tampa Bay Lightning. It is time to continue our NHL odds series with a game five Lightning-Maple Leafs prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Toronto got an overtime goal to seal the win in game four. Depending on which side you are rooting for, it was either an amazing comeback or an epic collapse. Tampa Bay scored at the 18:49 mark of the second period to give them a 4-1 lead heading into the last frame. With under 11 minutes left to go, it was still 4-1. Then Auston Matthews scored. Then Auston Matthews scored again. Finally, Morgan Rielly put one in to tie the game and the game went to overtime. In overtime, the Maple Leafs got their second power-play goal of the night and a win.
Here are the Lightning-Maple Leafs NHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NHL Playoff Odds: Lightning-Maple Leafs Odds
Tampa Bay Lightning: +1.5 (-200)
Toronto Maple Leafs: -1.5 (+162)
Over: 6.5 (-110)
Under: 6.5 (-110)
How To Watch Lightning vs. Maple Leafs
TV: TBS
Stream: NHLPP/ESPN+
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT
*Watch NHL games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Lightning Could Cover The Spread
The Lightning are now on the verge of elimination. After three straight Stanley Cup finals run, the streak could be over, and now must win three in a row to get back in this series. They need to back to game one and the play they had there. In that game, they scored seven goals on 34 shots. They scored four times on the power play, had positive puck control, and had solid goaltending. Since then, very little of that has been true.
In the three-game losing streak, they have scored on the powerplay just once, been outshot twice, and shot over 32 times just once. They have let in four power-play goals, and the goaltending has just not been there.
It has to start with getting shots on goal. Steven Stamkos was second on the team in shots in the regular season, just has just ten this postseason, which is just 2.5 per game. That has resulted in just one goal for him in the series. Mikhail Sergachev also needs to step up. He was a top point scorer in the regular season and has just three this postseason. He also has a -3 rating when on the ice, and has taken 16 penalty minutes. Sergachev needs to play better for the Lightning to win.
Then there is Vasilevskiy. In game one he was solid, saving 28 of 31 shots, for a .903 save percentage. He has not been over .900 since. On Monday it was a .865 save percentage, and he was a major part of the collapse for the Lightning. He has been a playoff hero in years past, and he needs to put on the cape once again for the Lightning to make a comeback.
Why The Maple Leafs Could Cover The Spread
Years of playoff frustration seemed to be taken out in just 11 minutes in game four. Auston Matthews put the team on his back and got them the win. It wasn't just him though. William Nylander got an assist on three of the last four goals, and Mitchell Marner had assists on two of them. The biggest thing the Maple Leafs did in game four to get the win got high-danger opportunities. Four of their five goals were right in front of the nets, and they shot in the high-danger area 14 times on their 37 shots.
Mitchell Marner has been great for the Leafs in the series. He has two goals and eight assists on the series, consistently setting up plays to get goals. Matthews, Nylander, and Ryan O'Reilly also all have seven points in the series as well. On the defensive end, Morgan Rielly has been great, with a plus-six rating, multiple blocked shots, and takeaways, plus two goals and four assists to go along with it.
In goal, Ilya Samsonov has bounced back from a poor game one. He has had two games with save percentages over .900, and he turned it on to keep them in game four when things were going poorly. Samsonov has not had the full breakout game yet, but he has been more than good enough to get wins.
Final Lightning-Maple Leafs Prediction & Pick
This game will be tight. The last two have gone overtime, and there should be no expectation of anything but that again. Toronto can get rid of demons of the past, and move on. Toronto will be fighting to end it on home ice tonight, while Tampa will be fighting to stay alive. With how Tampa can play, this one should be a close game.
Final Lightning-Maple Leafs Prediction & Pick: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-200)
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