Subscribe
Follow Us
The Ottawa Senators signed forward Fabian Zetterlund to a three-year contract extension last week, carrying a $4.28M AAV.
Zetterlund is turning 26 years old in August, and was acquired by the Senators at the trade deadline. Splitting his season between the Senators and San Jose Sharks, Zetterlund scored 19 goals and 41 points across 84 games.
Below is a look at whether the Senators are getting good value with the contract.
Fabian Zetterlund can add middle-6 offense
Prior to his time in Ottawa, Zetterlund began his NHL career with the New Jersey Devils, before joining the San Jose Sharks. In his time with the Sharks, he managed to emerge as a steady middle-six producer, scoring at an 82-game rate of 20 goals and 41 points, across 168 games.
While the winger was especially productive in his time with the Sharks, his offense didn't necessarily translate after joining the Senators. Zetterlund's production did slip upon arriving in Ottawa, managing just two goals and five points across 26 games between the regular season and playoffs. That said, it's a small sample size, and we can probably expect better results from the winger as he gets comfortable in Ottawa. He was also used in a smaller role than in San Jose, and had a very low shooting percentage.
The winger does have a bit of a ceiling, and isn't likely to provide high-end offense. Zetterlund has great speed and a very good release, but doesn't necessarily have the puck control and agility to control the play a ton in the offensive zone. His career highs are 24 goals and 44 points, and it's up in the air as to whether he'd be able to exceed that mark.
That said, the winger will consistently play with energy and intensity, and will be effective on the forecheck and in battles. Going forward, we can expect Zetterlund to be an effective middle-six winger with the Senators.
The cap hit comes in as expected
Zetterlund's $4.28M cap hit comes in right around the projected range. I had previously projected a three-year deal for Zetterlund would come in around $4.33M per year, at HockeyComparables.com.
At a little over $4M per year, it's a low enough price tag that it shouldn't really cause any issues for Ottawa. The Senators have a pretty healthy cap situation, with over $10M in space, according to PuckPedia. Plus, the majority of the team's core players remain under contract for multiple seasons. So there isn't much of a chance that Zetterlund's cap hit could prevent the Senators from extending their own players, or going after external additions.
If Zetterlund can replicate his production from his time with the Sharks, the Senators will get good value. A realistic hope for Zetterlund would be production hitting or exceeding 20 goals and 40 points. Plus, as the cap starts to rise, the Senators could get good value in the last year or two of the deal.
Article Continues Below
Reasonable term for the Swedish forward
A three-year deal for Zetterlund makes a lot of sense, and anywhere between two and four years was a realistic range. Given Zetterlund didn't necessarily produce right away in Ottawa, extending him on a long-term deal probably wasn't overly likely. Plus, players with similar production and career experience have previously signed similar mid-term deals.
If Zetterlund can add similar middle-six offense to what he provided in San Jose, he can help the Senators over the next few years, as they aim to build towards contending. Especially given the fairly low price that Ottawa paid to acquire the winger, getting three years of 20 goals and around 40 points would be well worth it.
At the same time, there's not a ton of risk with a three-year deal. Even in the scenario where Zetterlund doesn't fit as anticipated, it wouldn't be a long-term issue. Based on his age, there should also be no fear of age-based decline at any point on a three-year contract.
The deal doesn't carry trade protection
Another benefit to Zetterlund's deal is that it doesn't carry any trade protection. As a result, it leaves the Senators with some options.
One on hand, if the deal didn't work out, the Senators may have an opportunity to get out of it if needed. It's a low enough cap hit with limited term, so it's far from an immovable deal.
On the flip side, if Zetterlund does perform as expected, he could emerge as a trade chip. It does still remain less likely that the Senators would be in a position to move him for future assets, given their intention to compete. However, he could be an asset to use in a larger trade, if a potential upgrade emerged that made sense down the road.
Again, it's unlikely that the Senators will be in a position where they'd be looking to move Zetterlund in the first couple years of the deal. But the lack of trade protection does give the Senators some options.
Overall grades for the contract
For Zetterlund, the player gets a sizeable raise, and some security with a three-year term. He'll also be set up to hit unrestricted free agency as he's about to turn 29 years old in 2028. So if Zetterlund can put together some good years with the Senators, he can still be in line for another big contract later on.
Fabian Zetterlund Grade: A-
For the Senators, they lock up the winger at fair price, and reasonable term. If Zetterlund can add middle-six offense, he'll be a solid piece as the Senators look to build into a contender. On the flip side, it's still a small enough deal that it doesn't carry a ton of risk.
Ottawa Senators Grade: B
