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With the NHL trade deadline coming up on Friday, we can expect a few more big-names dealt around the league.
One of the teams we can expect to be active in these trades is the Pittsburgh Penguins. For over a decade now, the Penguins have continued to add whenever possible, often throwing future assets to the wind in the process. This time, however, Pittsburgh's role at the deadline looks to be reversed.
The Penguins currently sit 11th in the Eastern Conference in points percentage with just 22 games remaining. While it's always possible we could see them go on a run to sneak into the postseason, the more likely outcome is a second straight year missing the playoffs.
As a result, Pittsburgh has emerged as an expected seller. So while there's room for the Penguins to move in the right direction based on the decisions they make, with the clock now ticking on any potential trade, we take a look at what a possible nightmare scenario for Pittsburgh would look like at the deadline.
A poor return for Jake Guentzel
The Penguins' top trade chip is obvious. Jake Guentzel has been with the team since he entered the league in the 2016-17 season, winning a Stanley Cup with Pittsburgh in his rookie season. Since then, Guentzel has solidified himself as a top-line winger and point-per-game player.
However, Guentzel is also turning 30 years old this year and is about to become an unrestricted free agent. The Penguins have been burned recently from continuing to add to a roster that's just not strong enough to compete, and moving Guentzel is the clear choice at this point.
At the same time, the Penguins can't miss on the return in this deal. Guentzel is such a valuable winger that even as a potential rental, he should be a lock to bring back a great return.
However, there's a lot hinging on this return. After more than a decade of being buyers, the Guentzel deal marks the true end of the Penguins' competitive window. With a limited prospect pool and an aging roster, Pittsburgh is going to have a tough time keeping up in the not-so-distant future. But this trade sets the stage for the Penguins' next era. Not only that, but it'll be vital for the Penguins to be able to recoup future assets, especially after sending away their own first-round pick this year in the Erik Karlsson trade.
Based on the Elias Lindholm trade, we have a pretty good sense of what to expect for Guentzel. Even with Guentzel's injury, there's certainly an argument that Guentzel should bring back a bigger return than Lindholm as well. But we can expect to see a first-round pick involved, along with multiple other prospects and picks.
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Guentzel is more or less a lock to be dealt by the deadline, but time still isn't on Pittsburgh's side. If the Penguins can't lock in a deal on Thursday, they'll be dealing from a position of weakness on Friday.
The Guentzel trade marks a key moment for the franchise, and it's one the Penguins can't afford to lose.
Failure to commit to selling
The Penguins should get a lot of credit for staying competitive as long as they have. Not only that, but the organization has always been willing to take chances at go after big names, to maximize their window to compete. Just in recent years, we've seen the Erik Karlsson trade, along with Rickard Rakell brought in. At the same time, they've more or less reached the end of their runway.
A mistake teams often fall into is trying to continue competing past their realistic competitive window. More often than not, a team is better off to recognize they should begin the roster turnover sooner than later. Of course, that's still easier said than done when you're icing a lineup featuring Sidney Crosby.
So far though, Pittsburgh has been quiet. While the Jake Guentzel trade seems all but a certainty, he's not the only trade chip the Penguins have. We do know a lot of the larger names are off limits, due to their contract status or trade protection. However, smaller names like Reilly Smith, Alex Nedeljkovic and even Lars Eller could all possibly bring back a return for Pittsburgh.
At this point, the Penguins need to be able to maximize their returns, and committing to getting back as many future assets as possible needs to be the priority. So while Guentzel's name is certainly the biggest, the Penguins shouldn't shy away from any moves.
Pittsburgh has had so little draft capital over recent years that anything helps. More than that, it also gives the Penguins a clear direction as they move into the offseason. Unfortunately, the time for trying to add pieces and build around their existing core has passed. While the tough years ahead probably can't be prevented, gaining draft capital may help to at least speed them along.
