North Carolina basketball is in the third season of the Hubert Davis era and the Tar Heels have had perhaps the most topsy-turvy three years of any program in college basketball. UNC was not expected to be a contender in the 2022 NCAA Tournament, yet found themselves in the national championship game as an 8-seed, narrowly losing to Kansas.
Last season, North Carolina was the No. 1 team in the AP Top 25 preseason poll, only to fall out of the rankings for good after the calendar flipped to 2023. The Tar Heels missed the tournament after finishing with a 20-13 record.
Now we get to this season, where UNC has been ranked in every AP poll released, ranging anywhere from third to 20th. The Tar Heels won the ACC regular season title but were upset in the conference championship game by in-state rival North Carolina State.
That loss didn’t prevent UNC from earning a No. 1 seed in this year's NCAA Tournament, a record 18th time the Tar Heels have been a top seed in March Madness. Led by ACC Player of the Year RJ Davis and fifth-year big man Armando Bacot, championship expectations surround this North Carolina team.
North Carolina basketball is among the most successful postseason programs in NCAA history. Could the Tar Heels add to their lore and make another Final Four run? Or is an early exit in the cards for Hubert Davis and crew?
With that said, let's get bold on some March Madness predictions for UNC.
RJ Davis cracks top 10 scoring list
Davis is among the purest scorers in this year's NCAA Tournament. After averaging 16.1 points per game last season, Davis' numbers jumped big time during his senior campaign.
The Tar Heels point guard averaged 21.4 points during the regular season and ACC Tournament, scoring just shy of 200 points more than he did last season despite playing only 30 more total minutes.
What stands out the most about Davis' scoring numbers is his 3-point shooting. Davis shot 35.5 percent from beyond the arc in his first three seasons with North Carolina, averaging 151 3-point attempts per season.
This season, Davis took more threes and made them at a higher clip. He chucked up 261 shots from deep, making 106 of them for a 40.6 shooting percentage. Of the 22 players in Division I who made at least 100 3-pointers this season, only six had fewer 3-point attempts than Davis.
A UNC run to the Final Four doesn’t start and end with Davis putting up otherworldly numbers, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt if he found another gear in what could be the final games of his college career.
Michigan's Glen Rice has the single-tournament scoring record with 184 points in 1989. To crack the top 10, Davis has to top Duke's Jay Williams with 155 points in the NCAA Tournament.
If North Carolina reaches the Final Four, Davis would have to average 31 points per game to hit that mark. If the Heels go one step further, he'd need to average 25.8 per game. Davis scored at least 25 points in 11 games this season and hit the 30-point mark four times, including a 42-point showing against Miami on Feb. 26.
Davis had a 40-point game in the 2022 tournament en route to North Carolina's run to the title game. Don’t be surprised if the ACC's best player this season etches his name in March Madness history with an elite scoring display.
UNC goes on ‘UConn-like' run to Final Four
In last year's NCAA Tournament, UConn went on a historic run to claim the national championship. The Huskies won all six games by at least 13 points and ran rampant throughout their first four games, winning by an average of 22.5 points.
North Carolina didn’t particularly dominate teams this season, but it did have eight wins by at least 20 points with four coming against ACC opponents.
If everything clicks for the Tar Heels, they can be a dangerous offensive team and score in bunches. UNC ranks 14th in points per game among teams in the tournament, averaging 81.5. Ironically, North Carolina scored the same amount of points as UConn this season in the same number of games.
If everything goes chalk down to the Elite Eight, the Tar Heels will see Mississippi State, Alabama and Arizona in the West region after a date with a 16-seed. UNC matches up well with all of those teams, though it would be hard for the Tar Heels to outscore the Crimson Tide by a ton after the latter led the country in scoring (90.8 points per game).
March Madness earned its mantra for a reason though, and there is little reason to believe this year's tournament will be the exception. There is usually anything but chalk results in this tournament so the Tar Heels could face multiple double-digit seeds en route to the Final Four.
I'm banking on chaos ensuing in UNC's region and the Heels getting the hot hand scoring-wise, similar to their run in 2022 when they scored 90-plus in their first two games and beat a 15-seed in the Elite Eight. The Tar Heels will run the show in the West and blow out multiple opponents doing so.
North Carolina basketball raises another banner
Ok, so maybe picking a No. 1 seed to win the NCAA Tournament isn’t exactly a “bold” prediction, but there's something to be said about the drive that plenty of these programs have heading into the tournament. Whether it is to build or sustain a legacy, forge a new identity for the program, or simply prove that they belong, every contending team has a mindset of going all the way.
North Carolina basketball is no exception, and after the way the last two seasons ended for the Tar Heels, they are perhaps the team with the biggest chip on their shoulder entering the tournament.
Hubert Davis doesn’t want to be “the guy that took over for Roy Williams.” RJ Davis and Armando Bacot don’t want to be known as the duo that “almost” brought UNC another title.
Despite their loss to NC State in the ACC championship game, the Tar Heels look poised to make a run to the final game of the season. Maybe everything has to fall in the right place for that to happen, but why can't it?
North Carolina is an uber-talented team that won 17 games in a conference that sent five teams to March Madness. It has an elite scorer who can take over a game, is an exceptionally good rebounding team and has experienced players who have been here before.
The Tar Heels will go from missing out on the dance to being the last ones vibing to the music. Banner No. 7 will hang in the Dean Dome next fall after North Carolina captures this year's college basketball national championship.
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