The first draft of this editorial had eighteen questions in total, but in order to not take up more of your day than I already was planning to, I decided to scale it back to ten total. March Madness generally offers far more than just ten important questions — or eighteen for that matter — but these are the inquiries that I believe will come to define the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
1. Can UConn repeat as National Champions?
It's been seventeen years since a school won back to back National Championships, and for six consecutive tournaments, the defending champion hasn't advanced beyond the opening weekend of the tournament. That's not necessarily a great sign for UConn, but I think it may take heavier artillery than “recent history” to derail the Huskies this year. The 2023-24 regular season taught us that the defending champions were at the very least the best team in the regular season, despite losing three starters from last year's team. But Dan Hurley reloaded the roster, has had his team playing with a confidence and swagger all year long that has been unmatched around the country, and might be even better than last year's team, which won all six of their tournament games by double figures en route to the school's fifth National Championship.
Yes, Connecticut is in the most difficult of the four regions — no matter what the NCAA Selection Committee says — and yes, their road to a second straight National Title is likely going to be much more challenging this time around than it was last year. The Huskies benefitted from a great draw last March. On their way to a championship, they needed to defeat a 13-seed, an 8-seed, three 5 seeds and a 3-seed. It would mean that there was complete and total madness in the East Region if Connecticut's road weren't more difficult than it was last year. But even if UConn's road requires beating Florida Atlantic, Auburn, and Iowa State on the way to the Final Four, it can be done.
After making a short story much longer than it needed to be, allow me to provide what feels like an obvious answer: Yes, they can, but it turns out the more appropriate question is actually Will UConn repeat as National Champions?
2. Can Braden Smith be trusted?
And you probably thought any Purdue related question would have to do with Zach Edey, didn't you? Here's the thing: it's easy to pile on Zach Edey. He's big and slow and has virtually no chance of ever playing meaningful minutes in the NBA. But at the collegiate level, Edey's production can't be denied. Even in the lowest moment of his career, he did his part last season against Fairleigh Dickinson, scoring 21 points on 7-for-11 shooting and adding 15 rebounds and 3 blocks in Purdue's 63-58 loss. No matter who the opponent is, Edey is going to put up his numbers. As for Edey's teammates, that's not always the case. Against FDU, non-Edey Boilermakers went 12-for-42 from the field, including an abysmal 5-for-26 from three-point range.
That's why I have my eye on Braden Smith heading into the 2024 NCAA Tournament. In 2023, as a true freshman, Smith scored just 7 points on 2-for-10 shooting in that 1st Round loss to Fairleigh Dickinson. He also had more turnovers (7) than he did assists (6). Smith has been dealing with a calf injury, but regardless of if he's 100 percent, Purdue is going to need their Sophomore guard, who developed into an All Big Team 1st Team performer this year, to play like one throughout March.
3. Is Rick Barnes going to Rick Barnes again?
I assume you're familiar with Rick Barnes' checkered history in the NCAA Tournament, but in case you aren't, here's a brief synopsis:
In his last fifteen seasons as a head coach, Barnes has been knocked out of the tournament in the Sweet Sixteen twice, the 2nd Round five times, and the 1st Round four times. Additionally, Barnes has missed the tournament altogether three times, and it's safe to assume that had the COVID-19 pandemic not cost us the 2020 NCAA Tournament, a 17-14 Tennessee squad would not have made the field of 68 either. That's a grand total of seven tournament wins in the last decade and a half. That's less than half a tournament win per year.
By my estimation, the Midwest Region, where Tennessee resides this year as a 2-seed, is the weakest of the four regions. I don't at all trust Purdue. Kansas is in shambles — we'll get to that in a quick second — and as badly as I wanted to believe Creighton was in the upper echelon of championship contenders, a quarterfinal loss to Providence in the Big East Tournament might've skewed my view of the Blue Jays. And yet, even with all of that instability around them, I keep looking at a potential Round of 32 matchup with Texas and I think to myself, “Oh God, how poetic would it be if Texas was the team that Rick Barnes and the Vols Rick Barnesed against?” Just consider it payback for failing to get out of the first weekend of the tournament when Kevin Durant was on the roster.
4. Will Kansas' downward spiral continue?
Did you know that this the first season since 1988-89 that Kansas has had double-digit losses before the NCAA Tournament began? That also happened to be the last time Kansas missed the NCAA Tournament. The Jayhawks were by no means a bubble team this time around… their 4 seed in the Midwest Region should clue you in. But there were teams on the bubble, who both made and missed the cut, who were playing much better ball than Kansas was at the end of the season.
In fairness, Kansas' non-conference schedule was loaded with difficult matchups, and the Jayhawks faired well before Big 12 play began. Their lone loss was to Marquette in the Maui Invitational semifinals, but wins over Connecticut, Tennessee, and Kentucky are among the best you could ask for in a non-conference slate. Once Kansas had to begin playing a Big 12 opponent every few nights, that's where things went sideways. The Jayhawks are just 9-9 since opening the season with a 13-1 record.
Injuries have played a big role in that, particularly, a lingering knee injury that has kept Kevin McCullar out of a handful of games throughout the season. Self's squad was also without Hunter Dickinson, who dislocated his shoulder in the regular season finale against Houston, in their upset loss at the hands of Cincinnati in the opening round of the Big 12 Tournament.
Bill Self has 72 hours to get his team back on track and out of this spiral. If he doesn't, Samford — the Jayhawks 1st Round opponent and one of the hottest shooting teams in the country — has a better than expected chance of pulling off an upset.
5. Was North Carolina's loss in the ACC Tournament Final a red herring?
I tend to think yes. And that's not to take away anything from NC State, whose run of five wins in five days in order to win the ACC Tournament and secure a berth in the NCAA Tournament field is impressive no matter how you look at it. But to me, that win said more about the resolve of NC State than it did about the perceived issues with the Tar Heels. North Carolina held opponents to just over 40 percent shooting during the season. Am I really supposed to think that NC State shooting 55 percent from the field in the ACC Tournament final wasn't an aberration? Same goes for Carolina's three-point shooting. On the season, Carolina hit 35 percent of their threes. Against NC State: only 26 percent.
But of course, this captures why March Madness is the phenomenon that it is. Just one off shooting night, or one night where everything goes your opponent's way, and Bam! Your season could be over. In my opinion, North Carolina still represents the biggest threat to Connecticut's quest for a second consecutive National Championship, even if NC State showed us just how beatable the Tar Heels actually are.
6. Which double-digit seed has the best Cinderella story?
Not to be confused with the best Cinderella resume. In descending order, from #4 to #1:
4) Long Beach State – I would guess that by now you've heard about Dan Monson's story, but in case you haven't: Monson was fired by Long Beach State a week ago today, but was given the opportunity to coach the team in the Big West Tournament. Long Beach State responded by winning the Big West Tournament and clinching a berth into the Big Dance, their first since 2012. What happens if the run continues? Could Monson negotiate a new contract? Would Long Beach State want him back? Either way, it's all great theater.
3) Oakland – Greg Kampe is the longest tenured coach in the country, having been the man in charge of the Oakland Golden Grizzlies since 1984. No, that is not a misprint. Kampe's first season at Oakland was during Michael Jordan's first season in the NBA. The first fifteen years he spent as the Golden Grizzlies head coach, they were a Division II program. How fitting would it be if Kampe — whose 670 wins are more than Gary Williams, Jay Wright, Tubby Smith, Bruce Pearl, and John Effing Wooden — in his 40th season, led Oakland to a Cinderella run in the 2024 NCAA Tournament?
2) Drake – Whether it was Drake or Indiana State, whoever represented the Missouri Valley Conference in the NCAA Tournament was going to have a strong case to make as a Cinderella candidate. It would've been a delight to be able to watch Cream Abdul-Jabbar in the NCAA Tournament, and the father-son duo of Darian and Tucker DeVries makes for TV gold, but each of these schools would be playing for much more than their own success. The Missouri Valley Conference is annually one of the best and most competitive mid-majors in the country. And yet, even in a season where Indiana State and Drake both clearly should've been tournament teams if you're only considering the eye-test, that's not the way it shook out. And that's rarely the way it shakes it. But maybe if Drake can go on an extended March run, it will open the door for teams in conferences like the MVC to get a fair shake when it comes to competition for at-large bids.
1) McNeese State – Only a few short years ago, Will Wade was one of the hottest young coaches in the country. He had elevated from Chattanooga to VCU to LSU in the span of only a few years, but after only his fifth season in Baton Rouge, he was terminated as the head coach of the LSU Tigers in the fallout of an investigation which proved that while coaching the Tigers, Wade provided improper financial benefits to players and their families. Interestingly, in the new and wild NIL landscape, such benefits are now deemed permissible by the NCAA. So is Will Wade a bad guy and a rule-breaker, or was his just ahead of the curve? That's not for me to decide, but either way, it took him very little time to turn McNeese State into a mid-major juggernaut that has the looks — and the story — of a team that could make a deep Cinderella run in March.
7. Was the Mountain West worthy of six tournament bids?
Well, based on the seeding, we know that this number would've been five had New Mexico not won the Mountain West Tournament, and Colorado State and Boise State barely snuck in the field, even though most bracket prognosticators had at least one of the Rams and Broncos safely in the field. Nevada and Utah State were both under seeded in my opinion, and San Diego State getting a 5-seed may be based on reputation alone, considering the Aztecs played in the National Championship Game last year.
The Mountain West was one of my favorite conferences to watch all year long, and I'm convinced that on a given night, any of these six teams could give the very best teams in the country one hell of a battle. So yeah, from where I sit right now, it looks to me like the Mountain West deserved six tournament bids. I'll admit that it does feel a little strange that the Mountain West received more bids than the Big East (3), Pac-12 (4), and ACC (5), but because in the camp that more mid-majors should make the field in place of power conference teams that struggled to stay above .500, I'd feel like a hypocrite if I argued otherwise here. But ultimately, this question can't be answered until we see how things shake out over the next three weeks.
Selfishly, I hope that the Mountain West performs reasonably well, just like I'd like to see schools like Drake, Samford and Akron win go on a mini-Cinderella run in order to boost the profiles of competitive conferences like the Missouri Valley, SoCon and MAC respectively.
8. Are we sleeping on Houston?
The last few years, as the class of the AAC, it's felt like fans were eager to push Houston into the National Championship picture, and each year, the Cougars came reasonably close. Last year, Houston's chances of playing in the Final Four in Houston were dashed in the Sweet Sixteen. The two previous seasons, Kelvin Sampson's squad advanced to the Final Four and the Elite Eight. Each of those three years, I was less enthused by Houston's championship chances than most were, but this year, it appears I've done a 180.
It's strange, isn't it? You come up just a little bit short of potentially oversized expectations enough years in a row, and everyone is ready to move on from ya. But when you exceed expectations — like when you win the Big 12 regular season title in your first year in the conference — that's somehow less impressive than what you've done in year's past? I don't get it. By no means am I suggesting that I'll for sure be picking Houston to make a deep tournament run, but I'm less convinced this year than I have been each of the past few seasons that Houston is going to fall short of those lofty expectations yet again.
9. Can a #15 seed make it four years in a row with a 1st Round win?
This one is near and dear to my heart for two reasons:
1. Perhaps the most famous/exciting 15 seed to ever go on a mini-run in the NCAA Tournament is the 2013 FGCU Eagles. Not only is Florida Gulf Coast my alma mater, but I was a Junior on living campus during their Sweet Sixteen run eleven year ago.
2. Each of the last four times a 15 seed has upset a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, the 2 seed that lost was one of my picks to make the Final Four — Arizona (2023), Kentucky (2022), Ohio State (2021), and my 2016 National Championship pick, the Michigan State Wolverines, who got bounced by Middle Tennessee in the opening round. That doesn't necessarily say a whole lot about yours truly, I know. But as you can see in my bio, I've never claimed to be an expert. Just a fan who cares way too much.
And the fan in me is curious to know if some unsuspecting 15 seed is going to make it a fourth straight season that a 2 seed goes down in the 1st Round. Saint Peter's toppled Kentucky two years ago, and now they have a chance to take down another SEC foe this year in Tennessee, and as we've already covered, Rick Barnes is probably dying to get in on this. Arizona, last year's victim, is a two-seed once again and playing a team with an all-caps GREAT Cinderella story in Long Beach State. Marquette could have their hands full with a Western Kentucky team that rebounds well and rarely turns the ball over, and if Tyler Kolek isn't 100 percent, who knows what can happen. That leaves Iowa State, the best 2 seed in the field in my eyes, which can mean only one thing… congratulations to the South Dakota State Jackrabbits for advancing to the Round of 32!
10. Will UConn repeat as National Champions?
I'll do my best to avoid making a short story long once again: Despite having a brutal path to the Final Four, despite history not being on their side, and despite the baked in unpredictability of the NCAA Tournament, I still believe that the Connecticut Huskies are the best team in college basketball, and I'd struggle to find a team that I'd be comfortable picking to beat them on a neutral floor. So while I still haven't decided what 3/4ths of my Final Four will look like, I do know I'll be predicting UConn to cut down the nets in Glendale on April 8th.
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