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Two of the top teams in the Premier League face off as Nottingham Forest faces Aston Villa. It is time to continue our Premier League odds series with a Nottingham Forest-Aston Villa prediction and pick.
Nottingham Forest is 7-4-4 on the year, sitting in fifth on the Premier League table due to goal differential. They have gone 3-0-3 in their last six fixtures. Still, last time out, they beat Manchester City 3-2. Meanwhile, Aston Villa is 7-4-4 on the year, sitting sixth on the Premier League table due to goal differential. They have won each of their last two EPL games, beating Southampton and Brentford. Their last game was in UCL play on December 10th. They beat RB Leipzig 3-2 in that game.
Since the 2016-17 season, these teams have played ten times between play in the Championship and EPL. Aston Villa has won five of them, with Nottingham Forest winning two, and three draws. They played twice last season, with Nottingham Forest winning 2-0 at home, and then Aston Villa winning 4-2 at home last season.
Here are the Nottingham Forest-Aston Villa Premier League odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Premier League Odds: Nottingham Forest-Aston Villa Odds
Nottingham Forest: +165
Aston Villa: +170
Draw: +230
Over 2.5 goals: -120
Under 2.5 goals: -114
How to Watch Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa
Time: 12:30 PM ET/ 9:30 AM PT
TV: NBC
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Why Nottingham Forest Will Win
Nottingham Forest has scored 19 times in 15 Premier League games this year, good for 1.27 goals per game. Further, they have scored in 12 of 15 games this year. They have scored in six of seven home games this year, averaging 1.14 goals per game this year. They have also been better in the first half of games at home, scoring in four of seven games in the first half at home this year.
Chris Wood leads the way for Nottingham Forest this year. He has scored the goals on an expected value of 6.1. Further, he has scored two goals on penalties this year. Meanwhile, Callum Hudson-Odoi has scored twice and added an assist this year. Morgan Gibbs-Whie has also scored twice and added an assist this year. Finally, Elliott Anderson has moved the ball well. He has four assists this year but has not scored a goal.
Nottingham Forest has been solid on defense this year. They are allowing just 1.2 goals per game this year. The defense has been much better at home this year. They have allowed just six goals at home this season, good for .86 goals per game. Further, they have three clean sheets at home this year. Nottingham Forest may be able to attack the Aston Villa defense as well. Aston Villa has not been as strong on defense as they have been offensively. They are allowing 1.53 goals per game this year. That goes up to two goals per game on the road, but that average is skewed by games against Liverpool, Chelsea, and Tottenham, three of the best-scoring teams in the EPL this year.
Why Aston Villa Will Win
Aston Villa has scored well this year, scoring 1.53 goals per game on the season. They have scored in 11 of 15 games on the year. Further, they have been solid scoring early in games this year, scoring in nine of 15 first halves this year, and averaging .8 goals per first half. They have also scored in the first half in five of seven road games this year.
Ollie Watkins leads the way for Aston Villa. He has scored seven times while adding three assists. The goal total is on an expected 8.7 though. Meanwhile, Jhon Duran has been great off the bench as a reserve. He has started just one game, but played in all 15, scoring five times this year. Finally, Morgan Rogers has four goals and two assists this year. He has an expected goal total of 3.2
Final Nottingham Forest-Aston Villa Prediction & Pick
This is a game between two evenly matched teams. The home team has done well when these two teams have faced. The last time the away team won was in 2018 in a Championship level game. Still, being at home may be the difference for Nottingham Forest in this one. Aston Villa has a negative goal differential on the road this year and concedes two goals per game. Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest allows just 0.86 goals per game at home this year. Aston Villa should find the back of the net in this one, but Nottingham Forest has allowed more than one goal against at home just once this year. Meanwhile, Aston Villa has lost their last three EPL games on the road by a combined 9-1. Take Nottingham Forest in this one.
Final Nottingham Forest-Aston Villa Prediction & Pick: Nottingham Forest ML (+165)
