A Denver Nuggets NBA Finals Game 5 victory over the Miami Heat would give the franchise its first-ever championship. Ahead of Monday night's Nuggets-Heat game, we'll be making out Nuggets Game 5 predictions.
The Nuggets might've all but ended the Heat's chances of pulling off the upset in the 2023 NBA Finals by winning Game 4 in Miami. Denver's 108-95 victory gave the Nuggets a commanding 3-1 series lead. Teams that fall behind 3-1 in the NBA Finals have lost the series 35 times in 36 tries. With the way Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray have dominated the Heat, Miami will be hard-pressed to come back and win the title, let alone beat the Nuggets on the road in Game 5.
Doubting the Heat has proven to be a mistake throughout the 2023 NBA Playoffs. Miami has overcome the odds again and again. A returning Giannis Antetokounmpo was supposed to stop the Heat's run in the first round, but Jimmy Butler delivered consecutive improbable comebacks to eliminate the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks. After blowing a 3-0 series lead, the Heat blew out the Boston Celtics on the road in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Nuggets should be well aware that the Heat are not going to roll over and die in Game 5 with Miami's season on the brink.
If Denver can play the way it has through the first four games of the NBA Finals, the series won't be headed back to Miami. Let's take a look at three bold Nuggets Game 5 predictions.
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3. Denver Nuggets will keep Miami Heat under 90 points in Game 5
The offensive prowess of Jokic, Murray and even Aaron Gordon has received much of the attention in the NBA Finals. The Nuggets' defense is just as responsible for pushing the Heat to the brink of elimination in Game 5. Denver has a 108.6 defensive rating in the series. By comparison, the Cleveland Cavaliers led the entire league with a 109.9 defensive rating during the 2022-2023 regular season.
The Nuggets have held the Heat to 93, 94 and 95 points in their three wins. Denver's defense appears to be getting stronger as the series moves along. In Game 4, Miami didn't get as many open looks from 3-point range as it did earlier in the series. The Heat's undrafted role players are no longer overachieving as they did on the road to the NBA Finals. Caleb Martin has crashed back down to earth, averaging 6.8 points per game. Max Strus has scored three total points in the Nuggets' victories.
Gordon's size is making life harder for Butler. Miami's superstar might be running out of gas. That spells trouble for the Heat in Game 5 back in the Denver altitude.
2. Denver Nuggets stars Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray will combine for 65 points and 25 assists
The Heat have no answers for Jokic and Murray. Not that anyone has been able to stop them all season long. In Game 5, Miami has no more cards left to play. The zone isn't going to stop the Nuggets' stars from putting up big statistics. Jokic and Murray have been a historic NBA Finals pairing.
Big-scoring games have highlighted Murray's playoff prowess, but it's been his playmaking that has stood out against the Heat. The Nuggets' point guard is the first player in league history to have at least 10 assists in each of his first four NBA Finals games. Murray is averaging 23.3 points per game, making key shots to halt a few Miami runs in the series.
Jokic is averaging 30.8 points, 13.5 rebounds and 8.0 assists per game. The two-time regular-season MVP is making it look easy, cruising to an almost certain NBA Finals MVP award. Jokic has been limited to four assists in two of the last three games. Expect his assist total to jump in the Nuggets' Game 5 potential clincher.
1. Denver Nuggets will beat Miami Heat by at least 15 points and win the 2023 NBA Finals
There is a reason why the Nuggets were heavily favored to beat the Heat when the NBA Finals started. It wasn't a sign of disrespect to Miami, which made an all-time run through the Eastern Conference. Denver is simply the much more talented team. It's been shown throughout the series with three double-digit victories for the Nuggets. Now that Denver is returning home and on the cusp of winning the title, the Nuggets can end their first championship run with an exclamation point.
Whether he's tired or being affected by the ankle he sprained in the second round, Butler hasn't been the same killer that he was earlier in the playoffs. Butler is averaging 21.8 points per game in the NBA Finals, a far cry from the 98 points he totaled in the last two games against the Bucks. Bam Adebayo isn't going to put the Heat on his back and force a Game 6.
Game 5 of the NBA Finals could be somewhat reminiscent of the way Denver's second-round series ended. The Nuggets left nothing to chance, pummeling the Phoenix Suns with a 125-100 victory in the series clincher. The Heat will put up more of a fight than the Suns, but Game 5 could end with Denver comfortably becoming champions.
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