The 2023 NBA Finals between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat is a significant mismatch. It's clearly what the Nuggets-Heat betting odds suggest. Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets are massive favorites over Jimmy Butler and the Heat.

The Nuggets have -450 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to win the 2023 NBA Finals. The Heat are +330 underdogs with two days left until the start of the series. In the last 15 years, only the 2018 Golden State Warriors led by Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry have entered the NBA Finals as bigger betting favorites than the 2023 Nuggets.

Maybe it will be a mistake to doubt the Heat against the Nuggets. Miami has been an underdog at the start of all three of its series in the 2023 NBA Playoffs. The Heat upset the top two seeds in the Eastern Conference and continue to overcome the odds. It's clear that Miami is a much better team than the one that went 44-38 in the regular season and only barely escaped the NBA Play-In Tournament.

Despite Miami's impressive run through the East, it only makes sense that the odds overwhelming favor Denver. Let's take a look at three reasons why the Nuggets are such heavy favorites to win the 2023 NBA Finals over the Heat.

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3. Denver Nuggets cruised through the Western Conference to the 2023 NBA Finals

The Nuggets have looked every bit like the Western Conference's No. 1 seed in the 2023 NBA Playoffs. Denver has a 12-3 record this postseason. Only one team has beaten the Nuggets in regulation. The Nuggets are undefeated at home in the playoffs. Denver's 119.7 offensive rating is the best in the playoffs and would've led the league during the regular season. With a 111.7 defensive rating, Denver's 8.0 net rating is 3.4 points better than Miami's.

In the first round, the Nuggets easily dispatched the Minnesota Timberwolves in a five-game gentleman's sweep. Denver outscored Minnesota by 50 points in its four wins. The Nuggets' only loss came in overtime when the Timberwolves faced elimination. The Phoenix Suns pushed the Nuggets to six games, but Denver left no doubt with a 25-point shellacking in the clincher. The heroics of Durant and Devin Booker were no match for Jokic, Jamal Murray and Denver's supporting cast. When the Nuggets swept the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, they left no doubt that they should be the NBA Finals favorites, regardless of their opponent.

The Heat haven't had such an easy ride. After upsetting the Milwaukee Bucks in five gamesMilwaukee assisted with a pair of fourth-quarter meltdownsMiami needed six games to eliminate the New York Knicks. Not only did the Boston Celtics push the Heat to a deciding Game 7, but Miami nearly became the first team in NBA history to blow a 3-0 series lead. Even amid their playoff resurgence, the Heat haven't been on the Nuggets' level in the playoffs.

2. Denver Nuggets match up well with the Miami Heat

The Heat have shown that they aren't afraid of anybody. They embarrassed the No. 1 seed Bucks and Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was widely considered to be the best player in the NBA. Miami wasn't fazed by giving up a 3-0 series lead on Derrick White's miraculous buzzer-beater. While the Heat had previous success over the Bucks and Celtics, their recent success against Jokics' Nuggets is nonexistent.

Denver is 6-0 against Miami over the last three seasons. Jokic had 12 rebounds and 12 assists when the Nuggets beat the Heat at home 124-119 on Dec. 30. Tyler Herro led Miami with 26 points in that game and likely will miss at least a couple of NBA Finals games. Jokic had 27 points on 12-of-14 shooting when Denver won 112-108 in Miami on Feb. 13.

The Heat's lack the size will be an issue against the Nuggets. Bam Adebayo hasn't been able to slow down the much bigger Jokic. Kevin Love was pulled from Miami's rotation late in the conference finals. The Heat's five-shooter lineup that saw time against the Celtics could be unplayable against Denver. Miami's zone was key in defeating Boston. The Nuggets have the NBA's best offense against the zone this season.

1. Nikola Jokic is easily the best player in the 2023 NBA Finals

The team with the best player in the series is usually the betting favorite. Not only is Jokic clearly the best player in the NBA Finals, but the gap between him and the second-best player is enormous. Jimmy Butler has proven himself to be among the league's top-tier performers when it matters the most. Still, there is no comparison when it comes to Playoff Jimmy and the Joker.

After totaling 108 points in two games to close out the Bucks, Butler averaged fewer than 25.0 points per game in consecutive series. Butler was nearly edged out by Caleb Martin for the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award. Even though Murray averaged 32.5 points against the Lakers, there was no debating that Jokic was the Nuggets' most valuable player.

Jokic has been even better in the playoffs than he was during his two MVP seasons. The 28-year-old is averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists per game. Jokic is shooting 53.8% from the field and 47.4% from 3-point range. He hasn't had a single bad game during the Nuggets' playoff run. Oddsmakers don't expect that streak to end in the NBA Finals.