This year's Oregon football team began as the preseason No. 3 team in the AP Top 25 poll. In the last two weeks, they've dropped from No. 7 to No. 9 in the latest poll (No. 8 in our power rankings). They are still 2-0 with wins over Idaho and Boise State.
While these early rankings may not mean much now, or even later when the first College Football Playoff rankings are released in November, there is some cause for concern if you're an Oregon Ducks fan. The 2024 college football season is still in its early stages, but the Ducks haven't looked like the dominant force they were expected to be coming into the season.
The Ducks' first game against FCS opponent Idaho was a bit of an eye-opener, yet it could have been chalked up to first-game inconsistencies against a lesser opponent. However, Oregon's performance against Boise State on Saturday might be cause to sound the alarm.
What is Oregon football's identity through Week 2?
Watching last year's Ducks team, it was clear what they excelled at: a high-powered offense coupled with a strong defense. So far this season, they aren't dominating in any particular area. They're still trying to find their identity. Even new starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel acknowledged this after the win over the Broncos.
“As a team that’s finding our identity together, I think you see a bunch of guys being more and more connected as the weeks go on, through practice, through games,” Gabriel said, per ESPN. “And then you go through adversity and you find a way to win.”
One example of Oregon's offensive struggles has been their performance on third down. They are 11-for-28, including a 4-for-12 outing against Boise State. That's nearly a 20% drop from their third-down conversion percentage last season.
Last season, the Ducks were like a well-oiled machine, firing on all cylinders. However, they did lose some key players, including now-Denver Broncos starting quarterback Bo Nix. His replacement, Gabriel, has been good but not quite the Heisman Trophy contender he was projected to be in the preseason.
Gabriel hasn't been the rightful replacement for Bo Nix… yet
Gabriel hasn't been terrible, but he doesn't seem entirely comfortable either. Through two games, his completion percentage is an impressive 84.3%—third best in the country—throwing for 623 yards and four touchdowns. He's yet to throw an interception but has lost two fumbles, one in each game.
His fumble against Boise State was especially costly. Tied at 27-all, Gabriel fumbled on what looked like a mistimed snap on the Ducks' own 21-yard line, setting up a Broncos touchdown four plays later to give them the lead.
It's definitely not all on Dillon Gabriel
If Gabriel is getting any blame, it's likely very little. Adjusting to Oregon's offense this season would be challenging for anyone, especially with some of the offensive line troubles that have surfaced early. In Oregon's two games, Gabriel has already been sacked seven times. He was sacked four times against the Broncos alone. For comparison, he was sacked just 17 times last season with the Sooners, with only two games where he was sacked three times.
The Ducks returned three starters from last year's impressive offensive line unit, but one of its key pieces, center Jackson Powers-Johnson, is now in the NFL. Like other parts of the team, it may just take time for the new members to gel and get used to Gabriel, who is a slightly different style of quarterback compared to Nix.
Second-half point struggles defensively
As mentioned, a late fumble from Gabriel set up a Broncos touchdown to give them the lead. But in the last two games, the Ducks defense has surrendered 28 second-half points, 21 of those in the fourth quarter. With an offense that hasn't quite found its rhythm yet, the Ducks will need to rely on their defense to keep them in games. Against Boise State, who was an 18 1/2-point underdog in Saturday's game, it wasn't just the second half that was worrisome. The Broncos took a 20-14 lead into halftime, much of which came from a 17-point second quarter.
What's next for Oregon football?
After the luxury of playing at home in Autzen Stadium the last two weeks, it's now on the road for the next two games for Dan Lanning's team. They'll start by heading to Corvallis to face in-state rival Oregon State in what used to be a classic Pac-12 matchup. Then, it's off to UCLA to begin Big Ten play. Playing as the road team will be the next big test for this Ducks team.
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