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Through 68 games, the Baltimore Orioles have enjoyed a charmed (and charming) season. At 43-25, they have the second best record in baseball—if not for the Tampa Bay Rays' torrid start, the Orioles would be in pole position to claim their first AL East divisional title since 2014. The offense mashes, pouring in exactly 5.00 runs per game, the sixth most in the Majors. Their bullpen is lights out—Felix Bautista and Yennier Cano are the best one-two punch in baseball, combining to give up just eight earned runs across 65 innings. Even their farm system abounds with talent as future stars like Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser wait in the wings. At this point, it's undeniable that the Orioles a good team, but by trading DL Hall, Jorge Mateo and Yennier Cano at the MLB trade deadline, they could make upgrades to become an even better one.
DL Hall
With the Orioles, the Hall finds himself in an awkward liminal space—he's too good to give up on, but not good enough to contribute just yet in any meaningful way. A consensus top 100 prospect in the minors for the last five years, Hall is a lefty with serious artillery. His fastball sits in the high 90s and sometimes jumps up into triple digits; his mid 80s changeup possesses a beguiling late fade and his slider and curveball both have serious bite. And yet, despite his dominating pure stuff, Hall has routinely gotten rocked during his brief stints in the Majors—across 13 outings, Hall has been tagged for an unimpressive 5.94 ERA.
As such, Hall represents a tasty trade chip, but is still one that the Orioles can afford to lose. Whereas the likes of Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez and Jackson Holliday are integral to the Orioles' future, Hall is somewhat expendable as his future seemingly lies in the bullpen. Even if Baltimore isn't necessarily his long term home, he's so talented and his stuff is so nasty that he'll be in high demand if the Orioles make him available in an effort to add another immediate contributor to help their playoff push.
Jorge Mateo
Baseball requires a certain ineffable alchemy of skills—it's as much metaphysical as it is physical. Sure, it helps to be big and fast, but true goodness is derived from hand-eye coordination and the split-second spatial recognition needed to command the strike zone. This rupture between tangible physical talent and intangible baseball-specific skills is particularly evident in Orioles' shortstop Jorge Mateo. In terms of pure athleticism, Mateo is amongst the most gifted players in baseball. At 6'1, 200 pounds, he's built like an NFL defensive back and he runs like one too—his sprint speed ranks in the 99th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. Similarly, his bat holds considerable pop; his max exit velocity is in the top quintile across the league.
Unfortunately, Mateo hasn't been able to translate his athleticism into consistent production at the plate. Across his first 60 games, Mateo sports a meager .234 batting average and an even meager-er .276 on base percentage; he swings and misses too often and swings at too many pitches, ranking in the 23rd percentile league-wide in whiff rate and the 11th percentile for chase rate. Still, his elite base-running (20 steals, fourth most in the American League) and defense (82nd percentile in Outs Above Average) allow him to be a solidly above-average player; his 1.1 Wins Above Replacement so far this year places him above star players such as Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker and Gleyber Torres.
While Mateo has thrived with the Orioles, his days in Baltimore are numbered; no matter how well he plays, he's merely a placeholder until either Gunnar Henderson or Jackson Holiday, two of the best prospects in all of baseball, are ready to take over as Baltimore's starting shortstop. Accordingly, Mateo is a prime trade candidate if the Orioles choose to upgrade their starting rotation or add another big bat to the lineup ahead of the MLB trade deadline.
Yennier Cano
Yennier Cano is currently the best reliever in baseball. A total unknown before this year, Cano has been unhittable—after tweaking his delivery, he's harnessed the full power of his 96 mile per hour sinker and knee-buckling 90 mph changeup. In 35 innings, he's given up a grand total of four runs and maintained a miniscule .800 WHIP. While Cano struggled with command earlier in his career, he now dots the strike zone with cyborgian precision, boasting a 6.8:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
If Cano is so incredible, you may be asking, why would the Orioles trade him? Because they're the Orioles. While they've mercifully moved on from tanking, the Orioles still have a cut-throat, analytically informed front office that doesn't have much appetite for sap or sentimentality. Just last year, they traded Jorge Lopez, their breakout All-Star closer, to the Twins at the MLB trade deadline, cashing in on his success to bolster a league-best farm system. To be sure, the Orioles are certainly a nice story and a pleasant surprise, but with a core this young and this good, they should consider prioritizing their future greatness over their present goodness.
