Although the Orlando Magic have not been able to surpass more than 34 wins since the 2018-19 season, they enter the new year with a somewhat lofty over under win total projection. This summer, they have been one of the least talked about teams in the off-season primarily because of their silence in free agency and on the trade market. While they may lack true superstar power, they make up for the depth of young players with untapped potential.
Former number one overall picks Paolo Banchero and Markelle Fultz will look to lead this team to a respectable record for the first time in a long time, considering the Magic have not finished higher than 13th place in the Eastern Conference in the past three years. This is without question one of the best chances they have had in this time, with up-and-coming head coach Jamahl Mosley leading the way and third-year forward Franz Wagner coming off the heels of a red-hot FIBA World Cup performance where he was able to lead his country to win the Championship. The excitement for the future in Orlando is palpable, but with this team's abundance of young talent, the future could be now.
Here are the Magic NBA Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Orlando Magic Odds
Over: 37.5 wins (-110)
Under: 37.5 wins (-110)
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Why The Magic Will Win 38 Games
After going 34-48 last season, a win increase of only four games should not be far-fetched for the Orlando Magic. The Oklahoma City Thunder receive tons of praise (deservedly so) for having the best young core in the league, but the Magic are not far behind them. With just two players on the roster over the age of 27, the potential is there for this team to develop into a serious threat.
Their centerpiece, Paolo Banchero, is not even 21 yet and is coming off of an incredible first year. In Banchero's rookie year, he averaged 20.0 points per game, the ninth most averaged by a rookie since 2000, and added 6.9 rebounds per game. Guys like Banchero and Franz Wagner showcased the mark they can leave on this league last season, and they are only getting better. So if other young players like Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, Jett Howard, and more can also show some progression, an increase in wins will surely follow.
It will be exciting to see what these young players can accomplish but don't let their youth fool you. The Magic had one of the most stout defenses in the NBA last season and look to build on it. Four players on their team (Fultz, Wagner, Suggs, Banchero) accumulated 60 or more steals throughout the season, and they are only getting better. These active hands led to the Magic placing in the league's top half in total steals, blocks, and defensive rebounds. However, they excelled the most by baiting the opposition into drawing fouls. Orlando finished with the seventh most personal fouls drawn per game. Considering they did not lose any key assets on defense, this intensity will remain the same in this upcoming season and will continue to be a problem for the league.
Why The Magic Will Not Win 38 Games
Having one of the league's best defenses can take you very far in the league, but in the modern-day NBA, teams have to be able to score in bunches. Unfortunately for the Magic, that just isn't their play style. Orlando finished last season as a bottom-seven team in points per game, field goals made per game, three-pointers made per game, and team three-point percentage. The Magic saw only one guy (Gary Harris) make more than 0.5 three-pointers per game on a field goal percentage greater than 39.9%. Even though they brought in Joe Ingles and two talented rookies when it comes to offense, it still may not be enough, especially in a division with guys who can drop 30+ points on a given night like Trae Young, Jimmy Butler, Jordan Poole, and LaMelo Ball.
Not only were they devoid of three-point specialists last season, but they also had a serious lack of playmaking. They ranked seventh in the league in most total turnovers and averaged just 23.2 assists per game, which was the fifth lowest in the NBA. Markelle Fultz did his part for the team with 5.7 assists per game and an assist-to-turnover ratio of 341:149 (2.3); the rest of the team did not show up in this department. The offense as a whole was what let the Magic down last season, and if they cannot get anything to click again this year, they could be in line for another number-one overall pick.
Final Magic Over-Under Win Total Prediction
The Orlando Magic are an interesting case for this upcoming season. They are among the few teams with a) No true go-to threat on offense and b) a team without an actual veteran presence in the locker room. It is tough for me to believe that a team lacking either of these qualities can be successful in the league, but surprisingly, I think the Orlando Magic will. With cornerstone players Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and Jalen Suggs looking to make an even more significant leap in their development and one of the more intelligent and team-oriented head coaches in the league with Jamahl Mosley at the helm, I will be taking the over-win total with the Magic.
Final Magic Over-Under Win Total Prediction: Over 37.5 wins (-110)
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