Subscribe
Follow Us
As hard as it is to believe, the 2022 college football season is already halfway over. This season has brought some incredible storylines along with it, including Kansas' resurgence and James Madison entering the rankings just five games into its FBS tenure. However, it seems that the more things change, the more they stay the same. Below, we'll take a look at some dark horses for the College Football Playoff.
Despite all the chaos around the country, the traditional powers in the sport still are still dominating. Defending national champion Georgia has the best odds to make the College Football Playoff at -750, while Alabama and Ohio State trail close behind at -550. Other powerhouse programs such as Clemson, USC, and Michigan round out the top of the odds at +105, +210, and +340, respectively.
While the powerhouse programs dominate the sport, the best moments always come from the big underdogs. Who could forget when Boise State stunned Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, or when Appalachian State shocked the college football world by beating Michigan with a last-second field goal block in the Big House? Hell, Cincinnati had a huge underdog moment just last season by becoming the first Group of Five team to ever make the CFP.
While another Group of Five team making the CFP seems unlikely this season, some underdog teams still have a chance to make noise. These teams may have long odds to make the dance, but don't rule them out just yet. Without further ado, let's look at five dark-horse contenders for the College Football Playoff this season.
5. Oregon Ducks
Most college football fans wrote off the Ducks after a humiliating 49-3 loss to Georgia in the season opener. The Bulldogs humiliated the Ducks in that game, posting 571 yards of total offense and forcing two turnovers. Since that loss, though, first-year head coach Dan Lanning and the Ducks have been rolling.
Oregon has scored at least 40 points in each of the last five games and has outscored its opponents 249-124. The Ducks have a couple of good wins in that street too, including a 41-20 blowout over then-No. 20 BYU and a 44-41 comeback win over a good Washington State team.
Since a rough game against Georgia, quarterback Bo Nix has been one of the best in the nation. The Auburn transfer is completing over 70% of his passes, and has 12 touchdowns to one interception in his last five games. The Ducks also boast the best rushing offense in the Pac-12, averaging 241.7 yards per game.
Oregon fell out of the rankings after the Georgia game, but has since climbed back up to 12th in the country. The Ducks have some tough games remaining, including home games against UCLA and Utah. If they can win those games, along with a Pac-12 championship, they have an argument to be in the CFP.
The Ducks' odds to make the College Football Playoff sit at +1000, tied with Oklahoma State for 10th-best. If Oregon can make it after such a bad opener, it will be one of the most remarkable turnarounds in college football history.
4. TCU Horned Frogs
TCU is one of two unbeaten teams left in the Big 12, and has been arguably the best team in the conference so far. Fans started taking notice of the Horned Frogs after a 55-24 blowout over Oklahoma on Oct. 1. They then beat Kansas 38-31 in a battle of undefeated teams, but they still aren't getting the respect they deserve.
The key to TCU's success has been its explosive offense. The Horned Frogs are top five in the country in both total and scoring offense, averaging 530 yards and 46.4 points per game. Quarterback Max Duggan has been one of the country's best, completing 73.2% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and only one pick.
The Horned Frogs will have their biggest test on Saturday, when they host eighth-ranked Oklahoma State. This game pits the last two Big 12 unbeatens against each other, and whoever wins it has an inside track to the conference championship game. After that, TCU has two more ranked matchups against Kansas State and Texas, so there are plenty of chances to boost the resume.
TCU sits at 13th in the AP poll, but will likely enter the top 10 with a win on Saturday. At +2000, the Horned Frogs have the 14th-best odds to make the College Football Playoff, but that should also increase with another win. This team can keep up with anyone, and any opponent needs to respect the Horned Frogs.
3. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Minnesota has the “honor” of being the lone unranked team on this list. The Golden Gophers were 21st, but a bad loss to Purdue on Oct. 1 knocked them out of the rankings. However, the Gophers were missing their best player in that game.
That player is none other than star running back Mohamed Ibrahim. The Baltimore native has been one of the country's most dynamic runners this season with 587 yards and eight touchdowns in four games. He has helped the Gophers become the best rushing offense in the Big Ten, averaging 245 yards per game.
The big thing holding Minnesota back is its terrible strength of schedule. The Gophers have played the 111th-hardest schedule so far, the second-easiest in the Power Five. They have two ranked matchups against Illinois and Penn State coming up, but they'll be relying on the Big 10 championship to get that signature win.
However, Minnesota has dominated the teams they have played. The Gophers have outscored their opponents 183-24 in its four wins this season, and never trailed in those games. If they can keep that up against Big 10 teams, they'll jump back into the rankings very quickly.
2. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State has the best chance to jump into the College Football Playoff conversation of any team on this list. The Bulldogs already have quality wins over Texas A&M and Arkansas, both in convincing fashion. With games against Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss still ahead, the Bulldogs could shoot up the rankings with some upsets.
Mike Leach's air raid offense has worked wonders for Mississippi State this season. The Bulldogs have the fourth best passing-offense in the country, averaging 354.7 yards per game. Quarterback Will Rogers has 2,110 yards and 22 touchdowns passing this season, both second in the country.
Mississippi State does have a blemish on its record in a 31-16 loss to LSU on Sept. 17. Aside from that, though, the Bulldogs have won every game by at least three scores. Their odds to make the CFP sit at +6000, but if they play like that against some of the best teams in the country, they will absolutely be in the dance.
1. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Wake Forest has the highest odds of any team on this list at +7500. A lot needs to go the Demon Deacons' way, but don't rule them out just yet.
As usual, quarterback Sam Hartman has been the star of the show in Winston-Salem. In just five games, the junior has completed 64.7% of his passes for 1,442 yards and 16 touchdowns. At +5000, Hartman even has some dark-horse Heisman hype behind him.
While Wake Forest has the best loss of any team on this list, it is also the one that hurts the most. The Demon Deacons went back and forth with ACC heavyweight Clemson in a 51-45 Tigers win in double overtime. While the Deacons had nothing to be ashamed of, that loss may be what sinks their College Football Playoff hopes.
Wake Forest has only two ranked teams left on the schedule, NC State and Syracuse. What hurts more is that the Deacons need Clemson to lose two ACC games just to make the conference championship game. With Syracuse as the only ranked team left on the Tigers' schedule, that seems unlikely.
If by some miracle that does happen, though, Wake Forest would have a strong case to make the CFP. The Deacons proved they can hang with anyone in the country with the thriller against Clemson. If they get the chance, they'll be sure to make the most of it.
