The Miami Marlins host the San Diego Padres for a National League showdown on Friday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Marlins prediction and pick.
Padres-Marlins Projected Starters
Martin Perez vs. Edward Cabrera
Martin Perez (2-5) with a 4.96 ERA, 70 strikeouts, 1.57 WHIP in 89.0 innings. This will be his second start in a Padres uniform.
Last Start: 6.0 innings, three hits, one earned run, zero walks, and seven K's in the 3-2 win over the Colorado Rockies.
2024 Road Splits: (1-3) with a 6.44 ERA, 26 K's in seven starts.
Edward Cabrera (2-3) with a 5.96 ERA, 64 K's, 1.49 WHIP in 48.1 innings.
Last Start: 5.0 innings, three hits, zero runs, two walks, and eight K's in the 7-0 win over the Atlanta Braves.
2024 Home Splits: (0-1) with a 5.14 ERA, 34 K's, 17 walks in six starts.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Marlins Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+126)
Moneyline: -126
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-152)
Moneyline: +108
Over: 8 (-120)
Under: 8 (-102)
How to Watch Padres vs. Marlins
Time: 7:10 ET/4:10 PT
TV: MLB.TV
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres are coming off a 3-game sweep over the Pittsburgh Pirates. They have won five in a row and nine of their last 10 games. They are a team as hot as anyone and see themselves only 2.5 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers for first place in the NL West. Nobody saw this coming before the season started, but the Dodgers' lead in the division is in jeopardy. The Arizona Diamondbacks are also closing in on the race as they have won eight of their last 10 games and currently sit 0.5 games behind the Padres. If SD can take two of three from the Marlins, or even another sweep, then they are putting themselves in a great spot for contention. San Diego is three games up on the NL Wild Card at the moment.
The Padres rotation is seeing a lot of success right now. In the last seven games, no starter has allowed more than three runs. The rotation is putting the team in a position to win games. The bullpen has been iffy as of late, but that is why general manager A.J. Preller traded for Tanner Scott and Jason Adam at the trade deadline. Once those two settle in, the bullpen should recover and become a dominant one with Robert Suarez as the closer. If Martin Perez is able to reach six innings and even better, register a quality start, then the offense should do enough to take Game 1 against the Marlins.
San Diego's offense is still among the best in baseball. They rank at the top in team batting average (.265) and total hits (1,042). The Boston Red Sox are second in both average at .262 and hits at 1,036. The Friars have seven hitters who have a batting average of .270 or higher with Luiz Arraez leading the way at .303.
Jackson Merrill has established himself as the top-hitting rookie in the National League, and potentially the entire MLB. Baltimore Colton Cowser has an argument, but what Merill is doing deserves a ton of recognition. He's without a doubt the second-best hitting centerfielder in the game already behind Aaron Judge and leads all qualified rookies in just about every offensive category. He is doing all this while playing a new position. Remember, Merrill has been a shortstop since he could walk. Now, he leads all qualified rookies in hits (114), RBIs (59), and batting average (.289) while being second in homers.
Why The Marlins Will Cover The Spread/Win
Edward Cabrera has a 2-3 record with an ERA of 6.59 and 54 strikeouts in 10 appearances in the last 10 games in his career. He will need to pitch a masterclass performance in order for the Marlins to have a shot. The Friars' offense is on fire and there is a good chance he gets rung early. If he doesn't give the Marlins a quality start then I expect the Padres to dominate.
The Marlins sold everyone off, even reliever Tanner Scott to the Padres. Scott is considered one of the top lefties in the league and he now comes to San Diego ready to compete for the postseason. Not to mention, The Fish traded away Luis Arraez to San Diego early in the season. The Marlins just don't have enough to compete.
Final Padres-Marlins Prediction & Pick
The Padres should get the job done on the road to keep their hot streak going. Cabrera can't be trusted while the Marlins face a vet who is pitching well. Take the Frairs to win the game as that is a more reliable pick than taking the Marlins to cover.
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Final Padres-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Padres ML (-126)
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