It has been an eventful NFL offseason for the Kansas City Chiefs. The franchise failed to make it back to the Super Bowl in 2021 and lost in the Conference Finals after a 12-5 regular season record. The biggest news of the offseason was the Chiefs' decision to trade Tyreek Hill in exchange for five total draft picks. The loss of Tyreek Hill is sure to play a major role in the Chiefs overall offense and Patrick Mahomes' production in 2022. Even so, it is tough to doubt an offense led by Andy Reid and the MVP quarterback under center. Regardless, here are Patrick Mahomes' predictions for the 2022 NFL season as Kansas City sets its sights on getting back to the Super Bowl this season.
3. Patrick Mahomes throws for less than 4500 yards
It is no coincidence that the Chiefs' offense has ascended to one of the best in the NFL from the second Patrick Mahomes stepped into the starting role. Mahomes' ability was a perfect match for the brilliant offensive mind of Andy Reid. While the duo remain together this season and are sure to have some tricks up their sleeves, expect a slight dip in production.
In his first season as the full-time starter in 2018, Patrick Mahomes burst onto the scene. He threw for 5097 yards and led the NFL with 50 touchdowns on the way to winning the MVP award. The following year he took a step back and produced 4031 yards through the air. His numbers rebounded the past two seasons with his production looking very similar. In 2020, Mahomes threw for 4740 yards and 38 touchdowns while in 2021 he produced 4837 yards and 37 touchdowns.
While Patrick Mahomes will continue to find his name mentioned among the NFL's best quarterbacks, the impact that Tyreek Hill made went far beyond the stat sheet. The threat of the deep ball opened up the field for the rest of the offense and Hill could be counted on for a game-changing play on an every week basis. The respect he commanded from opposing defenses made him an impactful player even without the ball in his hands. Kansas City will find a way to overcome this new hurdle, but expect it to take a little bit of time and for Mahomes to take a statistical step back in 2022.
2. Skyy Moore becomes Patrick Mahomes new favorite target
The Chiefs spent the 54th overall pick on Skyy Moore, a wide receiver out of Western Michigan. The 5'9″ receiver is not as dynamic as Tyreek Hill but still shares some similar qualities. Last season he recorded 95 receptions for 1295 yards and 10 touchdowns across the 12 games he played. Moore is a terrific route-runner and has a great pace with the ball in his hands. His quick-twitch ability and athleticism will make him a dynamic weapon and he lands in an ideal situation for his skills.
It is tough to put such high expectations on a rookie but there have been intriguing reports coming out of the Chiefs training camp. Moore has not only been used in the passing attack but also has been spotted lining up in the backfield for some offensive sets. While JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Mecole Hardman will all play more traditional wide receiver roles, expect Skyy Moore to grow into the X-factor the Chiefs offense needs. Don't be surprised if the rookie ends up leading the wide receiver group in all-purpose yards at the year's conclusion.
1. Mahomes sets a career-high in interceptions
Patrick Mahomes set a career-high in interceptions last season with 13. He had cut down the previous two years and only produced 5 and 6 turnovers following the 12 he had in 2018. The lack of chemistry with the new wide receiver core and Mahomes' tendency to attempt to make something out of nothing could be a recipe for disaster this season.
With Tyreek Hill out wide, Mahomes oftentimes would throw the ball up deep and allow him to make the play. While Hill was effective in this role and it was beneficial to the Chiefs' offense in a major way, this type of play will likely need to be removed from the playbook. The wide receiver group is still talented but none possess the elite speed and separation ability of Hill. If Mahomes continues to put the ball up for grabs and trust his receivers, expect his interception numbers to grow.
Overall, Patrick Mahomes has been effective at taking care of the ball throughout his career. However, this reputation could change if he set his career-high in turnovers once again. The amount of uncertainty surrounding the Chiefs is new to them in 2022. Expect there to be some room for error this season and for Mahomes to tally a career-high in interceptions once again as the team works through the early growing pains.
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