The New England Patriots seem to be one of the finalists in the sweepstakes for San Francisco 49ers star wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk.
San Francisco has negotiated the framework of a possible deal involving Aiyuk with New England, NBC Sports Bay Area's Matt Maiocco reported. Additionally, the 49ers have given Aiyuk to discuss a deal with other teams, ESPN later reported. The Cleveland Browns are also reportedly the other team that has agreed to the framework of a possible trade for Aiyuk while the Pittsburgh Steelers remain in the mix for the star wide receiver.
As the sweepstakes for Aiyuk heat up, it's pretty evident that the Patriots not only have to make their best offer to the 49ers for Aiyuk, but they also have to make the wide receiver a strong extension offer. Here are our suggestions for each in order to ensure that Aiyuk winds up in New England.
What the Patriots should offer 49ers for Brandon Aiyuk
Recent history suggests that the Patriots should have to give up at least a first-round pick in order to get Aiyuk. In 2022, the Las Vegas Raiders traded a first-round pick and a second-round pick to acquire Davante Adams from the Green Bay Packers. Later that offseason, the Kansas City Chiefs acquired a first-round pick, a second-round pick, two fourth-round picks, and a sixth-round pick for Tyreek Hill. Just a few weeks later, the Eagles acquired A.J. Brown for a first-round pick and a third-round pick.
Of course, the problem with that is the Patriots' 2025 first-round pick is likely more valuable than any of those first-round picks were at the time when they were traded. New England is coming off a 4-13 season and had the No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Even though the Patriots revamped their quarterback room, the expectation is that they'll be one of the worst teams in football again in 2024.
So, giving up the 2025 first-round pick should be a no-go for the Patriots, even for a player as good as Aiyuk. The good news about being a bad team though is that your draft picks should be at the beginning of each round, so the Patriots' second-round selection will likely be more valuable than the Browns' or Steelers' second-round picks.
A 2025 second-round pick should be the focal point of a possible package. As the other deals involving star receivers indicate, the Patriots will need to add more to their package. With Adams, Hill, and Brown netting their former teams two picks in the first three rounds of the draft, the Patriots will likely have to add another second or third-round pick to get it done.
That's where New England should get creative. It should send San Francisco a conditional 2026 third-round pick that turns into a second-round pick if it makes it to the postseason in either the 2024 or 2025 seasons. Sending a draft picking that could turn into another second-round pick could alleviate the lost value of not giving up a first-round pick and would arm the 49ers with picks to round out their roster as they won't be able to afford to keep their core together soon.
Multiple reports have indicated that if the Patriots want Aiyuk, they'll have to give up Kendrick Bourne. That should be no problem for them, though. While Bourne has been their best receiver since 2021, he's 29 and coming off an ACL tear. The addition of Aiyuk would also likely leave him without many snaps as Ja'Lynn Polk, Javon Baker, and DeMario Douglas all need playing time, too.
So, the Patriots should be willing to give up Bourne. But the 49ers should have to surrender a pick, too. New England should ask for a 2025 fifth-rounder to help make up the difference.
Of course, that's just the first step. Now, let's get a deal done with Aiyuk.
What Patriots should offer Brandon Aiyuk in a contract extension
This might be the hardest part for the Patriots to get Aiyuk in Foxborough. Aiyuk wants to be paid like one of the top receivers in the league, but if the Calvin Ridley situation earlier this offseason is any indication, New England will have to pay the tax of being a bad team in order to entice him.
That tax might mean having to make Aiyuk the highest-paid wide receiver in the league. Almost no one would argue that Aiyuk is the best at the position, but there isn't really a reason for him to want to come to New England right now for reasons other than money.
So, Robert Kraft has to be willing to pay up. Justin Jefferson signed the largest deal for a wide receiver in NFL history this offseason, inking a four-year, $140 million extension with $110 million guaranteed. Let's give Aiyuk the record for the most guaranteed money ever for a receiver in NFL history, but not make him the highest-paid player at the position on an annual basis.
The Patriots should make Aiyuk an extension offer of four years, $120 million – fully guaranteed. That's right, give Aiyuk all of that money. That contract would also place Aiyuk among the five-highest paid receivers on an average annual basis, too.
But giving Aiyuk a fully guaranteed deal would send a strong sign to other players around the league. While the Patriots seem to be trending in the right direction after letting go of Bill Belichick, it does seem like they might have to buy some goodwill back with the rest of the league in order to show that they mean business.
Landing your first elite wide receiver in decades and making a serious commitment to him would do just that.
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