When Kyle Dubas and the Pittsburgh Penguins traded franchise cornerstone Jake Guentzel to the Carolina Hurricanes, it looked like the club was waving the white flag on the 2023-24 season. The Pens were fading away in the Eastern Conference playoff picture, exacerbated by a seven-loss-in-eight-game stretch between Feb. 29 – Mar. 12.
Things haven't improved much in Pennsylvania since a 2-1 loss to the lowly Ottawa Senators on Mar. 12. Sidney Crosby and co. are 2-2 since, beating the San Jose Sharks and Detroit Red Wings, and falling to the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils. The finale was especially disappointing, as the Devils are struggling just as prolifically as the Pens as of late.
But despite the struggles — and now without Guentzel's services — there is still a path to the playoffs for this team in the Metropolitan Division. It's very unlikely, but not impossible.
Penguins continue to hang around playoff picture
Although the Penguins aren't playing great hockey — not by any means — the .500 clip over the last week or so has the roster just seven points back of the second wildcard berth in the Eastern Conference, with 14 games left. And, they play most of the teams they're chasing for that spot down the stretch, including the Devils, New York Islanders and Washington Capitals.
As it stands, the chances of Pittsburgh missing back-to-back postseasons for the first time since Crosby joined the team is very likely. They would have to leapfrog the Devils, Islanders, Capitals and Buffalo Sabres, as well as one of the Red Wings or Tampa Bay Lightning in the wildcard.
And it gets even more difficult with the gauntlet of a schedule coming up. The Pens will play maybe their toughest three-game stretch of the season, matching up against the Dallas Stars, Colorado Avalanche and Carolina Hurricanes over the next week. The finale will be Guentzel's first game back in Pittsburgh next Tuesday, and if the Pens don't win at least one (if not both), they could already be eliminated by that time.
Shipping Guentzel and Chad Ruhwedel was the right move for the franchise at this time. Although hope hasn't been completely dashed, it would take a miracle for this team to get in. For that reason, it's head scratching that Dubas didn't try to maximize a return for forward Reilly Smith as well.
Not trading Reilly Smith is Penguins' biggest mistake
After winning his first Stanley Cup with the Vegas Golden Knights last June, Reilly Smith was promptly shipped to Pennsylvania, with the hope he would be part of the solution to return to the postseason. But after a hot start, the veteran has struggled mightily with the Penguins; he's added just 12 goals and 21 points in 2023-24, a season after he put up 26 goals and 56 points with the Knights.
Smith isn't the only player who has struggled throughout the campaign — not by a long shot — but it's odd that he wasn't moved to a contender on March 8. Although he does have one season left on his contract that will pay the 32-year-old $5 million in 2024-25, Dubas should have tried to flip him for draft capital instead of keeping him on the roster.
There's no guarantee the Pens will be better next year, and it's possible Dubas is hoping for a bounce back season so he can fetch a better return for the Toronto native. But it doesn't change the fact that this has not been much of an impact player in 2023-24, and not moving on from him was Pittsburgh's biggest mistake at the trade deadline.
Still a postseason contender?
Not trading Smith was a mistake, but Dubas still did pretty well in maximizing the return for Guentzel, who was the big fish ahead of the deadline. And the Penguins are staying alive in the race, mainly because of the futility of the teams above them. The Isles have lost five in a row, the Red Wings just came out the other side of a brutal seven-game skid, and the Sabres and Devils continue to play around a .500 clip.
The point is, the Penguins aren't out of it yet. If they can string a few wins together over the next week or so, they could find themselves within four points of the final wildcard berth with about 13 games left. It's going to take an incredible heater to do it — better hockey than the Penguins have played at any point this year — but it isn't impossible.
And with Sidney Crosby doing his absolute best to try to pull the team up to his standards, it'll be intriguing to see if the Penguins can string a few wins together and make things interesting down the stretch.
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