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Before the 12-team College Football Playoff, Penn State was often the perennial bridesmaid, never the bride. In recent years, the Nittany Lions have frequently been on the outside looking in when it came to the four-team playoff, while their Big Ten rivals Ohio State and Michigan earned top-four spots. Now, with a win over Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl on Thursday, they’ll finally have a chance to play for the national championship.
The matchup pits No. 7-seeded Notre Dame (13-1) against No. 6 Penn State (13-2) in what hopes to be a clash worthy of its historical billing. This will mark the 20th meeting between the two storied programs, with the series tied at 9-9-1. It’s been 17 years since their last matchup, a game in which the Nittany Lions dominated, 31-10, in State College.
What makes this matchup particularly intriguing is the historical connection between the two teams during Penn State’s championship runs. In both of the Nittany Lions’ national title seasons, in 1982 and 1986, they not only faced Notre Dame but also defeated them en route to claiming the crown.
With the two programs set to meet again in the semifinals, is this history a good omen for Penn State, or just a curious coincidence? Either way, let’s dive into our Penn State bold predictions for their showdown with Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl.
Tyler Warren has at least 80 yards of total offense and one touchdown
Warren has been a versatile weapon for the Nittany Lions’ offense this season. You just never know what Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelicki will do with tight end Tyler Warren. He can line up all over the field, and even a defense as strong as Notre Dame’s might struggle to anticipate his next move.
After going scoreless in both the Big Ten Championship and the first-round playoff game against SMU, Warren bounced back in the Fiesta Bowl with six receptions for 63 yards and two touchdowns, helping to put away Boise State.
However, this matchup will present the toughest defense Warren and the Nittany Lions have faced since Ohio State. Against the Buckeyes, Warren was held to four receptions for 94 yards with no scores. He’ll aim to improve against the Irish, with expectations to tally at least 80 total yards of offense and one touchdown.
Drew Allar reaches 200 yards passing and two touchdowns
Drew Allar has had six games this season where he was held under 200 yards passing. For a quarterback touted as a potential top pick in the 2025 or 2026 NFL Draft, those numbers fall short of expectations. Notably, two of those sub-200-yard performances have come in Penn State’s two playoff appearances.
Against Boise State, Allar didn’t need to do much, but he still managed to throw for three touchdowns with 171 passing yards. However, more will likely be expected of him if he hopes to lead Penn State past Notre Dame and into their first national title game since 1986.
Despite the significant defensive challenge posed by the Irish, the prediction here is that Allar will rise to the occasion. Expect him to have his first 200-yard passing game since facing Minnesota, along with at least one touchdown pass.
Penn State's defense holds Notre Dame to under 100 rushing yards
When these two teams meet, it’s truly a battle of programs with similar DNA. Both teams excel defensively and rely on strong rushing attacks offensively. However, something has to give Thursday night in the Orange Bowl.
Stopping Notre Dame’s rushing attack will be a challenge for Penn State, but it’s one they’re likely prepared for. The Nittany Lions have held nine opponents under 100 rushing yards this season, allowing an average of just 100.8 yards per game for the year.
What works in Penn State’s favor is the health of Irish running back Jeremiyah Love. Love, Notre Dame’s top rusher, was nursing an injury during the Georgia game, where he was limited to just six carries for 19 yards. He was also spotted at practice on Monday wearing a brace, according to Fighting Irish Wire. If Love isn’t at full strength, it’s likely the Irish will struggle to reach 100 rushing yards against this stout Penn State defense.
Penn State beats Notre Dame, advancing to the national championship
Of the two remaining playoff matchups, the Orange Bowl is arguably the most challenging. Penn State enters as a 2.5-point underdog, which alone suggests this will likely be a close contest.
While it’s still unclear how Jeremiyah Love’s injury will impact the game, his absence or limited availability could be significant. If Notre Dame can’t establish its usual rushing attack, they may struggle to put points on the board, especially against a stout Penn State defense.
Despite having played one more game than the Irish due to the Big Ten title game, the James Franklin's Nittany Lions won't be worn out, and ultimately, they'll be the better defensive team. They’ll hold Notre Dame to under 20 points and advance to their first national championship appearance since 1986.
