Subscribe
Follow Us
As one of the best free agent starting pitchers available this offseason, Corbin Burnes will have the chance to pick from a number of enticing options. He has already met with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox, with other big market teams expected to be in the mix.
But could Burnes' best move be to just return to the Baltimore Orioles?
The O's are coming off consecutive postseason appearances and may be looking to spend this winter, meaning Burnes could return to a contender if he chooses.
Thankfully for Baltimore and every other team interested in his services, Burnes has been open about what he wants from his next team. In short, he wants to play somewhere that appreciates him (as in: will pay him) and is set up to win for a long time.
“I am going to have to do a lot of research this offseason of farm systems, young guys coming up, groups of core guys that are on a team,” Burnes told The Athletic in August. “Where does it look like teams are going to be competitive? Where are teams just looking to spend some money to make the fan base happy? Whatever it might be.
“I think I can provide value in helping to elevate some young guys on the staff. Is it a group of young pitchers where maybe they missed the postseason this year but they have the pieces to do it now and for the long term? But you never know what’s going to happen each year in baseball. So you just want to provide yourself the best chance to win, hopefully for your entire tenure, hopefully for most of your tenure, whatever it is.”
Ultimately, however, money talks. Here's where the Orioles stand in their quest to bring their ace back.
The Orioles need to demonstrate their commitment to winning
Burnes wants to play for a team set up to win, now and in the future. Thankfully for the Orioles, his free agency coincides with an offseason in which they are expected to spend. General manager Mike Elias laid out the team's priorities at the MLB General Managers Meetings in San Antonio last month, listing starting pitching, an outfield bat, catching depth and bullpen help as areas of focus.
He added that even if Baltimore is not successful in bringing back Burnes or outfielder Anthony Santander, the Orioles would have suitable backup plans in mind.
“They know it’s a young, winning team and a fun stadium, and now, we’ve got a really robust new ownership group that I think is going to continue to invest in the place and make it more and more attractive,” Elias said, per MLB.com's Jake Rill. “So I think we’re a very positive destination right now.”
MLB.com also rated the Orioles' farm system as third-best in the Majors midway through the 2024 season, though that was before Jackson Holliday finished out the year in Baltimore. The team still boasts two of the top 13 prospects in the game, per MLB Pipeline, in Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo.
Baltimore must let Corbin Burnes play a role in player development
Mayo and Basallo are both infielders, but Chayce McDermott, who was the team's No. 5 prospect, is already in the big leagues. If Burnes is going to sign somewhere long-term, he wants to play a role in building the staff for the future.
“I think I can provide value in helping to elevate some young guys on the staff,” Burnes said. “Is it a group of young pitchers where maybe they missed the postseason this year but they have the pieces to do it now and for the long term? But you never know what’s going to happen each year in baseball. So you just want to provide yourself the best chance to win, hopefully for your entire tenure, hopefully for most of your tenure, whatever it is. That’s important, knowing that you can provide more value to a team that’s going to be in the postseason and maybe elevate some young guys.”
While experience reigns in the Orioles' rotation, Baltimore also has young starters who could use Burnes as a guide. Grayson Rodriguez is just 24 and coming off a breakout second season in the bigs (13-4, 3.86 ERA). Lefty Cade Povich also came up for 16 starts in 2024 and was about as inconsistent as you'd expect a rookie to be, sometimes struggling with control and sometimes firing gems.
There's potential there and it seems Burnes wants to help unlock it.
The perfect Corbin Burnes contract from the Baltimore Orioles
Burnes made $15,637,500 last year in his final year of arbitration and his track record puts him in line for a massive payday in free agency. Given Burnes' criteria, the Orioles might not have to break the bank for him but they do need to show they're serious. If Baltimore really wants to demonstrate its commitment, it will offer Burnes a six-year contract, taking him through his age 35 season — that also shows trust that their ace, who has made four straight All-Star teams, will hold up over time.
In terms of money, the Orioles can look to Blake Snell as a guide. Snell signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers at five years and $182 million, or $36.4 million per year. Given Snell's inconsistency over the years, they most likely over-paid for him, but his upside is higher than anyone on the market with two Cy Youngs and two ERA titles to his name.
If the Orioles offer Burnes six years and $210 million, or $35 million per year, that would make him the third-highest-paid starter in baseball. That should get the job done.
