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UFC 302: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier continues on the prelims with a fight in the welterweight division between Phil Rowe and Jake Matthews. Rowe suffered his second defeat inside the octagon via a split decision his last time out meanwhile, Matthews is coming off a unanimous decision loss his last time out. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Rowe-Matthews prediction and pick.
Phil Rowe (10-4) got off to a rocky start to his UFC career dropping his debut to Gabe Green. Rowe then went on a three-fight winning streak winning all three fights by knockout only to drop his next fight against Neil Magny via a close split decision. He will look to get back to his winning ways when he takes on Jake Matthews this weekend at UFC 302.
Jake Matthews (19-7) has alternated wins and losses over his last six fights. He most recently dropped a decision to rising prospect Michael Morales his last time out. Matthews will be looking to get back to form when he takes on Phil Rowe in a must-win matchup this weekend at the Prudential Center.
Here are the UFC 302 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC 302 Odds: Phil Rowe-Jake Matthews Odds
Phil Rowe: +137
Jake Matthews: -157
Over 2.5 rounds: -150
Under 2.5 rounds: +120
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Why Phil Rowe Will Win
Phil Rowe took his first loss since 2021 against Neil Magny in June 2023 with a razor-close split-decision defeat. After a year off Rowe is back in action looking to right the ship and get back to his winning ways when he takes on Australia's Jake Matthews this weekend at UFC 302.
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Rowe has an exceptional long frame for the welterweight division. He stands in at 6'3″ with an 80″ reach giving him a 4″ height advantage and a 7″ reach advantage over Matthews. He utilizes that length very well by keeping his opponents at the end of his strikes. His striking has come a long way since stepping foot inside the Octagon winning three of his five fights by knockout and taking it to Magny on the feet in their fight.
In this matchup against Matthews, he will have the advantage at distance but he's going to need to keep it there and keep the fight on his feet. Matthews will be looking to utilize the same recipe others have had against Rowe and that is to take him down and keep him there. Since his start in the UFC, Rowe has been grappling against the world's best grapplers like Ryan Gordon and Craig Jones as he looks to get better and grow as that will come in handy in this matchup. If Rowe can utilize all that he's been learning to keep this fight upright, he can back on track this weekend.
Why Jake Matthews Will Win
Jake Matthews was looking like a top prospect when he started his UFC career 4-1 in the lightweight division only to lose consecutive fights which had him move up to 170 lbs. Since his move up to welterweight he has gone 8-4 but is now on a 2-3 skid over his last five fights most recently dropping a decision to Michael Morales. Matthews will be looking to get back on track this weekend when he takes on Phil Rowe at UFC 302.
When Matthews is on his game he's a tough competitor for anyone in the welterweight division but then there are fights where he looks lackluster like his fight against Matthew Semelsberger. However, he possesses the set of skills needed to beat Phil Rowe and that lies in his grappling. Matthews is successful on 40% of his takedowns landing 1.59 per 15 minutes which means he's attempting 3.98 takedowns per fight. If Matthews can avoid making this a kickboxing match and utilize his grappling he can get himself back into the win column this weekend at the Prudential Center.
Final Phil Rowe-Jake Matthews Prediction & Pick
This is a great scrap in the welterweight division between these two fighters looking to get themselves back into contention. While Matthews is a very well-rounded fighter, he's going to have a ton of issues with the size and length of Rowe much like he did against Morales. The way he gets it done is by utilizing his grappling but it's hard to guess whether he will do that or not. As for Rowe, if he keeps this fight on the feet with his long range he should have no problem staying out of harm's way of Matthew's attacks and just potshot his way to victory. Ultimately, if Rowe keeps this fight on the feet it's his fight to lose and if Matthews takes the fight to the mat he can submit or potentially control him from there but it will be Rowe who will be the one doing the most damage on the feet and scrambling when the grappling gets going as he outworks Matthews for a decision victory.
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Final Phil Rowe-Jake Matthews Prediction & Pick: Phil Rowe (+137), Over 2.5 Rounds (-150)
