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The Philadelphia Phillies (25-27) are trying to win a series against the Atlanta Braves (31-21) as they play their fourth game on Sunday Night Baseball! Below we will continue with our MLB odds series as we give you a Phillies-Braves prediction and pick while letting you know how to watch, as well.
Philadelphia has been hitting the ball pretty well in this series. They have a .260 batting average as a team in the three games played. Nick Castellanos is 6-13 with a double and triple while Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott have four hits each. Bohm and Bryce Harper have hit the only two home runs for the Phillies this series. On the mound, the Phillies have a 4.50 ERA in 26 innings pitched. In those innings, Philadelphia has struck out 26 batters and walked only six. 21 of the 27 hits allowed have been off the starting pitchers, so the bullpen has done a good job through the first three games of this series.
The Braves are hitting .273 in the three games played this series. Marcell Ozuna leads the team with five hits and two home runs while Austin Riley has four hits and two home runs. Sean Murphy and Michael Harris II have the other two home runs for the Braves in this series. None of the starting pitchers for the Braves have been able to notch a quality start so far in the series. Atlanta has a 4.33 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 27 innings through three games against the Phillies.
Dylan Covey and Spencer Strider will get the starts for their teams in this game.
Here are the Phillies-Braves MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Braves Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-105)
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (-126)
Over: 9 (-102)
Under: 9 (-120)
How To Watch Phillies vs. Braves
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN app
Time: 7 PM ET/4 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
With all the good Strider has done this season, there is one way to get to him. Sit fastball. He throws his fastball over 60 percent of the time. The Phillies will need to hit the fastball if they want to get to Strider in this game. Strider also has a high chase rate. Philadelphia is going to have to lay off all the pitches outside of the zone. If the Phillies can draw a few walks and run up his pitch count, Strider will be out of the game early. Philadelphia will cover the spread if they do this.
Covey was good in his last start. He went five innings and allowed just one run on five hits against a good Diamondbacks team. Covey will have to be at the top of his game if the Phillies want to pull off a series win. He has allowed three runs in nine innings this season and throws a lot of strikes. If he can keep the Braves off balance, the Phillies will cover the spread.
Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
Spencer Strider is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He is the MLB leader in K/9 among qualified pitchers and has a total of 97 strikeouts to lead the MLB. Strider has only given up 39 hits in 57 2/3 innings as well. When he is on, he is almost unhittable. Looking at the advanced stats, Strider ranks above the 90th percentile in xBA, xERA, strikeout percentage, whiff percentage, and he is in the 87th percentile in chase rate. He is mainly working two pitches right now, but that is all he needs. If Strider is on his A-game Sunday night, the Braves will cover this spread and get back in the win column.
Final Phillies-Braves Prediction & Pick
It is very hard to bet against Spencer Strider. He is a Cy Young favorite this season and has been proving why. I will roll with Strider and the Braves to cover this spread against a inferior pitcher Sunday night.
Final Phillies-Braves Prediction & Pick: -1.5 (-126), Under 9 (-120)