The Pittsburgh Pirates continue their west coast trip as they visit the San Diego Padres Monday night. Check out our MLB odds series as we hand out a Pirates-Padres prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Pirates-Padres Projected Starters
Marco Gonzales vs. Joe Musgrove
Marco Gonzales (1-1) with a 4.54 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 33.2 innings pitched, 23K/11BB, .312 oBA
Last Start: vs. San Diego Padres: No Decision, 4.2 innings, 8 hits, 5 runs, 2 walks, 3 strikeouts
2024 Road Splits: 4 starts, 3.93 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 18.1 innings pitched, 12K/8BB, .316 oBA
Joe Musgrove (3-4) with a 5.66 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 49.1 innings pitched, 44K/15BB, .305 oBA
Last Start: vs. New York Yankees: No Decision, 5.1 innings, 6 hits, 1 run, 0 walks, 5 strikeouts
2024 Home Splits: 7 starts, 5.26 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 37.2 innings pitched, 36K/7BB, .287 oBA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Pirates-Padres Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-154)
Moneyline: +138
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+128)
Moneyline: -164
Over: 8 (-115)
Under: 8 (-105)
How to Watch Pirates vs. Padres
Time: 9:40 PM ET/6:40 PM PT
TV: Sportsnet Pittsburgh, Bally Sports San Diego
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
Pittsburgh is not playing their best baseball right now. Pittsburgh has to get hot with their bats if they want to win this game and start playing better. They are facing Joe Musgrove who was struggling prior to hitting the IL back in May. Musgrove made one rehab start, but it did not go so well. He threw 3.1 innings, allowed two runs on four hits, and walked one. The Pirates should be able to reach base off Musgrove, they just have to stay patient at the plate. Along with that, I do not expect Musgrove to go deep into this game. If the Pirates can get to Musgrove, and force the Padres to use multiple relievers, they should at least cover the spread.
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres have already played the Pirates this year, and that was just last week. In that series, the Padres walked away with a sweep. Two of the games were one-run games, but the Padres were able to sweep the Pirates. With that, the Padres have played some very good baseball lately. They are just 2.5 games out of first place in the NL West, and it is because of their 9-1 record in their last 10 games. Since the All-Star break, the Padres are 16-3 heading into Sunday's game. With how well they are playing, the Padres should be able to win this game easily.
San Diego has already faced Marco Gonzales this season. In that game, the Padres were able to record eight hits and five runs. This should come as no surprise as the Padres are one of the better offensive teams in the MLB. They lead the MLB in batting average, they are eighth in slugging percentage, and they have the lowest whiff percentage. The Padres make a lot of contact, and they make hard contact. Marco Gonzales allows opponents to hit over .300 off him, so I expect the Padres to have a similar offensive output off him on Monday. If they do that, they will win this game.
Final Pirates-Padres Prediction & Pick
Do not overthink this game. The Padres are playing their best baseball right now, and that will continue in this game. I will take the Padres to win this game, and cover the spread.
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Final Pirates-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5 (+128)
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