Even though Caitlin Clark has only been in the WNBA for less than a season, she already has her name in the league's record books. Through her first 26 games as a pro, Clark gets a lot of praise for her ability to score the basketball boasting an average of 17.1 points a game. What gets overlooked is her assist numbers, averaging over 8.2 assists a game, a league high. Clark had already topped the single-game assist record (19) previously held by Courtney Vandersloot when she had 18 dimes in 2020. If she can already do that in her freshman season, it begs the question:
How many assist records can Clark break by the time she retires? We did the math, but it did come with a few assumptions.
Caitlin Clark's rookie season will be one for the history books
The first assumption in figuring out when Clark will break the all-time assist record is assuming she can maintain her current pace for the Indiana Fever's last 14 games of the season and for the rest of her career. If so, Clark would become the first rookie in WNBA history to lead the league in assists. As of this writing, Clark has 213 assists. If she can rack up assist numbers similar to her current averages for the last 14 games, that would give Clark around 325 assists total, breaking the record for most assists by a player in a single season by 9 dimes. It goes without saying that Clark would also set the rookie record for most assists in a season.
How many seasons will it take Clark to catch Sue Bird’s all-time assist record?
Sue Bird currently holds the all-time assist record with 3,234 dimes playing 580 games over 19 seasons. To put that into perspective, Bird averaged 5.6 assists per game playing in nearly 80% of her games each season.
Since we gave Clark a bit of a boost with our first assumption, claiming she can maintain a career assist average of 8.2 her entire career, the second assumption will make it more realistic. While it can be hard to predict how durable a player can be each season, let's assume Clark can play a similar number of games per season as Bird. What this means is that Clark will play in about 32 games each season.
If Clark can average 8.2 assists while playing 32 games a season, the math suggests she could break Bird’s record by the midpoint of her 13th season. That brings her total games played to 400 games, a figure that's significantly fewer than the 580 games Bird played to reach her record.
Can Clark really sustain an assist average of 8.2 her entire career?
For those who doubt Clark’s ability to sustain her current averages, consider this stat:
Her assist numbers have only increased as she’s gained more experience in the league. In her first month as a pro, Clark averaged 6.6 assists per game. By her second month, Clark's assist numbers rose to 7.2. In her third month, she nearly doubled her assist average dishing out 12.5 assists per game.
While Caitlin Clark is widely celebrated for how she's been able to launch the WNBA into the spotlight, it’s her passing that could ultimately define her legacy in women’s basketball when it's all said and done.
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