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As we await the third week of the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday, there will likely be another shakeup after the losses of Tennessee and BYU. The No. 7 Volunteers took a road loss to rival No. 12 Georgia, while the No. 6 Cougars were upset at home by Kansas.
Tennessee's loss feels much more significant than BYU's. While it remains to be seen how the committee evaluates the Vols' defeat, their Week 12 matchup against the Bulldogs was largely considered a playoff elimination game.
As for BYU, the Cougars could easily fall outside of the Top 12 rankings. However, they remain in first place in the Big 12 and, should they capture the conference title, they would earn an automatic playoff berth with a bye. The biggest implication of BYU's loss is that it essentially ensures the Big 12 will have just one team in the 12-team playoff field.
While we wait for Tuesday, here are our College Football Playoff rankings predictions before the release.
1. Oregon Ducks
The best of the remaining undefeated teams is undoubtedly the Oregon Ducks, though their flawless record was nearly blemished this past weekend. Oregon edged out Wisconsin in a nail-biter, relying on a critical late fourth-quarter interception to secure a narrow 16-13 victory over the Badgers. This marked the Ducks' most tightly contested game since their mid-October showdown against Ohio State.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State took care of business in Week 12, with a comfortable 31-7 victory over Northwestern at Wrigley Field. The Buckeyes' next significant game comes this week when they host college football's biggest surprise team, Indiana, in a pivotal conference matchup with the winner likely heading to the Big Ten title game.
3. Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns escaped Fayetteville with a win over Arkansas in Week 12, but they still lack a victory against a currently ranked opponent. Despite this, the committee's apparent favoritism toward Texas, as evidenced by last week's Top 3 ranking, suggests their No. 3 ranking is unlikely to change.
4. Penn State Nittany Lions
Another team scrutinized for its lack of marquee wins is the Nittany Lions, who will likely remain at No. 4 in the College Football Playoff rankings. Penn State appears to be a near lock for the playoff barring any unexpected collapse.
5. Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana was idle in Week 12, which bodes well for them before what should be their Top 5 matchup against Ohio State in Columbus. A win over the Buckeyes would not only mark a monumental upset but also secure the Hoosiers a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game.
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Beating Virginia wasn’t exactly a major win for Notre Dame in Week 12, but with BYU and Tennessee both losing, the Irish are primed to climb in the third installment of the College Football Playoff rankings.
7. Miami Hurricanes
Cam Ward and Miami remain in control of their destiny despite suffering their first loss to Georgia Tech two weeks ago. With the Hurricanes on a bye in Week 12, they’re still poised for a potential rankings boost this week, climbing from ninth to seventh.
8. Alabama Crimson Tide
Again, the bottom half of the Top 12 is expected to see some movement in this week’s rankings. Alabama’s win over LSU two weeks ago was a significant boost to their playoff hopes, and Tennessee’s second conference loss—despite their earlier win over the Crimson Tide—further strengthens Alabama’s position.
9. Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss is largely responsible for the current chaos in the SEC. The Rebels’ 18-point victory over Georgia two weeks ago has created a logjam in the conference standings, forcing the committee to grapple with some tough decisions heading into this week’s rankings.
10. Georgia Bulldogs
Facing likely playoff elimination against Tennessee, the Bulldogs delivered in a major way in Week 12, securing a decisive victory over the Volunteers. Instead of being the first team out, as they were in last week’s College Football Playoff rankings, Georgia is poised to move into one of the final three spots. A No. 10 ranking seems likely.
11. Boise State Broncos
Boise State entered last week ranked No. 13 but was positioned as the highest-ranked Group of Five team, securing the presumed fifth and final automatic bid. With the shakeup among other teams this week, the Broncos are likely to see a slight bump, moving into the Top 12.
12. SMU Mustangs
Could this be the week SMU finally gets the respect it deserves in the College Football Playoff rankings? That remains to be seen. The Mustangs were surprisingly ranked No. 14 last week despite being undefeated in conference play—a status they maintained with their Week 12 win over Boston College. As the current leaders of the ACC, SMU has a strong case for a higher ranking. The key question is whether they will be ranked ahead of Tennessee or BYU in this week’s update.
Tennessee, BYU predicted to drop out of Top 10 in College Football Playoff rankings
In this inaugural year of the 12-team College Football Playoff, precedents are undoubtedly being set. With a committee of voters determining the fate of teams—and those voters not immune to biases—criticism is bound to surface.
Through just two weeks of rankings, there have already been notable inconsistencies that committee chair Warde Manuel has struggled to explain. With that in mind, would it be shocking if Tennessee or BYU remains in the Top 12? Not entirely. But based on prior patterns, it seems unlikely.
BYU debuted at No. 9 in the first week of rankings and moved up to No. 6 last week, despite barely beating a 4-5 Utah team in the Holy War. Where the Cougars land this Tuesday is anyone's guess. For the committee, they don't have to worry about keeping a Big 12 team in the Top 12 given the automatic bid.
For Tennessee, their drop will likely measured on how the committee treated Georgia after its loss to Ole Miss last week. The Bulldogs fell from No. 3 to No. 12 following their second loss. With Tennessee losing by 14 to that same Georgia team in their second loss, the Volunteers may find themselves on the outside looking in.
Elsewhere, Clemson kept their slim ACC title hopes alive with a win over Pitt to finish 7-1 in conference play. Meanwhile, Deion Sanders and Colorado likely won’t need committee help if they win the Big 12 title, but the Buffaloes should be inching closer to the Top 12 regardless.
