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In the first of two title fights taking place on Dec. 7, WBO featherweight champion Rafael Espinoza (25-0) will rematch former titleholder Robeisy Ramirez (14-2) 12 months after beating him to claim the belt. It is time to continue our boxing odds series with an Esponiza-Ramirez prediction and pick.
Entering the first fight as a relatively unknown challenger, Espinoza claimed one of the biggest upsets of 2023 with his majority decision win over Ramirez in December 2023. Since then, he has defended the title once, finishing Sergio Chirino Sanchez in the fourth round in June.
Ramirez has also fought one time since their barn burner to close out 2023, knocking out Brandon Leon Benitez in the seventh round one week after Espinoza beat Sanchez. The loss to Espinoza was Ramirez's first since his professional debut in 2019 which came three years after he won his second Olympic gold medal in London.
Here are the Espinoza-Ramirez odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: Rafael Espinoza-Robeisy Ramirez Odds
Rafael Espinoza: +104
Robeisy Ramirez: -126
Over 10.5 Rounds: -205
Under 10.5 Rounds: +158
How to Watch Rafael Espinoza vs. Robeisy Ramirez
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. PT
TV/Stream: ESPN+
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access / Save $30)*
Why Rafael Espinoza Will Win
Teddy Atlas famously said that boxers always get 30 percent better once they become the champion. That sure seemed to be the case for Espinoza, who effortlessly knocked out Sanchez in just four rounds for his first title defense. Ramirez is certainly a level above Sanchez, but the confidence and improvements he showed were substantial.
Espinoza's biggest edge over Ramirez is his size, as he holds a massive seven-inch height and six-inch reach advantage. His range was a big issue for Ramirez the first time around, who struggled to get going and got stuck in his guard too often, allowing Espinoza to steal rounds. The pressure was also an issue for Ramirez as Espinoza, despite having less power, scored a knockdown in the final round of the first fight solely due to fatigue and overwhelming force. If Espinoza can be the fighter throwing more in the face of Ramirez again, he will continue to dictate the pace and timing.
It was only roughly 10 minutes of fighting, but Espinoza's speed also looked improved against Sanchez. If he can match Ramirez's speed the second time around, it will be difficult for the Cuban to reclaim the title.
Why Robeisy Ramirez Will Win
For as big as Espinoza is, he does not establish range very well. Espinoza loves to brawl far too much, which is simultaneously one of his biggest strengths and weaknesses. Ramirez struggled with the range of Espinoza last December but was able to lure the Mexican into a close-quarters exchange to score an early knockdown and nearly end the fight several times.
When in the pocket, Ramirez is the far more defensively sound fighter. Espinoza gets hit, and he gets hit a lot. Head movement is not his forte, and neither is keeping his hands up. Espinoza is the definition of an “offense is my defense” type of fighter, which Ramirez was able to exploit at times in their first fight before he gassed out and melted under the pressure late. Ramirez has now had 12 rounds to figure out the timing of Espinoza.
As the fighter with more power in his hands, his biggest priority needs to be refraining from backing up and allowing Espinoza to get ahead of him again. Body shots would also serve Ramirez well against a tall man like Espinoza; he landed just 16 of them in their first fight.
Final Espinoza-Ramirez Prediction & Pick
Ramirez felt like the better fighter in the first match who just allowed the win to slip away as he simply did not have enough in him in the later rounds. Neither fighter has ever been knocked out, but it was Ramirez who was seconds away from finishing the first fight. Then again, it was Espinoza who had all the momentum late in that fight. Had there been a 13th round, he could have gotten Ramirez out of there.
Espinoza has to be nearly flawless for 36 minutes to win this fight, which is a tough ask against a boxer as skilled as Ramirez. It is just difficult to see much changing from the first matchup, given how much Ramirez struggled with the length of the 6-foot-1 champion. Espinoza's love of brawling could certainly do him in against a right hand as powerful as Ramirez's, but his durability and recovery have been elite to this point.
One would think that 12 rounds is enough time for a fighter as experienced and decorated as Ramirez to get the timing down of an opponent like Espinoza, but it was the latter who settled in more as their first meeting developed. Power is always the great equalizer, but Espinoza has never been knocked out in his career and Ramirez has struggled more often than not past the fifth round.
Final Espinoza-Ramirez Prediction & Pick: Rafael Espinoza (+104)
