This season did not go according to plan for the Toronto Raptors. After a promising campaign in 2021 that saw them net the fifth seed, fans were hoping to see some good progress from this team. At the very least, they could maintain their form from last year… right? Well, a sophomore slump and regression from key players meant that Toronto was playing sub-.500 ball for most of the season.

Thanks to the new Play-In Tournament, the Raptors are almost assuredly guaranteed a chance at a playoff berth… somehow. At the time of writing, Toronto has the ninth seed in the East. The eleventh-seeded Wizards are three games behind them. So long as they don't completely collapse, Toronto has a chance to make it to the Play-In.

That doesn't mean it's all sunshine from now, though. One could even argue that the Raptors are in the worst possible position for the playoffs. Let's take a look at the nightmare scenario for Toronto as the playoffs come closer.

Play-In Tournament: Everything is a nightmare

A quick refresher on the Play-In Tournament: the first round of games are between the 7th-8th seeds and the 9th-10th seeds. The winner of the 7-8 game gets the “official” seventh seed, while the loser faces the winner of the 9-10 game. Whoever wins that final game gets the last seed.

What the means is that getting the 9th or 10th seed locks you in to the 8 seed at best. That means that even if you make it out of the Play-In, you're going to face the top seed of the conference. In the East, that means facing off against the Milwaukee Bucks: a way-too-familiar foe for the Raptors in recent years.

For this reason alone, you can argue that the Raptors need to push for the eighth seed, if only to get a chance of avoiding an unwelcome Greek invasion in the first round. However, even that eighth seed has its perils. Barring any sudden changes, the Raptors' two possible opponents in a hypothetical 7-8 clash are the Nets and the Heat.

The Nets are a well-rounded team that can give any good team fits with their defense (despite recent struggles). The Raptors' anemic offense could struggle heavily against their strong defense, led by Mikal Bridges and Nic Claxton. On the other hand… the Heat are almost never an easy out for Toronto. Games against Miami are physical battles that can go either way. Miami is struggling as of late, but they will almost assuredly put up a a fight in the Play-In.

In short: the Play-In Tournament is hell on earth for the Raptors. And unfortunately, it's virtually impossible for them to skip the Play-In. They are four games behind the sixth seed, and also happen to have the fourth-hardest schedule left. They have two games against the Celtics left, one against the Bucks, and one against the Sixers. Unless Pascal Siakam goes God mode and their opponents collapse, there's no way Toronto is skipping the Play-In.

The Raptors' (Actual) Hardest Road

Let's say that the Raptors do somehow make it out of the Play-In tournament. What's the absolute worst path for Toronto in that scenario?

Well, the short answer is that… everything is hard for the Raptors if they make it to the playoffs. The East is ridiculously top-heavy this year, and they'll have to face some damn good teams if they're gunning for the title. Let's look at the worst seeding possible for Toronto.

  1. Bucks
  2. Celtics
  3. Sixers
  4. Cavs
  5. Knicks
  6. Nets
  7. Raptors (via Play-In)
  8. Heat (via Play-In)

It seems odd at first glance: why would the worst playoff scenario for the Raptors be them at the seventh seed? Wouldn't it be worse for them to get the last seed? If Toronto was the eighth seed, they would theoretically face the Cavs (or the Knicks) in the second round. Cleveland hasn't fared well against Toronto this year, which sort of cancels out the toughness of the 1-8 series against the Bucks.

This NBA playoff scenario for Toronto, though, maximizes the difficulty level for the Raptors. In the first round, they'll take on an Atlantic rival in the Celtics. Boston owns the head-to-head matchup this season, and have the personnel to clamp Pascal Siakam (the Raptors' biggest offensive threat). The Cs are also simply a supremely talented and a much deeper team than Toronto (a common theme throughout this scenario, unfortunately).

If Toronto gets out of the 2-7 matchup in the NBA playoffs, they'll either face noted Raptors villain Joel Embiid or the fiesty Nets. We already talked about why the Nets could be a tough out earlier. The Sixers are a much, much different beast, though. Toronto struggled to defend Embiid in the last playoff series. This time around, they have Jakob Poeltl as the big body to throw at Joel. Tyrese Maxey's speed was also too much to handle for the Raptors guards last year, and James Harden is, well, Harden.

And of course, the piece de resistance in this nightmarish playoffs landscape for the Raptors is the ECF Finals matchup against the Bucks. The Raptors have the same problem with Antetokounmpo: it's hard for the team to match up against him. The last few playoffs have also proven that Giannis can break the “wall” strategy popularized by Toronto during their title run.

If the Raptors somehow make it out of this nightmare playoff matchup scenarios, then they should be favored to win it all. Surviving that gauntlet is extremely tough and unlikely though.