The NBA Play-In Tournament is set to get underway on Tuesday night, and while the nine and ten seeds in each conference won't be taking the court just yet, they will be paying close attention to this game, as the loser of the games played on Tuesday will play the winner of the games on Wednesday. In the Eastern Conference, the Toronto Raptors will be taking on the Chicago Bulls in the nine-ten game.
It's been a strange season for both the Raptors and the Bulls to this point. Both teams have a lot of talent on their roster, but consistently found ways to disappoint fans throughout the season. Now, they have a chance to rally to find their way into the playoffs as the eight seed in the East, but they will have to win this game in order to have a shot to do so.
The Raptors have a lot on the line in this game, as there could be some serious turnover on their roster this offseason, especially if they end up flaming out of the Play-In Tournament early on. So with that in mind, let's pick out Toronto's key X-factor for this game and see why he will play such an important role in determining who will win this game.
Raptors X-factor vs. Bulls: Fred VanVleet
Among the players in Toronto that had a strange 2022-23 campaign was Fred VanVleet. VanVleet's status as the team's starting point guard hasn't always gone according to plan, and he didn't really have a great season for Toronto this year. That doesn't mean he can't step up with his team's season on the line against a vulnerable opponent.
VanVleet's numbers on the season aren't awful (19.3 PPG, 7.2 APG, 4.1 RPG, 39.3 FG%, 34.2 3P%) but his efficiency splits remain very concerning. VanVleet shoots the ball quite a bit, and while he continues to make strides as a playmaker, he won't be a truly reliable option on offense until his shots begin to fall more frequently.
This could be a game where VanVleet takes over for Toronto, though. VanVleet has been a streaky shooter throughout his career, but if he can catch fire in this game, it would likely lead the Raptors to a win. And on both sides of the ball, VanVleet is going to be crucial to what Toronto is looking to accomplish.
Offensively, this game may come down to whether or not VanVleet can hit his threes. VanVleet's three-point shooting took a step back this season (37.7 percent last season to 34.2 percent this season) but he still can find his shot at any point in time. Against the Bulls, there's a decent chance that could end up happening for VanVleet here.
The main detriment for VanVleet is that he likely will see a lot of Patrick Beverley in this game, which could limit his impact on offense. Beverley is a tenacious defender who started each of his 22 games while with Chicago, and he will almost certainly be tasked with sticking to VanVleet like glue. However, if VanVleet can hunt mismatches, and there are going to be quite a few of them elsewhere, he should find more freedom.
The other aspect for VanVleet to focus on is his passing. Hitting threes will open up the floor for VanVleet's teammates, but even then, there will be opportunities for VanVleet to rack up his assists. The ideal situation for Toronto likely involves VanVleet scoring 20 points and dishing out ten assists in this game; if that happens, the Raptors probably win.
Defensively, VanVleet is coming off of a strong season, and will likely be following Beverley around the floor. While Beverley is a strong defender, he isn't a very strong offensive player, which will give VanVleet the freedom to create havoc in this game. VanVleet averaged 1.8 steals per game this season, and with him guarding Beverley, he will likely be throwing himself as a double-teamer or extra defender in the paint more than any of his teammates.
Having VanVleet be the Raptors key X-factor is, well, frightening. There aren't many other players who can run hot or cold like he can, and his performance could determine how things play out for Toronto. He's going to have the ability to wreak havoc on both sides of the ball; it's just a matter of whether or not he actually can.
This is a huge game not just for the Raptors, but for VanVleet as well. If he crumbles in this big game, will he have a future with this team? If VanVleet can hit his threes and make a big impact on offense in this game, chances are the Raptors will win. But if he can't, an offseason filled with questions will get underway far sooner than initially expected.
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