The Boston Red Sox (28-24) are looking to complete the sweep as they take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (29-23). This game will continue our MLB odds series with a Red Sox-Diamondbacks prediction and pick while we let you know how to watch, as well.
Boston is hitting well in this series as they have an average of .278 in the two games. Triston Casas has four hits and two doubles while Alex Verdugo has three hits of his own. Six other players on the Red Sox have collected two hits on the series. Enrique Hernandez has hit the only home run for Boston in the two games played at Chase Field. On the mound, the Red Sox have a 1.50 ERA in 18 innings pitched. They have allowed just 10 hits, and three earned runs while walking only two batters. Their bullpen has thrown eight innings and given up just one run on three hits while striking out six.
The Diamondbacks have clearly not been hitting the ball well in this series as they are batting .159. Ketel Marte, Emmanuel Rivera and Jose Herrera have two hits each, but the Diamondbacks have just 10 on the series. Marte does have a home run, though. On the mound, the Diamondbacks have a 4.50 ERA, but Brandon Pfaadt has allowed five of their nine runs given up. Neither starter for Arizona has made it out of the fourth inning this weekend, so the Diamondbacks' bullpen has been used a lot. Nine different relievers have thrown for the Diamondbacks in the two games played.
Tanner Houck and Merrill Kelly will get the ball to start this game.
Here are the Red Sox-Diamondbacks MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Diamondbacks Odds
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+146)
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-176)
Over: 8.5 (-115)
Under: 8.5 (-105)
How To Watch Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks
TV: NESN, Bally Sports Arizona
Stream: MLB TV Subscription
Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
Houck has been better than his stats suggest. He has allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his nine starts this season and he has a 1.25 WHIP. That is pretty good for a guy with a 4.99 ERA. Looking at the advanced stats, Houck is abover average in xERA, xBA, barrel percentage, whiff percentage and xSLG. As mentioned, he has a 4.99 ERA, but his xERA is 3.61. He does not allow a lot of barrels or hard hits and the numbers suggest teams have been getting a little bit lucky against him this season. If he can give up just three runs or less, the Red Sox will cover the spread.
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover The Spread
Kelly is having a solid season for the Diamondbacks. He has a 2.98 ERA through 10 starts and 57 1/3 innings pitched. In those innings, Kelly has allowed just 39 hits while striking out 59. He has a low WHIP of 1.08, as well. Kelly is in the 93rd percentile in chase rate, so he does a good job at starting pitches over the plate and letting them break out of the zone. He will need to get the Red Sox lineup to chase a little bit in this game if he wants to keep the Diamondbacks within a run.
Kelly has been very good in May. He has a 2.88 ERA in 25 innings pitched and WHIP below 1.00 to go along with 29 strikeouts. In three of his four starts this month, Kelly has gone at least six innings. In all four, he has given up four hits or less. As long as Kelly can limit the extra base hits, the Diamondbacks will cover the spread.
Final Red Sox-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
This game should end up being close, but the Diamonbacks will cover the spread. With Merrill Kelly on the mound, Arizona has a chance to not only cover the spread, but win the game and avoid being swept.
Final Red Sox-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-176), Under 8.5 (-105)