The Cincinnati Reds and Miami Marlins began their four-game series on August 5th, with the Reds earning a 10-3 win. They continued their dominance over the Marlins on Tuesday night with an 8-2 victory. The Reds have been trying to claw their way back into the playoff picture in the National League, but the losses are starting to pile up, and they sit too far back in the standings. The Reds are trying not to get too high from these victories, as the Marlins are among the worst teams in the league. The Marlins have a 42-72 record and lost six of their last ten games. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Reds-Marlins prediction and pick.
Reds-Marlins Projected Starters
Andrew Abbott vs. Valente Bellozo
Andrew Abbott (9-8) with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP.
Last Start: vs Giants, 4 1/3 IP, 8 SO, 7 H, 1 BB, 2 ER, 1 HR
2024 Road Splits: (5-4) with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.
Valente Bellozo (0-1) with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP.
Last Start: @ Braves, 5 IP, 5 SO, 2 H, 2 BB, 2 ER, 1 HR
2024 Home Splits: (0-1) with a 9.00 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Reds-Marlins Odds
Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+110)
Moneyline: -150
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-135)
Moneyline: +125
Over: 8.5 (-105)
Under: 8.5 (-115)
How to Watch Reds vs. Marlins
Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports Networks
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Reds Will Cover The Spread/Win
Andrew Abbott has been getting zero help over his last three starts. The Reds won six of Abbott's first seven starts, but their offense dried up lately. The Reds scored two runs in his past three starts and have had zero runs in two consecutive games. Cincinnati shouldn't have that trouble against Valente Bellozo and the Marlins.
Bellozo was hot out of the gates by pitching a scoreless, two-hit, five-inning performance in his first career start. The wheels came off in his next appearance, allowing five earned runs over five innings against the Red Sox. The Marlins saw something they didn't like after that start, and Bellozo didn't get another opportunity until a month later. Bellozo's appearance on August 2nd went a bit better, as he pitched five innings with just two earned runs. However, the team lost his third consecutive start.
The Reds will need to pick up their hitting to win, as they are averaging just four runs/nine over their last ten games against right-handed pitching.
Why The Marlins Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Marlins may be among the worst teams in the league, but they may have the upper hand in this matchup. They are batting .232 with a .330 on-base percentage against left-handed pitching over their last ten games and averaged 5.5 runs/nine. It isn't often this season that the Marlins will be the better-hitting team in a matchup, meaning bettors can take advantage of a rare occurrence.
Final Reds-Marlins Prediction & Pick
It seems the Marlins have the advantage in this matchup, but betting on them can scare people off. There could be some value in taking the over in this matchup, considering the inconsistency of Bellozo and the Marlins' success against lefties. Both teams' bullpens have also been abysmal, owning ERAs above 5.00 over their last three games. The Marlins offense can go quiet, but they should score enough to hit the over here.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Reds-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Over 8.5 (-105)
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