If the 2023 MLB season is to be remembered for one thing, it would undoubtedly be the incredible performance of Shohei Ohtani. Right from the outset of the season, baseball fans found themselves captivated by this two-way superstar. A significant part of this intrigue stemmed from the anticipation of witnessing something unprecedented — observing him dominate on the pitcher's mound, striking out opposing hitters in one half of an inning, only to promptly launch home runs out of the ballpark in the next half while at the plate. Yet, this wasn't the sole reason for his magnetism. What initially began as bedazzled fascination evolved into a vigilant observance as speculation arose about the possibility of the Los Angeles Angels considering Ohtani for a trade deal before the trade deadline. However, that scenario never came to fruition. Now, the very scenario that was assumed to be the worst outcome for both the Angels and Ohtani has materialized. Regrettably, the Angels once again find themselves falling short of a playoff berth, and their most outstanding player, Ohtani, is dealing with an injury.

Does Shohei Ohtani still deserve a massive deal in free agency?

The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal recently wrote a piece declaring that Ohtani is still worth a $500 million contract once he hits free agency this winter. Rosenthal argued this point knowing of Ohtani's ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) injury, of course.

The debate amongst fans and analysts all season long has been that of Ohtani's worth and just how large his eventual contract would be. Because when he was healthy, Ohtani was set to embark on a new precedent set in all of the major sports. There were no guidelines or parameters on how to structure such a deal for an athlete, especially not in the modern era where hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake. Would it be possible to pay him as one of the best hitters in the league, similar to Aaron Judge, and also pay him as one of the best pitchers in the league, similar to Gerrit Cole? Rosenthal seems to believe that his injury clarifies that a bit more now.

“His injury actually brings a degree of clarity to his free agency,” Rosenthal wrote. “The team that signs Ohtani will pay him as a hitter. Anything he provides as a pitcher will be a bonus. The calculations we’ve all made for the past several months — Is he worth $400 million as a hitter? $300 million as a pitcher? How should teams value the additional income he generates? — no longer apply.”

Just before that, to begin his column, Rosenthal wrote, “He’s still worth $500 million, if not more.”

But is he, though?

Shohei Ohtani will turn 30 next July

Many forget that Ohtani played professionally in Japan for five years before joining the Angels. And while he was there, he pitched and hit, which was one of the main conditions before joining. Ohtani will still be just 29 years old when he hits free agency, but as we've seen previously with players either entering or about to hit 30 years old, they seek long-term contracts. Just recently we've seen the New York Yankees' Aaron Judge accomplish this, signing a nine-year, $360 million contract at 31 years old this past offseason. Ohtani won't turn 30 until July of next year.

We've already seen what the Yankees look like without Judge. After their captain went down with a toe injury earlier in the year for a significant amount of time, the Yankees never truly got going offensively. Heck, you really have to look no further than some of the Angels contracts. Take for instance Anthony Rendon, 33, who signed a seven-year, $245 million dollar contract with the Angels at age 30, according to Spotrac. Rendon has yet to play anything close to a full season for LA, where the most he's played in one season is 58 games.

I'll even add Mike Trout, 32, to this. The closest Trout has come to a full season of play in the past seven seasons was the 2020 pandemic season when he played 53 of the 60 games shortened season. Just in the past three seasons, including this year where he's been out with a hamate bone injury, he's played a total of 237 games since he signed his 12-year, $426.5 million contract at the age of 27. He'll be 39 when his deal is up.

But the worst of these deals was the Albert Pujols deal. Back in 2011, the Angels signed the then-31-year-old Pujols to a 10-year, $240 million contract that he never got to fully play out because they designated him for assignment before his final year was up.

These were all great players, especially Pujols and Trout, but we've seen what happens once they hit 30 and beyond. But age is like they say, just a number. The byproduct that comes with aging is the issue for professional athletes who endure long, grueling seasons like baseball that consists of 162 games. Now take Ohtani's workload, which is basically doubling that of every other major leaguer. We should consider ourselves lucky he hasn't broken down yet.

Shohei Ohtani has already had Tommy John surgery

Ohtani underwent his first Tommy John surgery back in October of 2018. He returned as a hitter in early May the next year. Tommy John surgery is a grueling procedure that requires significant recovery time, especially for pitchers. A second surgery is even more significant for the player and may not provide him with the ability to pitch effectively again. Of course, that doesn't mean Ohtani still can't be a valuable hitter. Just this past offseason, Bryce Harper had to undergo Tommy John surgery after he tore his UCL. Harper returned after only 160 days post-surgery. However, it was clear that Harper may have returned too early, as he's just now returning to his Bryce Harper form. But, Harper has been limited all season in the field, even playing first base at times because he had little to no ability to throw.

If Ohtani undergoes the procedure for a second time, I'm guessing his career as a pitcher is all but done. If he did want to pitch, and whatever team that he signs for allows him to do that, he wouldn't be on the mound until sometime in probably early 2025, at 31 years old. Regardless, Ohtani will still potentially miss up to half of 2024.

As appealing as Ohtani is still to any team owner, you have to rightly gauge what you are going to get from him once you sign him. You have to consider his age and his injury history, and then calculate what exactly his value is and how you're going to use him to benefit your team. Because now the six-tool player — yes, his starting pitching ability gives him an unprecedented sixth tool — that he once was is down to four now that he has throwing issues.

Any owner seeking Ohtani's services in the future should be wise in their endeavor to sign him. Sure, he seems unlike any athlete that's ever graced this planet since its creation. But his body is proving that it's just as susceptible to failure as everybody else's. Buyer beware.