There was a point in the 2023 season where it looked like everything was lining up perfectly for Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers. They were 7-4 and quarterback Kenny Pickett had just played his best game in a win over the Cincinnati Bengals. With the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots coming to town, it seemed like a guarantee that the Steelers would move to 9-4 and would challenge the Baltimore Ravens for first place in the AFC North.
Of course, that hasn't ended up happening to this point. Pickett suffered an ankle injury against the Cardinals, and they lost that game with Mitch Trubisky playing the second half at quarterback. Trubisky got the nod against the Patriots and Indianapolis Colts in the ensuing weeks, and both of those games resulted in losses.
Yes, a pattern has developed.
Mike Tomlin and the Steelers will give the ball to Mason Rudolph when they host the surging and revenge-minded Bengals in Week 16. They close with the Seattle Seahawks and Ravens in Weeks 17 & 18, so a 7-10 finish is not out of the question for a team that seemed to be well on their way to making the playoffs.
Brutal finish seems likely for Mike Tomlin, Steelers
Closing the year with a six-game losing streak is not great for any coach’s future, and Mike Tomlin is clearly under the gun. However, the Steelers are not going to need a new head coach in 2024 unless Tomlin decides to leave on his own.
“The Steelers simply don’t operate that way, and everyone knows that,” said one NFC coach. “They believe in their head coach and that system has worked for them. There will be a time when Mike is no longer coaching the Steelers, but it won’t be the 2024 season.”
Tomlin knows there has been criticism and that his leadership is being questioned after 17 years at the helm. He has no issues with the scrutiny.
“This is professional football,” Mike Tomlin said. “What we do gets analyzed. If you’ve been in this business any length of time, you know and understand that, and hopefully, you embrace that. The competitor in you better embrace that.”
Even with the Steelers staring down the barrel of an awful finish to the season, it would be foolish to expect to see anyone other than Mike Tomlin in charge of this team again next season.
Detroit Lions not over hump yet in NFC North
The Detroit Lions have been one of the NFL’s top teams throughout the season and head coach Dan Campbell has drawn plenty of attention for his ability to inspire his team and ensure that his players come with maximum effort on an every-week basis.
The Lions have a three-game lead in the NFC North with three games to go in the regular season. They appear to be in a position where they will win the division without much of an issue, but that may not be the case, as two of their games are against the Minnesota Vikings – the team chasing them in their division – and the other is on the road against the Dallas Cowboys.
No team has gone into Dallas and beaten the Cowboys, and they have only played one close game at home this year. They have blown out the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles along the way, and AT&T Stadium is one of the most intimidating venues in the NFL.
If the Lions can’t beat the Vikings in either of their head-to-head showdowns in Weeks 16 and 18, they could lose the division. Assuming the Lions were to lose and, and the Vikings were to win their three remaining games – they host the Green Bay Packers in Week 17 – they would win the division with the same 10-7 record as the Lions because they would have defeated Campbell’s team twice.
NFL chess match is not in Dan Campbell's favor
Campbell’s ability to rally his team has never been in question, but there are legitimate questions about his ability to come up with the in-game strategies needed against high-quality teams. The in-game chess match that goes on between coaching staffs is not Campbell’s strength as the Lions prepare to face Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings.
This does appear to be something that O'Connell can use to help his team succeed, especially with defensive coordinator Brian Flores on his side. The Vikings love to blitz, as they have sent pressure on 47.7 percent of their defensive snaps this season. Detroit quarterback Jared Goff plays extremely well when he has a clean pocket, but he struggles when opponents send more than four pass rushers.
This came into focus in Week 14 against the Chicago Bears, when the Lions lost 28-13. Goff was held to just 161 passing yards and one touchdown against two interceptions. He was sacked four times by the Bears, and left tackle Taylor Decker struggled against Yannick Ngakoue, who demonstrated his strength and power throughout the game.
The Vikings would appear to have a significant advantage with their pass rush in this matchup. Edge rusher Danielle Hunter is the Vikings best defensive player and one of the top pass rushers in the NFL, with his 15.5 sacks being the second-highest figure in the league currently. He is joined by D.J. Wonnum, who has eight sacks of his own so far this season. In addition to loving the blitz, Flores will not come at the Lions with predictable defensive packages.
Goff and his offensive line – especially Decker – will be challenged to know where the pressure will come from. Hunter and Wonnum move around throughout the game, and the Vikings will also send other blitzers like Harrison Smith and Josh Metellus at various points.
Lions' offensive line has issues
Are Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson capable of devising a strategy that defeats the Minnesota pass rush? Other than using maximum protection on every pass play, the Lions appear to be vulnerable. The weakness at left tackle, along with Goff’s inability to handle pressure, could give the Vikings an advantage in their Week 16 game at U.S. Bank Stadium.
The Lions are coming off a 42-17 victory in Week 15 over the Broncos. Decker and his teammates protected Goff, and they are feeling better about themselves.
Campbell has urged his players to compete harder and play better before the game, but it wasn’t about in-game strategy.
“It just felt good to go out there and play a complete game,” Decker said. “Especially, you know, it’s a prime-time game again, everyone’s gonna be watching us. And then kinda like Dan said to us, we’re the exact same team. Today we played like we’re supposed to.”
And there you have it. Campbell is clearly an old-school throwback coach who wants his players to “give more effort” every time they take the field. He is going up against a defensive coordinator in Flores who changes his formations constantly in an effort to confuse his opponents.
This could result in an edge that allows the Vikings to have quite a bit of hope when Sunday’s game comes to a conclusion.
This and that
— The Bills are starting to roll after back-to-back victories over the Chiefs and Cowboys. The defense has stepped up in recent weeks, allowing 13.5 points per game against those two opponents. The Bills play the Chargers and Patriots before closing the season at Miami. If the Dolphins lose to the Cowboys or the Ravens, the season finale will be for the division title. Not many would have thought that it was possible when Buffalo fell to 6-6 after their loss to the Eagles.
— The Rams are the team nobody is talking about after winning for the fourth time in five games against the Washington Commanders. They are currently in the playoff structure as the No. 7 seed, and Matthew Stafford is healthy and playing well. He has a 13-2 TD-interception ratio over that five-game span, and they could be dangerous in the postseason.
— Don’t bet against the suddenly hot Tampa Bay Buccaneers winning the NFL South. They have reeled off three straight wins and are tied with the Saints for the NFC South lead. Their 34-20 victory at Green Bay in Week 15 was impressive. Yes, these Floridians won on the Frozen Tundra in December, and they did it thanks to Baker Mayfield. The quarterback was sensational, completing 22-of-28 passes for 381 yards with four TDs and no interceptions.
Mayfield has a 24-8 TD-interception ratio and is playing the best football of his professional career.
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