In the 2023 NCAA Tournament, the Florida Atlantic Owls shocked the world as they marched through March Madness all the way to the Final Four… an improbable run for a 9-seed that in their previous 29 seasons had made just one NCAA Tournament. And as is always the case after a notable Cinderella, the next year we're left to ask one simple question, “Who is the next team to do that?”
Various versions of this question have been asked over the last twenty-plus years of NCAA Tournament's. Who is the next George Mason? Who is the next Davidson? Who is the next VCU? Who is the next FGCU? Who is the next Loyola-Chicago? Who is the next UMBC? I'm positive I've missed some teams who have occupied the role of Cinderella because there's a Cinderella every year.
Now as you'll soon see, I'm not following the Florida Atlantic criteria to a T. FAU was a 3-loss mid-major that had won both their regular season and conference tournament titles. But this isn't how Cinderella always presents itself. Wichita State's Cinderella run in 2013 was plenty different from Saint Peter's run in 2022, as was Butler's run in 2010 compared to their run in 2011. I'm opting to look at this as an exercise in determining what teams that don't have a rich basketball history or track record of tournament success have the best chance to make an unexpected run to the Final Four. Conference affiliation, seed, and overall record are all secondary in my consideration.
Utah State (8 seed, Midwest Region)
Why they have a chance: Put simply, it's their stars. Two All-MWC 1st Team members in Great Osobor (the Mountain West Player of the Year) and Darius Brown, the Aggies super-Senior point guard who came to Utah State this year with 126 starts under his belt already. Together, this dynamic Aggies duo combines for 30 points, 13.5 rebounds and 9.5 assists per game.
Even though Utah State played not a single game of note in their non-conference schedule, the Aggies had to withstand a brutal Mountain West schedule — one which they went an impressive 14-4 in during the regular season. Sure, San Diego State put an end to Utah State's quest to win both the regular season and conference tournament title in the Mountain West Tournament semifinal, but I'm not deterred. Especially since Purdue will be waiting there for the Aggies in Round 2, ready to be upset again in the NCAA Tournament.
Drake (10 seed, East Region)
Why they have a chance: It may sound like an obvious statement, but when I'm trying to identify the teams that will go on to make unexpected deep runs in the tournament, the two things I look at first are, 1) How well do they shoot the ball, and B) Do they have experienced guards? Drake is top 40 in the nation in field goal percentage, three-point percentage, and free throw percentage, and they have a decent amount of experience — and balance — in their starting lineup.
The Bulldogs have four players on the roster who are scoring in double-figures, including Tucker DeVries, the two-time Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year who is averaging 21.8 points per game. Along with DeVries, the Bulldogs have experience in the starting lineup with Atin Wright, a fourth-year Junior who started 62 games at Cal State Northridge before transferring to Drake, and Darnell Brodie, a sixth-year senior forward who has started 114 games for Drake over the last four years.
Washington State's first trip to the Big Dance since 2008 is going to be a short one, but beating Iowa State in Round 2 will be a different story entirely for the Bulldogs.
Saint Mary's (5 seed, West Region)
Why they have a chance: The Gaels may not light up the scoreboard, but that's only because they methodically grind the game to a half. Per 100 possessions, Saint Mary's is the 15th most efficient offense in the country, and only Houston, Iowa State, and McNeese State (another very serious Cinderella candidate that may or may not be coming up soon) boast better defensive ratings than the Gaels. Saint Mary's is #1 in the country in rebounding percentage, meaning their opponents aren't getting second chance opportunities, and #5 in effective field goal percentage allowed, meaning their opponents weren't filling it up anyway.
I do worry about what happens if Saint Mary's plays a team that can dictate the pace. Do they have enough scoring to hang around in a game that is more up and down than they're comfortable with? Yes, all five Saint Mary's starters are double-digit scorers, but that doesn't necessarily mean they can keep up with the wrong sort of opponent. Even still, the fact that they are legitimately elite defensively gives me a sliver of hope that a long run could be in the Gaels future.
Grand Canyon (12 seed, West Region)
Why they have a chance: Before we go any further, yes, I'm aware that Grand Canyon and Saint Mary's play each other in the 1st Round. And yes, I'm aware that means one of my two Cinderella picks will be eliminated without a win under their belt. However, let me just go ahead and say this… whoever wins this Saint Mary's/Grand Canyon matchup will win in the Round of 32 and go on to play North Carolina in the Sweet Sixteen. Anyway…
As I mentioned yesterday in my Saturday morning Bracketology projections, Grand Canyon is the team I've pegged as a potential Cinderella ever since they upset San Diego State in early December. What I liked most about the performance against the Aztecs it wasn't sixth-year senior Tyon Grant-Foster — the WAC Player of the Year — who led the Lopes in scoring in this game. It was Rayshon Harrison, a junior who was second on the team in scoring, who scored 23 points and chipped in 8 rebounds to lead Grand Canyon to an upset win over the reigning National Championship runner-up.
The Antelopes get to the free throw line a ton, and they're one of the most mature teams in the field. There's not a single freshman among their top nine players in minutes per game, and that includes five seniors who play at least ten minutes per game.
Additionally, even though it's been 26 years since his memorable 1st round buzzer beater while playing for Valparaiso, I tend to believe that Bryce Drew still has some March Madness magic flowing through his veins.
McNeese State (12 seed, Midwest Region)
Why they have a chance: The Cowboys are making the NCAA Tournament for only the 2nd time this century, and for just the 3rd time in their program's 52 years, and yet it seems like McNeese State has already revealed itself as the annual trendy 12 over 5 upset pick. That's for good reason. Not only was Gonzaga overseeded in this Bracketologist's humble opinion, but I was prepared to take McNeese State over just about any other possible 5 seed in the field, regardless of who it was. It's like the Selection Committee was serving this one up on a silver platter for me.
Will Wade's squad has beat the breaks off of teams all year, and they're only one of a few teams who come into the tournament with 30 wins. Yes, McNeese State played an outrageously easy non-conference schedule and it's not as if the Southland Conference is a hotbed of college hoops, but this team still has all the makings of a dangerous Cinderella.
Learn the name Shahada Wells. And learn how to pronounce it while you're at it.
Florida Atlantic (8 seed, East Region)
Why they have a chance: Well, because they are Florida Atlantic. Think that's all I need to say, right?
And yes, the Connecticut fan in me is just a little uneasy with the idea of playing FAU in the 2nd Round.
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