The UConn Huskies begin their quest to be the first back-to-back National Champion since the 2006-2007 Florida Gators when they take on Stetson in the first round of March Madness. UConn dominated last year's NCAA Tournament, winning their six games by an average of 18.3 points. It is time to continue our March Madness odds series with a Stetson-UConn prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Stetson will be playing in their first NCAA tournament, after beating Austin Peay 94-91 in the Atlantic Sun title game. Jalen Blackmon will be the one for UConn to shut down, as he led the Hatters with 21.5 points per game. Stephan Swenson is their next option, averaging 13.8 points and 5.9 assists. Stetson finished third in the Atlantic Sun during the regular season but advanced through the tournament with a close 88-87 victory over Jacksonville in the semifinals.
UConn has been dominating this season, meaning they could conceivably walk through the tournament again. UConn tied for the most wins in college basketball with James Madison with 31. The Huskies easily won a Big East conference that was the second-best league in the nation, according to KenPom (despite only getting three teams in the NCAA Tournament). Then, UConn won their three tournament games by an average of 12.7 points to take home the tournament title. UConn didn't just dominate the Big East. They beat Indiana, Texas, North Carolina, and Gonzaga by at least ten points in non-conference play.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: Stetson-UConn Odds
Stetson: +26.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +3500
UConn: -26.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -20000
Over: 145.5 (-105)
Under: 145.5 (-115)
How to Watch March Madness
Time: 2:45 pm ET/11:45 am PT
TV: CBS
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Stetson Will Cover The Spread/Win
Stetson didn't have many opportunities to play against tournament teams this season. They played three Quad 1 games this season and escaped with a 1-2 record. It isn't a huge sample size, and UConn is a completely different animal, but Stetson only needs to cover a 26-point spread. UConn has much bigger aspirations than blowing out Stetson in the opening round, so the Huskies may take their foot off the gas and let the Hatters within the number.
A good way of staying within the number is by raining down three-pointers. Stetson has a three-point shooting percentage of 36.5%, which ranks 37th in the nation. The Hatters will be playing their toughest defensive opponent of the season, but they have shown three-point success.
Why UConn Will Cover The Spread/Win
UConn will need to dominate the Hatters on offense to cover the spread. The Huskies were the 30th-best team in scoring offense, averaging 81.5 points per game. They rank in the top 100 in every offensive category, and top 50 in most. Stetson has the worst adjusted defensive efficiency in the tournament field, and if UConn's offense gets rolling, this game could turn into a romp.
Final Stetson-UConn Prediction & Pick
Much has been made of No.16 seeds upsetting the No.1 after UMBC and Saint Peter's triumphs. It's unlikely that this will happen here, but the spread is large enough, and Stetson is good enough offensively to keep this game close for a while. There's a scenario here where we take the Huskies, Stetson keeps the deficit slightly under 26 points, then the Huskies rest their starters at the end, and the Huskie backers are left out in the cold.
Instead, let's look at the total in this game. Stetson is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country and has the potential to score plenty of points. UConn is among the best overall offenses, and Stetson has the worst defensive efficiency in the tournament field. If Stetson performs well enough against UConn's elite defense, expect the game to go over.
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Final Stetson-UConn Prediction & Pick: Over 145.5 (-110)
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