UFC Qatar: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker continues on the prelims with a fight between Tagir Ulanbekov and Kyoji Horiguchi in the flyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Ulanbekov-Horiguchi prediction and pick.
Tagir Ulanbekov (17-2) rides a four-fight winning streak, including unanimous decision victories over Azat Maksum and Clayton Carpenter. The Dagestani grappler continues to showcase wrestling control and opportunistic submissions as he comes into his fight this weekend against Kyoji Horiguchi.
Kyoji Horiguchi (34-5) returns to the Octagon after impressive back-to-back wins—a unanimous decision over Nkazimulo Zulu at Rizin 49 and a hard-fought decision against Sergio Pettis at Rizin 47. The veteran’s speed and experience still shine as he comes into his fight this weekend against Tagir Ulanbekov.
Here are the UFC Qatar Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Qatar odds: Tagir Ulanbekov-Kyoji Horiguchi odds
Tagir Ulanbekov: -192
Kyoji Horiguchi: +160
Over 2.5 rounds: -298
Under 2.5 rounds: +220
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Why Tagir Ulanbekov will win
- Last Fight: (W) Azat Maksum – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 9 (8 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Tagir Ulanbekov’s relentless wrestling and top control make him a dangerous matchup for Kyoji Horiguchi at UFC Qatar. Fresh off dominant wins over Jake Hadley and Nate Maness, Ulanbekov enters with full momentum and the confidence to grind out elite competition with his smothering grappling style.
Horiguchi is fast, but Ulanbekov thrives at closing distance and chaining takedown attempts until he drags opponents to the mat. There, his ability to maintain top position, advance, and threaten submissions forces foes onto the defensive, neutralizing their striking offense for prolonged stretches.
Ulanbekov’s fight IQ has grown with each UFC appearance, carefully managing risk on the feet and rarely giving up dominant position once he gets ahold of his opponent. Even against a veteran like Horiguchi, Tagir’s work rate and control can wear down more experienced fighters as the rounds progress.
If Ulanbekov imposes his game, Horiguchi will spend far more time defending than attacking—sapping his stamina and scoring favorably with judges. Expect Ulanbekov to secure takedowns in every round en route to a convincing decision win or a possible late submission at UFC Qatar.
Why Kyoji Horiguchi will win
- Last Fight: (W) Nkazimulo Zulu – DEC
- Last 5: 4-0, 1 NC
- Finishes: 20 (15 KO/TKO/5 SUB)
Kyoji Horiguchi’s veteran savvy and dynamic speed give him a real edge over Tagir Ulanbekov at UFC Qatar. Having just beaten Sergio Pettis and Nkazimulo Zulu, Horiguchi remains one of the quickest flyweights, using rapid entries and darting footwork to disrupt grapplers and frustrate opponents on the feet.
Horiguchi’s experience on the world stage is unmatched, having captured titles and outworked elite competition in multiple organizations. He’s faced powerful wrestlers before and knows how to circle away, create scrambles, and use angles to keep the fight upright and at his preferred striking range.
If Ulanbekov pursues his trademark takedowns, Horiguchi’s timing and discipline could turn those attempts into counter-striking opportunities. Horiguchi’s crisp boxing and well-timed kicks have proven fight-ending before, making any overzealous shot a risk for his opponent.
Expect the former Rizin and Bellator champ to leverage movement, volume, and high fight IQ to force Ulanbekov into a stand-up match he doesn’t favor. Horiguchi’s pace and creative offense should be enough for a clear decision or even a late stoppage on the big stage in Qatar.
Final Tagir Ulanbekov-Kyoji Horiguchi prediction & pick
Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Tagir Ulanbekov at UFC Qatar is a classic striker-versus-grappler matchup, pitting Horiguchi’s elite speed and championship experience against Ulanbekov’s relentless takedowns and smothering top control. Horiguchi, with wins over Sergio Pettis and Nkazimulo Zulu, remains one of the fastest and most creative flyweights on the world stage.
Early on, expect Horiguchi to use rapid movement and feints to keep Ulanbekov at range, landing counters and darting in with crisp combinations. Ulanbekov will look to close the distance and chain takedowns, seeking to drag the veteran into deeper waters on the mat, where his control can sap energy and limit offense.
If Horiguchi successfully stuffs early shots and establishes his jab, the fight will favor his striking output and experience, especially in later rounds as Ulanbekov tires. However, if Ulanbekov keeps Horiguchi grounded, his positional dominance will rack up points and frustrate the former Rizin champ’s rhythm.
This one likely comes down to whether Horiguchi can stay on his feet or if Ulanbekov chains together enough takedowns. Tagir Ulanbekov gets it done by decision, using his grappling to edge out a close contest in Qatar.
Final Tagir Ulanbekov-Kyoji Horiguchi Prediction & Pick: Tagir Ulanbekov (-192), Over 2.5 Rounds (-298)
