The UFC Qatar Main Card is finally here and we're set to bring you a betting prediction and pick for this last-minute bout in the Heavyweight Division. No. 6-ranked Waldo Cortes-Acosta will return to action on short notice to face No. 11 Shamil Gaziev of Bahrain. Check our UFC odds series for the Cortes-Acosta-Gaziev prediction and pick.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (15-2) has gone 8-2 inside the UFC since debuting in 2023. Cortes-Acosta bounced back with a big win over Ante Delija during his last bout, making this appearance on three-day notice just three weeks after his last fight. He'll look for another win as the likely favorite. Cortes-Acosta stands 6-foot-4 with a 70-inch reach.
Shamil Gaziev (14-1) has gone 3-1 inside the UFC since also debuting in 2023. Following a tough loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Gaziev won big over Don'Tale Mayes and Thomas Petersen in his last two bouts. This would be the biggest win of his career if he can come out the better fighter. Gaziev stands 6-foot-4 with a 78.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Qatar Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Qatar Odds: Waldo Cortes-Acosta-Shamil Gaziev Odds
Waldo Cortes-Acosta: -142
Shamil Gaziev: +120
Over 2.5 Rounds: -110
Under 2.5 Rounds: -120
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Why Waldo Cortes-Acosta Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Ante Delija – TKO (right cross, R1)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Waldo Cortes-Acosta made quick work of Ante Delija during his last fight as the slight +114 betting underdog, putting away his opponent with a barrage of strikes in the first round. Cortes-Acosta's striking was greatly undervalued during this fight and given his lack of damage sustained during the win, he's confident and ready to turn around and secure another win.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta lands 5.61 strikes per minute at a 48% clip, a number he can certainly improve upon, but equalizes it with his power on the feet. Once he's able to hurt his opponent, Cortes-Acosta is precise in finding follow-up shots to put the fight away. Against Delija, it only took a few short shots to wobble his opponent and get him on the back foot. Gaziev may be harder to put away, but Cortes-Acosta has shown a consistency to be accurate with his more powerful strikes.
During this fight, Cortes-Acosta should look to remain consistent with his pressure while continuing to make himself hard to hit in range. He's been very defensively-minded over the last few fights, so expect that same game plan to carry over into this one.
Why Shamil Gaziev Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Thomas Petersen – KO (right hook, R1)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Shamil Gaziev looked sharp once again in his last appearance, landing a perfect right hook to sleep Thomas Petersen as he held his hands down low. Gaziev is one of the more deceptive strikers in this division in the sense that he's much faster and powerful than opponents anticipate. He's also active with his kicking game and will be a threat to do so during this fight.
Shamil Gaziev does great work when striking to the body and is effective in getting his opponents to drop their hands. From there, he's able to mix up his striking combinations with his kicking game to all three levels. This is all to open up the main target for Gaziev which is the knockout.
On the ground, Gaziev can certainly hold his own and even owns a number of submission victories. However, with the slight disadvantage in height and Cortes-Acosta's takedown defense, Gaziev should expect to fight most of this bout on the feet and in range. He has his best chance to win from there if he's able to slip the punches and cause Cortes-Acosta to over-extend.
Final Waldo Cortes-Acosta-Shamil Gaziev Prediction & Pick
This should be a high-level striking matchup and despite Waldo Cortes-Acosta stepping in on just three-day notice, he should be in solid shape heading into this one given his last performance. Shamil Gaziev, on the other hand, will have to adjust to a new opponent with a much better striking skill set.
Shamil Gaziev is great at making opponents pay for their miscues and if Cortes-Acosta takes him lightly, Gaziev is bound to exploit the gaps in his game. However, Cortes-Acosta's last win should bode well for his confidence and was evidence enough that his striking has made massive improvements from what it already was.
For our final prediction, we'll roll with Waldo Cortes-Acosta to win this fight in a close decision. If he's able to land shots early, he could be able to finish this fight inside the distance, but Gaziev has only been knocked out once in his career and doesn't seem likely to fall here with a full training camp.
Final Waldo Cortes-Acosta-Shamil Gaziev Prediction & Pick: Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-142); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-110)
