Week 12 is kicking off on Thursday night with a clash of two 2024 AFC division winners. The Buffalo Bills will hit the road to visit the Houston Texans. We continue our NFL odds series with a Bills-Texans prediction and pick.
The Bills come into the game at 7-3 on the year, and are currently in second place in the AFC East. They are coming off a victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in which Josh Allen showed he belongs in the MVP conversation. He threw three touchdown passes while running for another three in the 44-32 victory over the Bucs.
Meanwhile, the Texans are 5-5 on the season, which places them in third place in the AFC South. The team has had to deal with multiple injuries, including not having Joe Mixon all season, and quarterback CJ Stroud missing the last two games with a concussion. The Texans have won two in a row with Davis Mills starting at quarterback.
NFL Betting Odds courtesy of DraftKings
Bills vs. Texans Odds
Buffalo Bills: -5.5 (-110)
Houston Texans: -5.5 (-110)
Over: 44.5 (-108)
Under: 44.5 (-112)
Bills vs. Texans Key Injuries
Bills: WR Mecole Hardman (out), TE Dalton Kincaid (out), WR Curtis Samuel (out), DT Phindarian Mathis (questionable)
Texans: LB Jamal Hill (out), DB Jalen Pitre (Out), QB CJ Stroud (Out)
Bills vs. Texans Betting Trends
– The Bills are 5-5 ATS this year. They have covered in four of the last five games.
– The Texans are 4-6 ATS this year. The team has covered in two of their last four games.
– The Bills are 2-2 ATS on the road, and 2-2 ATS as a road favorite. They are 3-5 ATS overall as a favorite.
– The Texans are 3-2 ATS at home, but have yet to be a home underdog. They are also 0-3 ATS as an underdog overall.
– The over has covered in five out of ten Bills games this year, but just one of four on the road.
– The over is just 3-6-1 in Texans games this year. It is also just 1-3-1 at home this season.
Keys to Bills vs. Texans
For the Bills to win and cover in this game, it starts with making Davis Mills beat them, with CJ Stroud out, and not the Texans' running game. The Texans have not been great on offense this year. They are currently 21st in the NFL in points per game while sitting 19th in yards per game. The team is 23rd in the run and 16th in the pass. Meanwhile, the Bills have been middle of the pack on defense. They are 14th in opponent points per game and 12th in opponent yards per game. They have struggled against the run, though, allowing 153 yards per game, 31st in the NFL. The team allows just 169.7 yards in the air, second in the NFL.
In the two games that Mills has started, the Texans have attempted to have a strong ground presence. They ran for 130 yards and two scores against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but struggled in a game against the Tennessee Titans in which the offense failed to do much. The Titans focused on the run game, holding the Texans to just 75 yards on 23 carries, good for 3.3 yards per carry. The Titans also forced Mills to throw 41 times, but for just 274 yards, after the ground game failed. If the Bills can deploy this game plan, it will stifle the Texans' offense and allow the Bills to control the game.
The Texans need to counter with a balanced attack. The team got out of balance last week and nearly were upset by the worst team in the NFL. When the Texans have had a balanced attack, they have generally succeeded.
Houston's defense does need to contain Josh Allen, though. The Bills' offense is fourth in the NFL in points per game and second in yards per game. They are first in the run while sitting eighth in the pass. Allen has passed for 2,456 yards this year, which is ninth in the NFL. He also has 18 touchdowns passing, which is tied for seventh. What has made Allen special has been his legs. He has run for 351 yards and ten touchdowns. When Allen has run for a touchdown this season, the Bills are 5-0. When he has not run for a score, they are just 2-3. If the Texans want to win this game, they have to contain Allen.
Bills vs. Texans Prediction and Pick
In general, on Thursday night football, favorites tend to win the game, but fail to cover the spread. Further, the under hits more often than the over on Thursday night. The Bills have been solid on Thursday night football in recent years, and have covered in five of their last eight Thursday night games, including five of six on the road.
Still, the Bills have been shaky overall in recent weeks. They have won just three of their last six games, including losing on the road to a bad Miami Dolphins team. They are coming off a win, but the Buccaneers still put up 32 points. The Mills-led offense is not great for Houston, but the defense is spectacular. This is going to be a defensive style of game. The best play is on the under, and while the Bills take the win, they will not cover.
Bills vs. Texans Pick: Texans +5.5 (-110) and Under 44.5 (-112)
