The Texas Rangers look to replicate their amazing season after they won the 2023 World Series. We're here to share our MLB odds series and make a Rangers over-under win-total prediction for the 2024 season.
The Rangers went 90-72 and carried that momentum to a World Series title. Now, they hope to run it back. Let's look at some of the players that had outstanding regular-season numbers.
Nathan Eovaldi led the rotation with a record of 12-5 and a 3.63 ERA over 25 starts. Likewise, Dane Dunning went 12-7 with a 3.70 ERA over 26 starts and 35 appearances. Corey Seager led the lineup with a .327 clip, 33 home runs, 96 RBIs, 88 runs, and an on-base percentage of .390 over 477 at-bats. Meanwhile, Adolis Garcia hit .245 with 39 home runs, 107 RBIs, 108 runs, and an on-base percentage of .328 over 555 at-bats. But the real surprise was Marcus Semien, who finished with a batting average of .276 with 29 home runs, 100 RBIs, and 122 runs over 670 at-bats.
The Rangers added two significant players in the offseason. First, they signed Tyler Mahle through free agency to help the rotation while both Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom recover from their respective injuries. They also signed Kirby Yates to help with a shaky bullpen that struggled throughout the regular season in 2023.
But they also lost reliever Will Smith to the Kansas City Royals. Also, they lost catcher Martin Perez to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Rangers also did not resign Aroldis Chapman or Jordan Montgomery. Moreover, they also allowed catcher Mitch Garver to go to the Seattle Mariners.
Here are the Win Total MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Rangers 2024 Win Total Odds
Over 88.5 Wins: -108
Under 88.5 Wins: -112
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Why The Rangers Will Win 88.5 Games
Seager, Garcia, and Semien make this team go around. Amazingly, Seager had a career-high OPS of 1,013 last season. He also finally learned how to hit breaking balls. Now, he is even tougher to get out. Semien tied the American League record for RBIs when batting at the top of the lineup. Additionally, he finally avoided any serious injuries. Garcia continues to smash home runs and drive runners home. In fact, he has 66 home runs and 208 RBIs over two seasons. Catcher Jonah Heim looks to get even better. Last season, he finished with a batting average of .258, 18 home runs, 95 RBIs, 61 runs and an on-base percentage of .317.
The rotation is still above average, but it will be even better when deGrom and Scherzer return. In the meantime, Eovaldi and Dunning will hold the line when they make their starts. The Rangers have two bonafide aces who they believe can carry them to 90 wins again.
The Rangers will win 89 games because they have one of the most loaded lineups in baseball. Additionally, they have two aces that will carry them until Scherzer and deGrom return.
Why The Rangers Won't Win 88.5 Games
While the first two starters are elite, there are some other questions in the rotation. Jon Gray and Andrew Heaney were not terrible. However, they still were not amazing either. Gray went 9-8 with a 4.12 ERA, while Heaney went 10-6 with a 4.16 ERA. Both of them need to do better to keep the Rangers afloat. Unfortunately, lasting 4.3 innings will not help this team, especially that bullpen.
The bullpen did well in the postseason, but based on everything that went down during the regular season, they are still bad. Can anyone really trust Jose Leclerc? He went 0-2 with a 2.68 ERA with four saves over 57 games. Meanwhile, Josh Sborz has a 5.78 ERA over the past two seasons. But his 31-percent strikeout rate is somewhat encouraging. Left-handed reliever Brock Burke looked strong at one point. Then, he floundered down the stretch. Burke went 5-3 with a 4.37 ERA over 53 appearances.
Nathaniel Lowe was not bad. However, his numbers dipped. His batting average fell from .302 to .262, and his home runs decreased by 10. Is this a sign of things to come? Or is it just a bad season? The Rangers will soon find out.
The Rangers will not win 89 games because their bullpen will do everything in its power to blow games. Also, their rotation is partially elite and partially inconsistent. We also don't know if Scherzer or deGrom will be the same high-quality pitchers.
Final Rangers Over/Under Win Total Prediction
The Rangers are the World Series champions and are currently on Cloud 9. However, the new season is fast approaching, and all that goodwill will go out the window if they struggle out of the gate. The good news is that they play in the same division as the Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels, which should help their win total. But the Rangers also have a lot of talent and depth. They proved that last year when they won it all. Expect the Rangers to go 91-71.
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Final Rangers Over/Under Win Total Prediction: Over 88.5 Wins: -108
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