Texas State will look for new life after a disappointing 2022 season, with a new coach and new life. We are here to look at our college football odds series while making a Texas State over-under prediction and pick for the 2023 campaign.

The Texas State Bobcats went 4-8 in 2022, with a 2-6 mark in the Sun Belt Conference, in 2023. Unfortunately, it cost their head coach their job. Their season started with a 38-14 defeat at the hands of Nevada. Then, they bounced back with a 41-12 victory over FIU. The Bobcats fell 42-7 in the following week against Baylor. However, they shut out Houston Christian 34-0 in the following weekend. Texas State lost to James Madison 40-13. Then, they defeated Appalachian State 36-24.

But a massive losing streak followed. First, they fell 17-14 in a nailbiter against Troy. They followed this performance with a 20-14 loss against Southern Miss. Consequently, they suffered another close loss, this time falling 31-30 on the road to Louisiana Monroe. The Bobcats lost 38-21 on the road against Southern Alabama. Finally, they ended their slump with a 16-13 victory over Arkansas State. They ended their season with a 41-13 defeat at the hands of Louisiana.

Texas State brought in GJ Kinne to bring new life into the program. Significantly, the former NFL player has also had coaching stints at Hawaii, UCF, and Incarnate Word. Look for him to create a significant change to the culture as Texas State attempts to rebound from a poor showing.

Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Over/Under Win Totals

Over 4.5 wins: -150

Under 4.5 wins: +122

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Why Texas State Can Win 4.5 Games

It was not all bad for the Bobcats. No, there was good production in certain spots on the team. Texas Tech hopes it can keep the momentum going from some of their positions while improving other aspects of the team.

The running game worked wonders, averaging 215 yards per game. Now, the goal is to keep everything going in the right direction. Lincoln Pare played well, rushing for 772 yards and five touchdowns. Additionally, he has some help in the backfield, as Domerio Davenport can make some headway in a talented backfield.

The receiving core still has some promise, with exceeded expectations. Now, we will see what Ashtyn Hawkins can do after he caught 56 passes for seven scores in nine games. Hawkins will attempt to stay healthy as he enters another season with optimism.

The defense got a boost when defensive end Bryce Cage came over through the transfer portal. Significantly, Cage has 5.5 sacks through 16 games and will look to create some positive results for his new team. Linebacker Jordan Revels played well in 2022, with 69 tackles and 4.5 sacks. Furthermore, he was a menace all over the field and will be someone to watch once again. Safety Tory Spears is dangerous in the secondary. Thus, he made an impact with 77 tackles in 2022.

Texas State will win five games because they have the talent to succeed without question. Likewise, they will turn their bad luck around.

Why Texas State Can Not Win 4.5 Games 

The bad luck is what brought them down last season. Unfortunately, they just could not win the close games. Three of their four losses during the losing streak were by one score. Therefore, they must figure out how to close games out.

Malik Hornsby is their quarterback. Ultimately, he transfers over from Alabama, and there will be questions about his production value. TJ Finley is also around, having come from Auburn. Substantially, the most important questions are at quarterback. Can either of these guys be the answer for a team that struggles to put teams away? The Bobcats must quickly figure out the answer to this question fast.

These quarterbacks will have to pass the ball behind a retooled offensive line. Thus, there are multiple questions about their capabilities and how quickly they can gel and open holes. There will be pressure to open the lanes for the running backs while simultaneously protecting their quarterback. Additionally, they must recover from the loss of offensive tackle Dalton Cooper.

Texas State will not win five games because they have numerous questions at the most important position in football. Furthermore, their line will struggle to gel.

Final Texas State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick

If Texas State won one of the three close games they lost during the losing streak, they would have finished with five wins. Thus, do not expect that to happen again. We are not saying Texas State is going to improve by a large margin. However, they will cover the over-under.

Final Texas State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 4.5 wins: -150