The Texas State Bobcats take on the Baylor Bears. Check out our college football odds series for our Texas State Baylor prediction and pick. Find how to watch Texas State Baylor.

The Big 12 Conference is up for grabs this year. Not only are four new schools entering the conference, but Texas and Oklahoma are not the elite football schools they previously were. There used to be a time when the Texas-Oklahoma game was regularly a matchup of the two best teams in the Big 12. The winner was almost certain to win the conference championship or at least make the conference championship game. Last year, neither Texas nor Oklahoma made the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma is adjusting to life after Lincoln Riley, while Texas hasn't won the Big 12 title since the 2009 season, when it advanced to the BCS National Championship Game. There is a power vacuum atop the Big 12, which means that any of several teams can potentially make the conference championship game. We could have a Big 12 title game like last year's edition. No one predicted Kansas State to play TCU in the Big 12 title game before the 2022 college football season began. This year's matchup could be similarly improbable.

The Baylor Bears hope they can take advantage of the instability in the conference.

Baylor did not have a good season last year, but head coach Dave Aranda — who has won a Big 12 title (2021) and a Sugar Bowl at Baylor — is one of the best defensive coaches in the business. As long as he can get enough production from his offense, Baylor could be particularly formidable in the Big 12 race. The Bears begin their season against in-state foe Texas State.

Here are the Texas State-Baylor College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

College Football Odds: Texas State-Baylor Odds

Texas State Bobcats: +27.5 (-108)

Baylor Bears: -27.5 (-112)

Over: 59.5 (-108)

Under: 59.5 (-112)

How To Watch Texas State vs. Baylor

TV: Big 12 Network

Stream: ESPN Plus

Time: 7:00 p.m. ET/4:00 p.m. PT

*Watch Texas State vs Baylor LIVE on fuboTV (click for free trial)*

Why Texas State Could Cover the Spread

The Baylor offense profoundly struggled last season. Baylor could have scored some very significant upset wins, but its offense just wasn't consistent enough to do the job. Dave Aranda is an excellent defensive coach, but he doesn't put the same level of attention to detail into his offenses or into his transfer portal recruiting processes. The transfer portal has not improved Baylor's level of offensive talent to the level the Bears need if they want to contend for the Big 12. Texas State just has to lose this game by fewer than 28 points, and it will cover the spread. Given the many struggles of the Baylor offense last year, it is reasonable to think that in the first game of the new season, there will be rust and rough edges and enough limitations from the BU offense that Texas State can keep this game relatively close.

Why Baylor Could Cover the Spread

The Baylor Bears don't need an amazing offensive performance to cover the spread in this game. They could win 31-3 or 34-6 or 35-7, and those scores would all be enough to cover the spread. A Dave Aranda-coached Baylor defense is likely to put the clamps down on Texas State. The Bobcats are not going to have good answers for what Aranda throws at them. Baylor's defense is physically ready to dominate in this game, and if the Bears completely own the line of scrimmage, Texas State won't have any chance whatsoever. The game could devolve into a 40-point wipeout.

Final Texas State-Baylor Prediction & Pick

The Baylor offense faces a lot of questions, but the Baylor defense is really good. That sets up well for the under in this game.

Final Texas State-Baylor Prediction & Pick: Under 59.5