Texas State looks for their first-ever bowl win as they face Rice in the First Responder Bowl. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a First Responder Bowl Texas State-Rice prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

The First Responder Bowl was originally named the TicketCity Bowl in 2011 when it played its first game. It has changed names and sponsors over the years but has been the First Responder Bowl since 2018. That year, the game was declared a no-contest, as it was canceled due to bad weather. Rice and Texas State will both be playing in this game for the first time, and it will be the first time this game, played in Dallas, will feature two teams both from the state of Texas.

Texas State has never made a bowl game before. Since making the jump to the FBS level, they have had just two non-losing seasons. In 2013, they were 6-6 and in 2014, they were 7-5, but did not receive bowl invites either year. Since then, the most games they had won in a year was four. This year, they started strong, first with an upset of Baylor in week one. After a loss to UTSA, they would win the next three. They would end up going 4-4 in conference play and finishing second in their division, just behind Troy.

Meanwhile, Rice is in a bowl for the second year in a row. Last year they lost the Lending Tree Bowl. With a win, Rice will have their first winning season since 2014, when they capped the year with a win in the Hawaii Bowl. This year, Rice is 6-6. they opened the year with a loss to Texas but rebounded to upset Houston. They would end up going 4-4 in American Conference play, and finish seventh in the conference.

Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

First Responder Bowl Odds: Texas State-Rice Odds

Texas State: -5.5 (-110)

Rice: +5.5 (-110)

Over: 59.5 (-105)

Under: 59.5 (-115)

How to Watch Texas State vs. Rice

Time: 5:30 PM ET/ 2:30 PM PT

TV: ESPN

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Texas State Will Cover The Spread

Texas State comes in ranked 26th in the nation in points per game this year while sitting 16th in yards per game. They boast the 15th-best rushing attack in the nation while sitting 22nd in the past. T.J. Finley leads this passing attack for Texas State. He completed 265 of 387 passes this year for 3,288 yards and 24 touchdowns. In his last four games, he threw 12 touchdown passes. Meanwhile, he has just eight interceptions on the year, with just 13 turnover-worthy throws. For the most part, he protected the ball. Six of the 13 turnover-worthy throws came in one game.

Finely also ran well. He ran for 216 yards this year, not adjusted for sack yardage, while also scoring five times this year. The running attack is led by Ismail Mahdi. He comes into the game with 1,196 yards this year on just 197 attempts. He averaged over six yards per carry while being a beast after contact. After the first contact, Mahdi ran for 713 yards this year. Further, he scored ten times in the year. Mahdi also fumbled just three times this year and has not in his last five weeks. In that time, he was over 95 yards in four of the games.

The receiving game has two studs. The first is Joey Hobert. He comes into the game with 847 yards and eight scores. He was great after the catch and in contest situations too. Still, he missed the last game due to injury and may not play in this one. Still,  Texas State has Ashtyn Hawkins. He has 835 yards this year and three scores. Also, expected to step up, is Kole Wilson. Wilson brought in 683 yards on the year and scored eight times as well.

The defense for Texas State struggled this year. They were 115th in the nation in points allowed, while sitting 100th in yards allowed per game. They sat 78th against the run, but 106th against the pass. Still, Ben Bell can make an impact in this game. He led the team with seven sacks on the year while having 47 pressures on the quarterback. He also had 32 stops for offensive failures in the running game and forced a fumble as well.

Why Rice Will Cover The Spread

Rice comes into the game ranked 58th in the nation in points scored. They were 76th in yards per game while sitting 118th in the rush but 35th in the pass. Still, there is a major hole in this offense now. JT Daniels led this offense all year. he passed for 2,432 yards and 21 touchdowns this year for Rice, after coming in from West Virginia, with stops at Georgia and USC before that. He has medically retired though and will not play another snap of football. AJ Padgett will most likely take over. He started the last three games of the year, and one the year threw for 626 yards with a 63.5 percent completion rate with seven scores. Still, he threw three interceptions and nine turnover-worthy passes in his time.

The run game will rely on Dean Connors. Connors come in with 730 yards on the year and five scores. He has to do a lot of his work after first contact as well. He averaged 4.62 yards per carry after his first contact this year. Helping him out in the backfield will be Juma Otoviano, who has 311 yards and four scores this year. The receiving game is more of a man-man show. While Connors is second on the team with 395 yards and three scores, he is nowhere near the top man. That is Luke McCaffery. McCaffery enters the game with 963 yards on 68 receptions with 12 touchdowns this year.

The Rice defense comes in ranked 75th in the nation in points allowed per game. They were 67th in yards allowed per game while sitting 74th against the run and 61st against the pass. They will be looking for Coleman Coco to continue to be a force on the defensive line. He led the team with five sacks this year while having 24 quarterback hurries. Further, he has 24 stops for offensive failures in the run game.

Final Texas State-Rice Prediction & Pick

This game will hinge on one player. Texas State has a bad defense, and they struggle against quick plays. If Luke McCaffery can find open space, he will be able to get into the open field and have a great game. Do not be surprised to see him in the wildcat either in this one. With Daniels gone, Rice could struggle to move the ball, but the Texas State offense will not be able to stop McCaffery or score enough to pull away in this one.

Final Texas State-Rice Prediction & Pick: Rice +5.5 (-110)