As the 2024 NBA playoffs approach, the Minnesota Timberwolves find themselves in a much better situation compared to a year ago. Leading into last season’s playoffs, the Wolves were clawing, crawling and even punching to get into the playoffs. Battling their way in through the play-in, Minnesota was destined for failure in a first -ound matchup with the eventual-champion Denver Nuggets. Fast forward to today, and the Timberwolves appear to be a fearsome force heading into the postseason.
With a tight race in the Western Conference for the No. 1 seed and congestion between the 6-10 seeds, a wide variety of potential seeding scenarios and playoff matchups exist for the first round and beyond. Let’s evaluate some of the more advantageous playoff matchups for the Timberwolves including dream seeding scenarios.
Timberwolves’ pursuit of No. 1 seed
While playoff matchups come down to much more than regular-season standings, the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference is still worth fighting for. Of course, the top spot would come along with home-court advantage all throughout playoffs. Behind the Timberwolves’ great success so far this season has been a noticeable improvement in the environment at Target Center. Starting each series at home for the first two games could give the Wolves an edge early on. For longer series, a potential Game 7 at home is far preferable to a win-or-go-home game on the road.
In addition to landing home-court advantage, locking in that top seed has its matchup advantages as well. The race for No. 1 has turned into a three-team race. Minnesota has a lot to gain if they find a way to grab the best record in the conference. While the Wolves don’t fear the Nuggets or Oklahoma City Thunder, it would be best to avoid having to beat both of them if possible. Tuesday's tough loss to Denver doesn't help, but the 47-22 Wolves are still just a game back of their competition for the top spot.
If Minnesota managed to clinch the No. 1 seed, Denver and OKC would likely finish second and third in either order. The second-round of the playoffs would become an absolute bloodbath between the Nuggets and Thunder. Minnesota would completely evade that horrendous second-round battle and likely face one of the New Orleans Pelicans or Los Angeles Clippers. While those matchups aren’t perfect for the Wolves, avoiding the most recent Finals MVP in Nikola Jokic and All-NBA First Team lock Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would be beneficial for Minnesota’s aspirations of a deep playoff run.
Facing lower-bracketed play-in teams
Part of the beauty in landing the top spot in the West would be a matchup with teams having to play extra games to even make the playoffs. Facing an 8-seed in round one would greatly help the Timberwolves in getting through to the next round with a quick series. The Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors have flip-flopped between ninth and 10th-place all season long, so it's likely just one of them will be competing for the 8-seed while the other watches from home after losing a star-studded play-in opener.
While Stephen Curry and LeBron James are all-time NBA greats, the Timberwolves should really love their odds against Los Angeles and Golden State in a potential matchup. Back in November, the Wolves, ironically, put the season series with the Warriors in a chokehold. Winning back-to-back games against Golden State on the road, Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and company showed no fear of the NBA’s most recent dynasty. The Wolves are well-equipped to punish Golden State’s small-ball by winning with size, rebounding, rim pressure and the NBA’s best defense.
The Lakers are a more conventional matchup for Minnesota. Another team built with length and size, the present-day Timberwolves can match the purple-and-gold's physicality, rebounding and shot-making when healthy. Their last matchup showed how important Gobert can be for a series with the Lakers as Anthony Davis dropped a ridiculous 2o-point and 20-rebound game in the Stifle Tower’s absence. Despite this most recent defeat, Minnesota has shown all season long to be the better team. Two home wins against Los Angeles in December and a far-superior record paint the Wolves as a tough team to beat for the Lakers.
Battling the top-heavy Phoenix Suns
The Phoenix Suns are loaded with top-end talent. Names like Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal can be intimidating for a possible first-round matchup. However, Phoenix’s lack of reliable size, depth limitations and Minnesota’s bevy of perimeter defenders make the Suns the best first-round matchup for the Timberwolves.
Minnesotas’ defense is fueled by elite ball containment and even better rim protection and deterrence. Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Edwards would have a fun task ahead of them in taking the Suns’ Big Three down in convincing fashion. McDaniels is one of the few players in the league who can actually matchup with Durant on a size, length and speed basis. His presence allows the Timberwolves to live one-on-one more than most other teams could with KD.
This potential matchup is reminiscent of the 2022 playoffs, when the second-seeded Boston Celtics dismantled Durant, Kyrie Irving and the Brooklyn Nets in just four games. The Celtics, who were built flush with good point-of-attack defenders, bullied Durant into some of the worst playoff games of his career, including a barrage of high-turnover efforts. The Timberwolves offer the same challenges to Phoenix’s eerily similar roster construction.
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