Every year there are NBA players that seem like sure things in fantasy basketball, only to later break your heart (and possibly bank) due to a variety of reasons. Sometimes there are tea leaves that can be read to help you steer clear of these heart-breakers.

There are other times, however, where even the most advanced, in-the-know experts get it wrong when it comes to picking the right players. I’m here to try my best to help you avoid these players in your drafts and even down the road in other fantasy transactions.

Warning- I will be wrong on some, that is about the only thing that feels certain when it comes to fantasy sports.

timberwolves

Without further ado, here is a top five (plus a bonus) ranking of players I just can’t get behind for a variety of reasons heading into the 2018-2019 season.

Bonus pick- Joel Embid, Philadelphia 76ers

This one was tough. On one hand, Embid could easily finish as a top five fantasy asset at season’s end. Embid could also succumb to injury early on and wreck your season before you ever had a real chance to compete. With his ADP slowly creeping toward the first round, the injury risk with Embid is just too high for my liking. If you can grab him in the mid-to-late second round, you have my blessings.

On to the list.

5. Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors

kevin durant

Make no mistake about it, Kevin Durant is one of the top two basketball players in the world. He is an undeniable talent that is still smack-dab in his prime. When it comes to fantasy, Durant is a risky proposition though. Being drafted fifth overall on average, Durant needs a few things to break his way to return proper value. Durant hasn’t played more than 72 games in a season since 2014. He also has to share his usage wit three other All-NBA caliber players limiting his ceiling. Let someone else overpay for him.

4. Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzles

Gasol is a 7’0 center who is coming off of injury and will be 34 years old a few months into the 2018-2019 season. If that isn’t reason enough to let someone else reach for him ahead of players such as Al Horford and DeAndre Jordan, remember that Gasol plays on one of the slowest paced teams in the league. There is no questioning that Gasol is an excellent player, there is just better options at the spot he is currently being drafted.

jimmy butler

3. Jimmy Butler, Minnesota Timberwolves

Word has just come out that Butler has requested a trade out of Minnesota immediately. This is on the heels of training camp and the season being less than a month away from beginning. Depending on if and when his request is granted, it will take Butler some time to adjust to his new team. That doesn’t even factor in a few landing spots that could hinder his usage rate. With all the uncertainty around Butler at the moment, he is an easy pass.

2. Victor Oladipo, Indiana Pacers

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The reigning most improved player of the N.B.A., Oladipo went from borderline bust to bonafide star in his inaugural season in Indiana. The 6’4 do-it-all combo guard broke away from Russell Westbrook and blossomed into a true two-way stud.

He averaged a career-high in scoring (23.1), rebounds (5.2) and assists (4.6) while leading the Pacers to a surprise fifth-seed. He is now being drafted ahead of players such as John Wall, Chris Paul and Kyrie Irving and that is not something I can get behind. While he’s been a great story, there is major regression risk with Oladipo. Too much, in fact, for my liking.

Lonzo Ball

1. Lonzo Ball, Los Angeles Lakers

Being drafted 50th overall on average, Ball can easily be marketed as a sleeper or a potential bust. I prefer the latter. After underwhelming in his first season, Ball now has to compete with the biggest usage-hog in the game , LeBron James.

No matter what is said from the Lakers, the ball is going to be in James hands the majority of the time. That drastically limits Ball’s chances for the peripheral stats that he will need to even come close to returning value. He shooting definitely will not get him there. Don’t take the plunge.