In the past two years, Tua Tagovailoa has been quite disappointing. The fifth overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft has not proven to be the Miami Dolphins' franchise guy and his fantasy football stock is much worse. He is in for a massive year three, but whether that is good or bad is up to him.
The Dolphins made one of the biggest moves of the offseason by trading for Tyreek Hill, one of the best wide receivers in the game and, apparently, a massive fan of Tua's. His speed and elusiveness will unlock another level for the offense as both a downfield threat and someone who can break off big gains with short routes.
Hill was one of several additions Miami made to its offense along with star tackle Terron Armstead, running backs Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert and wide receiver Cedrick Wilson Jr. The Dolphins put as much talent around their young quarterback as possible. For this reason, it is truly time to put up or shut up for the former Alabama star in the 2022 season.
Although Tagovailoa and the Dolphins should improve this season, fantasy football managers may not have much faith in the third-year quarterback. Is Tua a worthwhile risk to take in the 2022 fantasy football season? There is a case to be made that he is.
Tua Tagovailoa 2022 Fantasy Football outlook
The last two seasons have not given much confidence that Tua Tagovailoa is on a trajectory towards stardom. In 13 games last season, Tagovailoa compiled 2,653 yards, 16 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions and a completion percentage of 67.8 percent.
Turnover proneness has plagued Tagovailoa and makes him a very shaky fantasy football prospect. At the moment, he does not look at all like a QB1 and in many leagues may not even be worth a roster spot. His fantasy value derives from the idea of what the new-look supporting cast around him can help him do and the improvements he can make, both of which carry some optimism.
Miami put Tua in a great spot when it went to play-action and RPO sets. Building off of these concepts with him should allow him to produce better. The personnel around him is built to do that while also keeping defenses honest in the deep passing game tanks to both Hill and Jaylen Waddle. A big target in tight-end Mike Gesicki also helps, as does Wilson as another solid target.
But the Dolphins don't have to become a home-run factory. In fact, building upon tendencies from a West Coast-style offense is just the way to go. Tagovailoa's phenomenal accuracy on short passes will work magnificently with Hill, who embarrasses defenders. Tagovailoa has enough arm accuracy to make plays downfield, though not every single throw in the book. There are legitimate reasons to expect a jump, even a sizable one, now that Tua has a very solid supporting cast around him.
Of course, all the talent in the world can't cover up a quarterback's ability to read the field and make the right throws. For someone who doesn't have a super strong arm, this is tougher to pull off. But Tagovailoa still has the capacity to improve and has a skill set that works perfectly with his new WR1. While Hill most likely won't be scoring on the long-ball plays he created with Patrick Mahomes, he will be a highly-used weapon that could be in for a massive year. His young QB will be the chief beneficiary.
If you like to live dangerously, Tagovailoa could be a fringe QB1 thanks to all the resources Miami is putting around him and the possibility that it brings out the best in him. A new offensive-minded coach, one of the most explosive wideouts in the game, several other solid weapons and an improved offensive line could help him enjoy a breakout campaign. If opponents in your league like to take quarterbacks early in the draft, leaving you with some unsavory QB1 options, Tagovailoa is worth taking as a high-upside backup.
Tagovailoa has all the resources he needs to become a top-20 quarterback both in real and fantasy football. The boom-or-bust opportunity puts some legitimate excitement around him that is covered up by his poor production and interception numbers. He will undoubtedly have to work on that for him to reach his true potential with Miami. Even if he doesn't make a big gain, he could start to establish himself as a solid backup option to pick up in the later rounds of the draft.
The trick with the Dolphins QB is that his upside lacks concrete evidence. All the parts are there but can he put them together? Tua Tagovailoa has the potential to be one of the most pleasant surprises in the 2022 season. Fantasy football managers should take note and keep him in mind when draft day rolls around.
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