The Minnesota Twins (27-26) visit the Houston Astros (31-21) for a Memorial Day matchup! First pitch commences at 4:10 p.m. ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Twins-Astros prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Here are the Twins-Astros MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Twins-Astros Odds
Minnesota Twins: +1.5 (-192)
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+158)
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (-110)
How To Watch Twins vs. Astros
TV: MLB Network, Bally Sports, ATTSN Southwest
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET/ 1:10 p.m. PT
*See how to watch Twins-Astros LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 3-7 (First in the AL Central)
Run Line Record: 27-26 (51%)
Over Record: 22-28-3 (44%)
Minnesota sits just a single game over .500 and only one game up on the second-place Tigers. While the Twins benefit from playing in the worst division in baseball, they may be even better than their record suggests. Their +42 run differential is solid – ranking fourth in the American League and sixth across all of baseball. Additionally, they already proved capable of beating the Astros this season after they took 2/3 from them in early April. Consequently, the Twins need to sure up their offense and get another strong start from Sonny Gray if they want to cover as road underdogs.
Veteran Sonny Gray (4-0) makes his 11th start of the season for the Twins tonight. After a stellar first season in Minnesota last year, Gray looks even better so far in 2023. Through 10 starts he holds a 1.82 ERA ad 1.20 WHIP. His 10.9 K/9 would mark the second-highest rate of his career only behind the shortened 2020 season. Furthermore, Gray's 2.7 WAR already surpassed last year's 2.3 mark that he achieved in 24 starts. By all accounts, Gray has been an ace this year.
Still, he regressed somewhat in May after an incredible opening month in which he held a 0.77 ERA and collected all four of his wins. Over his last four outings, Gray hasn't lasted longer than 5.1 innings and holds a 3.72 ERA. The team is 0-4 over that span. Still, Gray output arguably his best start of the season in an early date with the Astros. In seven innings against Houston on April 7th, Gray allowed just a single run on four hits while striking out 13. Despite a rough matchup on paper, a rematch with Houston may be just what the veteran needs to get back on track.
Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 8-2 (Second in the AL West)
Run Line Record: 27-25 (52%)
Over Record: 25-26-1 (49%)
After an up-and-down opening month, the defending champs have looked back and better than ever in May. With a 16-8 record this most, the Astros surged up the standings and now sit just two games back of the red-hot Rangers. That said, Houston continues to struggle offensively – ranking just 17th in runs and 22nd in OPS. They've been carried by an incredible effort from their pitching staff that leads the majors in ERA and ranks second in WHIP. However, with a rookie on the bump facing a Twins starter who blanked them earlier in the year, Houston has to get something out of their offense if they want to cover as home favorites.
28-year-old rookie JP France (1-1) makes his fifth career start for Houston tonight. France has been a strong addition to Houston's rotation with stellar outings in 3/4 starts. He kicked his career off in style with five innings of shutout baseball against the Mariners before allowing just a single run in 6.2 innings against the White Sox. Although the Cubs rocked France in his third outing, he bounced back in his most recent start. Despite being awarded the loss against Milwaukee, France pitched well – allowing just a single earned run while striking out eight in 5.2 innings.
He now gets an intriguing matchup against a hit-or-miss Twins lineup. The Twins rank 16th in the league in runs despite holding the 24th-best batting average. However, Minnesota utilizes the long ball early and often – ranking seventh in home run rate. Considering France allowed five home runs in his four starts, he needs to limit Minnesota's power if the Astros want to cover.
Although Sonny Gray shut them down in an early meeting, that was without second baseman Jose Altuve. Altuve's strong bat was missed for the entirety of his absence but particularly against Gray. The former MVP has torn Gray up throughout their careers. In 34 lifetime at-bats, Altuve holds a .353 average against Gray. Although this will be just his eighth game back, Altuve hasn't missed a beat since returning – batting .370 with four walks and a home run.
Final Twins-Astros Prediction & Pick
Despite how well Gray pitched against Houston earlier in the year, the defending champs look much sharper of late and should exploit his recent mishaps.
Final Twins-Astros Prediction & Pick: Houston Astros -1.5 (+158)