Does Tyreek Hill's move to the Miami Dolphins pull down his fantasy value?

For the first time in five years, Tyreek Hill begins his sixth season in the NFL with a new team and a new quarterback. Keep in mind that earlier this year, Hill was dealt to the Miami Dolphins. The switch from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa means Hill will need time to acclimate. He starts the fantasy football season with some uncertainty and unknowns for the first time in a long time.

Tyreek Hill was among the elite wide receivers in 2021. He recorded career highs in catches, targets, and first downs, but his yards per catch average dropped to its lowest level since his rookie season. This was mostly caused by teams using shell coverage to stop the explosive plays of the Kansas City Chiefs.

In fantasy sports, Hill is the quintessential boom-or-bust athlete. He had four games with 25 points last year, but at the same time, he also had four games with just 10 points. This is mostly because other teams focus much of their defensive game plan on stopping Hill. That likely won't change this coming season. Even if he's on a new team, Hill still commands a lot of defensive attention.

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Tyreek Hill 2022 Fantasy Football Outlook

When Hill was sent to Miami, he wanted to get a hefty paycheck that the Chiefs just could not match.

Speaking of the Dolphins, Hill joins a squad that has a couple of young guys who will play major roles. Those are Tua Tagovailoa, a third-year quarterback, and Jaylen Waddle, a second-year wide receiver. Additionally the Dolphins acquired two running backs — Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert — to bolster their running game. Miami also added linemen Terron Armstead and Connor Williams to strengthen an offensive line that allowed 40 sacks in 2021.

Former San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel has also been brought in as the Dolphins' new head coach. He brings a run-heavy scheme to Miami, which may initially not bode well for Hill's fantasy value.

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In 2021, the Dolphins were a speedy run-pass option passing club, but McDaniel's preferred play style will change that substantially. Deebo Samuel, who McDaniel occasionally utilized as a running back in San Francisco, has a similar skill-set with Hill, so the latter may actually get more touches this season. Recall that early in his career, Hill actually did well as a runner from the backfield, too.

Having said that, Hill's new quarterback will determine much of his fantasy value . Tagovailoa's growth and willingness as a downfield passer will be crucial in leveraging Hill's skills.

On paper, it seems that Hill doesn't appear to match with Tagovailoa, who had the lowest yards per attempt in the league in 2021. Still, remember that before the Kansas City Chiefs selected Hill in 2016, people saw erstwhile QB Alex Smith as a cautious passer. Perhaps having Hill will actually push Tagovailoa to be a more confident passer from the pocket.

Another interesting aspect to look at is how Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill will divide targets this coming season. Waddle led all rookies in catches in 2021. Tagovailoa will have to choose which WR he will prioritize moving forward.

Taking all these into consideration, Hill should remain the best fantasy receiver across all leagues. He has averaged more than 17.0 PPR points per game over the last four seasons. That includes two consecutive campaigns, but it's difficult to predict that he will continue this trend. Keep in mind, though, that he only had one season in his career with fewer than 15.0 PPR points per game, which was in 2016. The chances of that happening again are quite low.

Experts expect that Tyreek Hill will surpass 135 targets this coming season, as he has in three of the last four seasons. He should get along well with Waddle and will probably like the inventiveness of Mike McDaniel's scheme. With the Dolphins in 2022, Hill should be alright as a fantasy receiver as long as Tagovailoa's quality will also be on an upward trend.